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2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Wembley Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

26

Jacksonville Jaguars

3

JAX -1 upsetU 46 ✓

Houston Texans 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:03, HOU +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAXHOU
Q3 · 9:03HOU JAX JAX ball · 4th & 14HOU 68%

(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun)

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 9:03HOU +10% win prob(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
  2. Q2 · 0:11HOU +9% win prob(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
  3. Q1 · 8:24JAX +9% win prob(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
  4. Q2 · 5:14JAX +9% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 23-R.Armstead pushed ob at HOU 40 for 31 yards (22-G.Conley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansJaguars
Offensive plays6366
Total yards410 (edge)356
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)-0.28
Success rate51% (edge)36%
Dropback rate51%83%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.55 (edge)-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.14-0.03 (edge)
Third downs4/114/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps2021 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)4

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 1914776:40Turnover on downs
2JAXJAX 197202:50Punt
3HOUHOU 67203:03Punt
4JAXJAX 286203:18Punt
5HOUHOU 2015808:14Touchdown
6JAXJAX 2512634:07Turnover on downs
7HOUHOU 2510451:42Turnover on downs
8JAXJAX 481170:06End of half
9JAXJAX 2511346:04Turnover on downs
10HOU507263:59Turnover on downs
11JAXJAX 258132:07Punt
12HOUHOU 216792:19Touchdown
13JAXJAX 2515554:33Turnover on downs
14HOUHOU 205192:49Punt
15JAXJAX 205311:38Interception
16HOUHOU 323611:48Fumble
17JAXJAX 20100:14Interception
18HOUJAX 3330:10Touchdown
19JAXJAX 253370:40Fumble
20HOUJAX 40401:49Punt
21JAXJAX 47661:50Fumble

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -1
Closing total
46
HOU moneyline
+103
JAX moneyline
-113

Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 29 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
53°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
HOU 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.