2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · New Era Field

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -1 upsetO 39.5 ✓23 mph windBills closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, PHI +21% win probability on one snap. Played in 23 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:00PHI — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 2BUF 65%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BUF 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at BUF 24. 55-B.Graham to BUF 24 for no gain (17-J.Allen). J.Allen credited with 4-yd. los

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:00PHI +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BUF 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at BUF 24. 55-B.Graham to BUF 24 for no gain (17-J.Allen). J.Allen credited with 4-yd. loss (to spot of recovery).
Q2 · 0:02BUF +19% win prob(:02) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q3 · 14:14BUF +15% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:44BUF +12% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flare pass, caught at PHI 29.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Bills
Offensive plays	65	58
Total yards	375 (edge)	253
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	45% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	46%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	5	-2	2:09	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 19	7	21	2:42	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 20	4	9	1:56	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 27	9	47	4:35	Turnover on downs
5	BUF	BUF 25	12	56	3:50	Touchdown
6	PHI	PHI 25	10	36	5:14	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 20	8	35	3:34	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 20	7	20	3:33	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 20	3	4	0:34	Fumble
10	PHI	BUF 24	5	24	1:28	Touchdown
11	BUF	BUF 39	4	26	0:25	Turnover on downs
12	PHI	PHI 33	4	67	0:58	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 25	12	85	4:26	Touchdown
14	PHI	PHI 32	8	63	3:58	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 25	5	6	1:24	Punt
16	BUF	PHI 43	6	14	2:41	Turnover on downs
17	PHI	PHI 29	4	-7	1:42	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 38	4	0	0:22	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 17	15	83	8:17	Touchdown
20	BUF	BUF 32	5	-2	1:35	Punt
21	PHI	50	6	23	1:59	Turnover on downs
22	BUF	BUF 22	4	6	0:34	Turnover on downs
23	PHI	BUF 28	4	-2	1:31	Turnover on downs
24	BUF	BUF 34	1	16	0:33	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -1
Closing total: 39.5
PHI moneyline: +111
BUF moneyline: -122

Bills closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 23 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: PHI 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 23 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.