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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 at Tennessee Titans 27. Final.
Titans -2 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Tennessee Titans 27, Buccaneers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 1, on P.Barber — 20.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 1
P.Barber
Titans
(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).
Titans closed -2 and covered, winning by 4.
Tennessee Titans 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Titans +20.5% win probability on one snap.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.EvansBuccaneersQ2 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.8pts
J.WinstonTitansQ4 6:13(6:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 34 for -8 yards (58-H.Landry). FUMBLES (58-H.Landry), RECOVERED by TEN-58-H.Landry at TB 36. 58-H.Landry to TB 36 for no gain (71-E.Watford).
17.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.48 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.70 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Buccaneers177 of 189 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).
Swing +20.5 for TitansExpected points +3.09 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00TB +20% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).
4th · 6:13TB +18% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 34 for -8 yards (58-H.Landry). FUMBLES (58-H.Landry), RECOVERED by TEN-58-H.Landry at TB 36. 58-H.Landry to TB 36 for no gain (71-E.Watford).
2nd · 0:21TEN +15% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:00TEN +13% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].
3rd · 13:01TEN +12% win prob(13:01) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at TEN 13 for 43 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
1st · 9:03TB +12% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 11, RECOVERED by TEN-97-I.Mack at TB 10. 97-I.Mack to TB 10 for no gain (3-J.Winston).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Brown's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:00 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:33M.Gay·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–0
3rd0:42C.Parkey·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+323–20
4th7:00A.Brown·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Tannehillfrom R.TannehillLead never changed again+723–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryTitans
Buccaneers5–3Titans
391Total yards248
5.1Yards per play4.5
43%Success rate36%
47%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays6
24First downs14
3Sacks taken3
4Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Buccaneers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Buccaneers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.09Titans: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.48Buccaneers: −0.48 expected points added per play
−0.70Titans: −0.70 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 77 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Titans 3.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Titans 391-248 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, +3.4 pts, is past their previous high of +1.6 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Titans13.2%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.4 pts, 9.6 points above their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Barber up−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).
Q4 2:00 · Buccaneers · 4th & 1 at TEN 32 · lost 1 · -3.09 EP · −19.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 90 yards from the TEN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.1764%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0593%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2247%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15-0.4140%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2245%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6-0.1783%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter53 plays
Buccaneers3Titans0
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Titans 4
Punt5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 21
Buccaneers3Titans6
Buccaneers3Titans7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Titans 43
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 1 to the Titans 49
Intercepted3 plays
Buccaneers3Titans13
Buccaneers3Titans14
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Buccaneers6Titans14
Field goal15 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Titans 25
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
Buccaneers9Titans14
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 4
Buccaneers9Titans17
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Buccaneers 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Buccaneers15Titans17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Titans 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Buccaneers21Titans17
Buccaneers23Titans17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Titans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Titans 43
Buccaneers23Titans20
Field goal12 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Buccaneers 24
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter4 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 30
3rd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
4th quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Buccaneers23Titans26
Buccaneers23Titans27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Buccaneers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 42
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Titans 32
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 36
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -2
Closing total
45.5
Buccaneers moneyline
+110
Titans moneyline
-122
Titans closed -2 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 50 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 60°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Buccaneers 14 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 3:29
TEN +11% win prob
(3:29) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left guard pushed ob at TB 48 for 20 yards (37-A.Hooker).
1st · 12:33TEN +11% win prob(12:33) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on TEN-36-L.Sims, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at TEN 47 - No Play.
