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2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
LionsDetroit24
BY 7final margin
RaidersOakland31
Detroit Lions 24 at Oakland Raiders 31. Final.
Raiders -2.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Oakland Raiders 31, Lions 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:30, 1st and 20, on K.Golladay — 17.1 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:30 · 1st and 20
K.Golladay
Lions
(11:30) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Oakland Raiders 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 11:30, Lions +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ1 12:08(12:08) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 32, RECOVERED by LV-73-M.Hurst at LV 32. 73-M.Hurst to LV 32 for no gain (71-R.Wagner).
14.4pts
M.StaffordRaidersQ4 0:30(:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LV 14 for -10 yards (92-P.Hall).
14.3pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 98 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Lions171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(11:30) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.1 for RaidersExpected points −5.26 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:30OAK +17% win prob(11:30) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:08DET +14% win prob(12:08) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 32, RECOVERED by LV-73-M.Hurst at LV 32. 73-M.Hurst to LV 32 for no gain (71-R.Wagner).
4th · 0:30DET +14% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LV 14 for -10 yards (92-P.Hall).
2nd · 6:31DET +14% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Worley at LV -5. Touchback.
4th · 5:22OAK +12% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 41-J.McKissic for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:54OAK +11% win prob(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 19-K.Golladay [99-A.Key]. Penalty on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, declined. PENALTY on LV-26-N.Lawson, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at LV 34 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
H.Renfrow's 9-yard touchdown catch with 2:10 left in the 4th put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:10H.Renfrow·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Carrfrom D.CarrLead never changed again+724–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 9Against their seasonFourth Down
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 30.7 points above their season mean of 19.3% and 1.8 times their own 17.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Kenny WigginsG · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%69 snaps
—Ricky WagnerT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%69 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
66Joe DahlG · Full-time96%66 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time88%61 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Full-time83%57 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
31Ty JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Rotational38%26 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
17Marvin HallWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
46Nick BawdenFB · Situational13%9 snaps
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Situational7%5 snaps
26Paul PerkinsRB · Situational4%3 snaps
76Oday AboushiOG · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Graham GlasgowCAmani OruwariyeCBTracy WalkerDBMike JacksonDBMike DanielsDTBeau BenzschawelGDavid BloughQB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:30) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:30 · Lions · 1st & 20 at DET 41 · gained 59 · +5.26 EP · +18.7% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 83 yards from the DET 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
923
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2370%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2264%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0764%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.189%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.2267%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3638%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.9360%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Raiders 27
Lions0Raiders6
Lions0Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Lions 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Lions6Raiders7
Lions7Raiders7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Raiders 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Lions 22
2nd quarter51 plays
Lions7Raiders10
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 14
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Lions13Raiders10
Lions14Raiders10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Raiders 49
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Lions 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Raiders 20
Lions14Raiders16
Lions14Raiders17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Lions 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Raiders 47
3rd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
No good8 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Lions 27
Lions17Raiders17
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Raiders 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Lions 5
4th quarter59 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Lions17Raiders23
Lions17Raiders24
Touchdown3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Raiders 39
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 23
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 42
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Lions23Raiders24
Lions24Raiders24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Raiders 26
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Lions24Raiders30
Lions24Raiders31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Lions 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, four linebackers and two backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEleven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Raiders 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
