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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:14 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 27, Falcons 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 4th and 1, on M.Bryant — 4.8 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 4th and 1
M.Bryant
Seahawks
(15:00) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.
Seahawks closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Seahawks +4.8% win probability on one snap.
4.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK.MetcalfSeahawksQ2 11:51(11:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-DK.Metcalf for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.1pts
D.FreemanSeahawksQ4 12:57(12:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to SEA 1 for 7 yards (27-M.Blair; 50-K.Wright). FUMBLES (27-M.Blair), RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at SEA 1. 54-B.Wagner to SEA 6 for 5 yards (24-D.Freeman; 81-A.Hooper).
4.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 6 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Seahawks169 of 182 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.
Swing −4.8 for FalconsExpected points −3.24 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 31 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00SEA +5% win prob(15:00) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.
4th · 12:57SEA +4% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to SEA 1 for 7 yards (27-M.Blair; 50-K.Wright). FUMBLES (27-M.Blair), RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at SEA 1. 54-B.Wagner to SEA 6 for 5 yards (24-D.Freeman; 81-A.Hooper).
2nd · 11:51ATL +4% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-DK.Metcalf for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00ATL +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-M.Turner to SEA 46 for 21 yards (27-D.Kazee) [97-G.Jarrett].
2nd · 9:09SEA +3% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 56-M.Kendricks at ATL 47. 56-M.Kendricks to ATL 46 for 1 yard (51-A.Mack).
1st · 11:27SEA +3% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 83-D.Moore (26-I.Oliver).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Myers's 42-yard field goal with 11:22 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:22J.Myers·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+33–0
4th1:21M.Bryant·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder K.Redfern · snap J.Harris+327–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryFalcons
Seahawks4–3Falcons
324Total yards512
6.1Yards per play7.2
57%Success rate54%
33%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays6
18First downs30
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers3
The read
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Seahawks: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Seahawks: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.21Falcons: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.22Falcons: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 53 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Falcons’s 71 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons outgained Seahawks 512-324 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Falcons16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.0 pts, 7.4 points below their season mean of -2.7 pts and 1.3 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Germain IfediG · Every snap100%60 snaps
78D.J. FlukerOG · Every snap100%60 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time92%55 snaps
14D.K. MetcalfWR · Full-time92%55 snaps
53Joey HuntC · Full-time90%54 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Full-time88%53 snaps
70Mike IupatiOG · Full-time85%51 snaps
82Luke WillsonTE · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
32Chris CarsonRB · Heavy rotation68%41 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational48%29 snaps
48Jacob HollisterTE · Rotational35%21 snaps
74George FantOT · Rotational30%18 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Rotational30%18 snaps
18Jaron BrownWR · Rotational28%17 snaps
73Jamarco JonesT · Situational15%9 snaps
17Malik TurnerWR · Situational12%7 snaps
68Justin BrittC · Situational10%6 snaps
44Nick BelloreFB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre FlowersCBQuandre DiggsDBQuinton JeffersonDEC.J. ProsiseRBLano HillSSGary JenningsWRJohn UrsuaWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Schaub pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to SEA 1 for 7 yards (27-M.Blair; 50-K.Wright). FUMBLES (27-M.Blair), RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at SEA 1. 54-B.Wagner to SEA 6 for 5 yards (24-D.Freeman; 81-A.Hooper).
Q4 12:57 · Falcons · 1st & goal at SEA 8 · gained 7 · -5.56 EP · −12.4% win probability
167 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 14 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
834
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0693%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2445%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0665%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Seahawks3Falcons0
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Falcons 24
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 38
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Seahawks 39
2nd quarter53 plays
No good1 play
Seahawks9Falcons0
Seahawks10Falcons0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Falcons 4
Intercepted8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 45
Seahawks16Falcons0
Seahawks17Falcons0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Falcons 1
No good8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 35
Seahawks23Falcons0
Seahawks24Falcons0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Falcons 2
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 42
3rd quarter39 plays
Seahawks24Falcons6
Seahawks24Falcons8
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 23
Punt6 plays
Seahawks24Falcons11
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Seahawks 21
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 31
4th quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Seahawks 8
Seahawks27Falcons11
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Falcons 36
Seahawks27Falcons17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Falcons 45
Seahawks27Falcons20
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Seahawks 19
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
