For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
BearsChicago14
BY 8final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia22
Chicago Bears 14 at Philadelphia Eagles 22. Final.
Eagles -5 ✓U 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Philadelphia Eagles 22, Bears 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:24, 3rd and 9, on D.Goedert — 8.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Eagles closed -5 and covered, winning by 8.
Philadelphia Eagles 22–14. Biggest swing: Q4 2:24, Eagles +8.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:24 · 3rd and 9
D.Goedert
Eagles
(2:24) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to CHI 28 for 16 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix; 39-E.Jackson).
8.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Z.ErtzEaglesQ1 10:52(10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CHI 25 for 15 yards (39-E.Jackson).
6.2pts
M.SandersEaglesQ4 4:44(4:44) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 26-M.Sanders to PHI 44 for 15 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
6.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 18 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Bears165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(2:24) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to CHI 28 for 16 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix; 39-E.Jackson).
Swing +8.4 for EaglesExpected points +1.03 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:24PHI +8% win prob(2:24) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to CHI 28 for 16 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix; 39-E.Jackson).
4th · 4:44PHI +7% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 26-M.Sanders to PHI 44 for 15 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
1st · 10:52PHI +6% win prob(10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CHI 25 for 15 yards (39-E.Jackson).
4th · 12:46PHI +5% win prob(12:46) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:27PHI +5% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:34PHI +5% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 16-M.Hollins [97-N.Williams]. PENALTY on CHI-97-N.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 38 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Elliott's 28-yard field goal with 6:48 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:48J.Elliott·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+30–3
2nd13:25J.Elliott·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+30–6
4th0:29J.Elliott·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+314–22
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryEagles
Bears2–6Eagles
164Total yards374
3.9Yards per play4.9
33%Success rate44%
20%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays5
9First downs23
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Bears: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Bears: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.06Eagles: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 42 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Eagles’s 77 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.8 pts in week 8 against +4.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
77 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Eagles20.0%
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.6 pts, 9.6 points below their season mean of -0.1 pts and 1.2 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%44 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%44 snaps
65Cody WhitehairOG · Every snap100%44 snaps
69Rashaad CowardOT · Every snap100%44 snaps
68James DanielsC · Every snap100%44 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%44 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time95%42 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation73%32 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Heavy rotation68%30 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Heavy rotation61%27 snaps
87Adam ShaheenTE · Rotational41%18 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Rotational41%18 snaps
81J.P. HoltzTE · Rotational39%17 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational36%16 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Situational18%8 snaps
73Cornelius LucasT · Situational14%6 snaps
83Javon WimsWR · Situational11%5 snaps
82Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Duke ShelleyDBAbdullah AndersonDTIsaiah IrvingLBJosh WoodsLBDeon BushSSAlex BarsTRiley RidleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CHI 25 for 15 yards (39-E.Jackson).
Q1 10:52 · Eagles · 4th & 2 at CHI 40 · gained 15 · +3.50 EP · +9.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
38%
Yards
537
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR42+0.1560%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0955%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.0871%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2640%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 31
Bears0Eagles3
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Bears 15
2nd quarter56 plays
Bears0Eagles6
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 7
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
Bears0Eagles12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Bears 15
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 41
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Bears 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 35
3rd quarter41 plays
Bears0Eagles18
Bears0Eagles19
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Bears 13
Bears6Eagles19
Bears7Eagles19
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Eagles 1
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 36
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 44
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 16
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 44
4th quarter42 plays
Bears13Eagles19
Bears14Eagles19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 1
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 48
Bears14Eagles22
Field goal21 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Bears 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bearscategory by categoryEagles
Bears0
Eagles3
