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Houston Texans 26 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Final.
Jaguars -1 upsetU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Houston Texans 26, Jaguars 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 9:03, 4th and 14, on L.Cooke — 10.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:03 · 4th and 14
L.Cooke
Texans
(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:03, Texans +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.FairbairnTexansQ1 8:24(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
8.8pts
K.FairbairnJaguarsQ2 0:11(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
9.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans161 of 168 plays carry both curves
(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun)
Swing −10.4 for JaguarsExpected points −3.83 for JaguarsThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 94
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:03HOU +10% win prob(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
2nd · 0:11HOU +9% win prob(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
1st · 8:24JAX +9% win prob(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
2nd · 5:14JAX +9% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 23-R.Armstead pushed ob at HOU 40 for 31 yards (22-G.Conley).
2nd · 9:22JAX +8% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 88-J.Akins pushed ob at JAX 27 for 12 yards (44-M.Jack).
3rd · 2:25JAX +6% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde right tackle ran ob at JAX 23 for 48 yards (31-B.Borders).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Fairbairn's 52-yard field goal with 8:24 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:24K.Fairbairn·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+33–0
Texans ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.28Jaguars: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Texans: +0.55 expected points added per play
−0.33Jaguars: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 66 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Jaguars 2.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's early-down pass rate, 81.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 7.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 69.8% in week 2.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 8.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Jaguars21.9%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.1%, 18.8 points above their season mean of 62.3% and 1.7 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Fairbairn−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q2 0:11 · Texans · 4th & 3 at JAX 40 · gained nothing · -1.48 EP · −16.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 80 yards from the HOU 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
766
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2483%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35+0.1940%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2656%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1363%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Texans3Jaguars0
Field goal17 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Jaguars 34
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 39
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Texans 26
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 41
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 43
Texans9Jaguars0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Jaguars 1
Texans9Jaguars3
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 12
No good13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 23
Texans12Jaguars3
Field goal10 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 17
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 38
Texans18Jaguars3
Texans19Jaguars3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Texans 20
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 39
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Texans 49
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 40
Intercepted1 play
Texans25Jaguars3
Texans26Jaguars3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 1
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 44
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Texans 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -1
Closing total
46
Texans moneyline
+103
Jaguars moneyline
-113
Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 29 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Texans 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Doug Marrone
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 10:18HOU +6% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. ran ob at HOU 4 for 19 yards. PENALTY on JAX-17-D.Chark Jr., Offensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.
1st · 4:21JAX +6% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-K.Stills to HOU 19 for 11 yards (37-T.Herndon) [93-C.Campbell]. HOU-12-K.Stills was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans3
Jaguars0
