For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Philadelphia Eagles 31 at Buffalo Bills 13. Final.
Bills -1 upsetO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles 31, Bills 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 3rd and 2, on Josh Allen — 21.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
25.4 mph wind
Bills closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Eagles +21.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 25.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 3rd and 2
Josh Allen
Eagles
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BUF 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at BUF 24. 55-B.Graham to BUF 24 for no gain (17-J.Allen). J.Allen credited with 4-yd. loss (to spot of recovery).
21.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Steven HauschkaBillsQ2 0:02(:02) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
19.0pts
Miles SandersEaglesQ3 14:14(14:14) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Bills at 6 of 15 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Eagles163 of 176 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BUF 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at BUF 24. 55-B.Graham to BUF 24 for no gain (17-J.Allen). J.Allen credited with 4-yd. los
Swing −21.3 for BillsExpected points −4.33 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00PHI +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BUF 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at BUF 24. 55-B.Graham to BUF 24 for no gain (17-J.Allen). J.Allen credited with 4-yd. loss (to spot of recovery).
2nd · 0:02BUF +19% win prob(:02) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
3rd · 14:14BUF +15% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:44BUF +12% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flare pass, caught at PHI 29.
3rd · 11:13BUF +11% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Beasley pushed ob at PHI 25 for 21 yards (23-R.McLeod). Caught near sideline at PHI 40, curling from flat.
1st · 1:47BUF +11% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 15-J.Brown ran ob at 50 for 9 yards [27-M.Jenkins]. Caught at sideline at BUF 49. PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dallas Goedert's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:30 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:42Jake Elliott·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–0
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.17Bills: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Eagles: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.09Bills: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Eagles: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.43Bills: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 6, Bills 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 7 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.2 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills16.7%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.0%, 18.3 points below their season mean of 56.3% and 2.1 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Steven Hauschka+21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:02) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q2 0:02 · Bills · 1st & 10 at PHI 35 · gained nothing · -0.99 EP · +20.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3480%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.1050%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.4350%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.220%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1314%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 29
Eagles3Bills0
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Bills 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Eagles 8
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Eagles3Bills6
Eagles3Bills7
Touchdown4 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bills 39
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Eagles 45
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 28
Eagles9Bills7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 5
Eagles11Bills7
No good6 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Eagles 35
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Eagles17Bills7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Eagles 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Eagles17Bills13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Eagles 25
Eagles23Bills13
Eagles24Bills13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Bills 4
Drive ended2 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 14
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 27
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays
Eagles30Bills13
Eagles31Bills13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Bills 3
Punt7 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from midfield to the Bills 21
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 28
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -1
Closing total
39.5
Eagles moneyline
+111
Bills moneyline
-122
Bills closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; a real wind at 25 mph out of the south-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Sean McDermott
NoteWind at 25.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 0:45BUF +8% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to PHI 17 for 13 yards (27-M.Jenkins). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at PHI 17.
3rd · 1:38PHI +8% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 15-J.Brown (21-R.Darby). Receiver and coverage at PHI 6, crossing from left.
Eaglescategory by categoryBills
Eagles3
Bills0
