2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Wembley Stadium
Houston TexansWinner
26
Jacksonville Jaguars
3
Houston Texans 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:03, HOU +10% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun)
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 9:03HOU +10% win prob(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
- Q2 · 0:11HOU +9% win prob(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
- Q1 · 8:24JAX +9% win prob(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
- Q2 · 5:14JAX +9% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 23-R.Armstead pushed ob at HOU 40 for 31 yards (22-G.Conley).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 66 |
| Total yards | 410 (edge) | 356 |
| Yards per play | 6.5 (edge) | 5.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.21 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Success rate | 51% (edge) | 36% |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 83% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.55 (edge) | -0.33 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/11 | 4/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 4 |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 19 | 14 | 77 | 6:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 19 | 7 | 20 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 6 | 7 | 20 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 28 | 6 | 20 | 3:18 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 20 | 15 | 80 | 8:14 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 25 | 12 | 63 | 4:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 25 | 10 | 45 | 1:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 48 | 1 | 17 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 25 | 11 | 34 | 6:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | HOU | 50 | 7 | 26 | 3:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 25 | 8 | 13 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 21 | 6 | 79 | 2:19 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 25 | 15 | 55 | 4:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 20 | 5 | 19 | 2:49 | Punt | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 20 | 5 | 31 | 1:38 | Interception | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 32 | 3 | 61 | 1:48 | Fumble | |
| 17 | JAX | JAX 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:14 | Interception | |
| 18 | HOU | JAX 3 | 3 | 3 | 0:10 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 25 | 3 | 37 | 0:40 | Fumble | |
| 20 | HOU | JAX 40 | 4 | 0 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 21 | JAX | JAX 4 | 7 | 66 | 1:50 | Fumble |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- JAX -1
- Closing total
- 46
- HOU moneyline
- +103
- JAX moneyline
- -113
Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 29 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Wembley Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 53°F, wind 6 mph
- Referee
- Clete Blakeman
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · JAX 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill O'Brien vs Doug Marrone
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.