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Indianapolis Colts 24 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26. Final.
Steelers -1 ✓O 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Colts 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:14, 4th and 4, on A.Vinatieri — 46.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 4th and 4
A.Vinatieri
Steelers
(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Steelers +46.5% win probability on one snap.
46.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.FitzpatrickSteelersQ2 2:36(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep middle intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick [97-C.Heyward] at PIT 4. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
31.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ3 1:054-J.Berry kicks 67 yards from PIT 20 to IND 13. 80-C.Rogers to IND 17 for 4 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 33-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-80-J.Holton at IND 17. 80-J.Holton to IND 17 for no gain (14-Z.Pascal).
21.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Colts162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Swing +46.5 for SteelersExpected points +2.27 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 15 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:14IND +46% win prob(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
2nd · 2:36IND +31% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep middle intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick [97-C.Heyward] at PIT 4. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:05IND +22% win prob4-J.Berry kicks 67 yards from PIT 20 to IND 13. 80-C.Rogers to IND 17 for 4 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 33-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-80-J.Holton at IND 17. 80-J.Holton to IND 17 for no gain (14-Z.Pascal).
4th · 2:20PIT +21% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep left to 14-Z.Pascal. PENALTY on PIT-22-S.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, 35 yards, enforced at IND 15 - No Play. Pittsburgh challenged the defensive pass interference ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
4th · 12:04IND +20% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 38-J.Samuels to PIT 29 for 1 yard (39-M.Tell III). FUMBLES (39-M.Tell III), RECOVERED by IND-99-J.Houston at PIT 30. 99-J.Houston to PIT 30 for no gain (89-V.McDonald).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Boswell's 26-yard field goal with 6:39 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:12A.Vinatieri·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
1st1:01C.Boswell·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–3
4th6:39C.Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.CanadayLead never changed again+324–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categorySteelers
Colts6–3Steelers
328Total yards275
5.0Yards per play4.7
44%Success rate32%
33%Third-down rate38%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays2
21First downs14
5Sacks taken1
3Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Colts: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.17Steelers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Colts: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Colts: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.29Steelers: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 66 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Steelers 4.
NoteColts outgained Steelers 328-275 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers20.5%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 4.7 points below their season mean of 12.8% and 1.1 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
46 dressed · 7 inactive
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%70 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%70 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time94%66 snaps
2Brian HoyerQB · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
63Josh AndrewsOG · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
15Parris CampbellWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Rotational34%24 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational30%21 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Rotational30%21 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
11Deon CainWR · Rotational29%20 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Situational21%15 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational19%13 snaps
73Joe HaegT · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Pierre DesirCBQuincy WilsonCBTyquan LewisDTCarl DavisNTLe'Raven ClarkOGJonathan WilliamsRBT.Y. HiltonWR
Pittsburgh Steelers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
67B.J. FinneyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%62 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%62 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%62 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
2Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Full-time81%50 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Vinatieri−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 1:14 · Colts · 4th & 4 at PIT 25 · gained nothing · -2.27 EP · −37.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
601
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.2161%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0177%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1867%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR10-0.0310%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2989%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Colts 46
Colts3Steelers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 7
Colts3Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Colts 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Colts 43
2nd quarter47 plays
Colts9Steelers3
Colts10Steelers3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 7
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Colts 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Colts10Steelers9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Steelers 20
Colts10Steelers10
Colts16Steelers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Steelers 14
Colts16Steelers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Colts 33
3rd quarter40 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Steelers 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Colts16Steelers19
Colts16Steelers20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Colts 7
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Steelers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Colts18Steelers20
Drive ended3 plays, from the Steelers 1 to the Steelers 8
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Colts18Steelers23
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts24Steelers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Colts24Steelers26
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Colts 7
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 42
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
No good10 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Steelers 22
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -1
Closing total
39.5
Colts moneyline
+107
Steelers moneyline
-117
Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 50 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 45°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Colts 7 days · Steelers 6 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Mike Tomlin
4th · 8:47
PIT +19% win prob
(8:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 80-C.Rogers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:09PIT +15% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal pushed ob at PIT 31 for 19 yards (22-S.Nelson). Pittsburgh challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
4th · 8:43PIT +13% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington to IND 35 for 40 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin).
