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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:02 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
BrownsCleveland19
BY 5final margin
BroncosDenver24
Cleveland Browns 19 at Denver Broncos 24. Final.
Browns -4 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Denver Broncos 24, Browns 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:09, 3rd and 1, on N.Chubb — 22.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:09 · 3rd and 1
N.Chubb
Broncos
(4:09) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to DEN 28 for -3 yards (31-J.Simmons).
22.9
O 39 ✓
Browns closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 24–19. Biggest swing: Q4 4:09, Broncos +22.9% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
N.FantBroncosQ2 12:48(12:48) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-O.Vernon].
15.8pts
O.BeckhamBrownsQ4 5:23(5:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at DEN 34 for 39 yards (31-J.Simmons).
18.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 5 trips, against Broncos at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Browns154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(4:09) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to DEN 28 for -3 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Swing +22.9 for BroncosExpected points +1.69 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 8 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:09CLE +23% win prob(4:09) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to DEN 28 for -3 yards (31-J.Simmons).
4th · 5:23DEN +19% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at DEN 34 for 39 yards (31-J.Simmons).
2nd · 12:48DEN +16% win prob(12:48) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-O.Vernon].
2nd · 6:20CLE +14% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 2 yards (53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (53-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at DEN 24. 21-D.Ward to DEN 18 for 6 yards (68-E.Wilkinson).
3rd · 5:23CLE +13% win prob(5:23) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to DEN 5 for no gain (51-T.Davis; 58-V.Miller). Cleveland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:16.)
4th · 2:36DEN +11% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-P.Lindsay. 30-P.Lindsay left end to DEN 45 for 16 yards (54-O.Vernon). CLE-54-O.Vernon was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Sutton's 21-yard touchdown catch with 6:16 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:16C.Sutton·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom B.Allenfrom B.AllenLead never changed again+70–7
2nd12:52A.Seibert·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–7
Browns ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Browns: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Browns: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.02Broncos: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.43Browns: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 73 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Broncos’s 40 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.4 pts in week 8 against +6.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Broncos8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 6.4 pts, 8.7 points above their season mean of -2.3 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Chubb left−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:09) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to DEN 28 for -3 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q4 4:09 · Browns · 3rd & 1 at DEN 25 · lost 3 · -1.69 EP · −15.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 95 yards from the DEN 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
653
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0573%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0928%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.1065%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.2259%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Browns0Broncos6
Browns0Broncos7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Browns 21
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Browns3Broncos7
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 21
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns3Broncos13
Browns3Broncos14
Touchdown3 plays
Browns6Broncos14
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Broncos 12
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 29
Browns9Broncos14
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 4
Browns9Broncos17
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Browns 25
Browns12Broncos17
Field goal18 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Broncos 5
Browns12Broncos23
Browns12Broncos24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Browns 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 25
4th quarter36 plays
Browns18Broncos24
Browns19Broncos24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Broncos 9
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Broncos 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
