2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Heinz Field

Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -1 ✓O 39.5 ✓Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, IND +46% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:14IND — PIT IND ball · 4th & 4IND 60%

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:14IND +46% win prob(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q2 · 2:36IND +31% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep middle intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick [97-C.Heyward] at PIT 4. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:05IND +22% win prob4-J.Berry kicks 67 yards from PIT 20 to IND 13. 80-C.Rogers to IND 17 for 4 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 33-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (92-O.Adeniyi), RECOVERED by PIT-80-J.Holton at IND 17. 80-J.Holton to IND 17 for no gain (14-Z.Pascal).
Q4 · 2:20PIT +21% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep left to 14-Z.Pascal. PENALTY on PIT-22-S.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, 35 yards, enforced at IND 15 - No Play. Pittsburgh challenged the defensive pass interference ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Steelers
Offensive plays	66	59
Total yards	328 (edge)	275
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	44% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	59%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.29
Third downs	4/12	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Colts outgained Steelers 328–275 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	7	26	2:40	Interception
2	IND	PIT 35	8	23	5:11	Turnover on downs
3	PIT	PIT 25	12	72	6:11	Turnover on downs
4	IND	IND 37	10	68	4:01	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 14	11	56	5:56	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 35	7	45	3:40	Defensive touchdown
7	IND	IND 25	8	60	1:39	Touchdown
8	PIT	PIT 20	7	32	0:42	End of half
9	IND	IND 35	10	19	4:20	Fumble
10	PIT	PIT 46	12	39	5:15	Touchdown
11	IND	IND 24	8	42	2:52	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 1	3	-1	1:28	Turnover on downs
13	IND	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
14	PIT	IND 17	4	2	1:01	Turnover on downs
15	IND	IND 27	5	5	1:35	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 25	3	4	1:27	Fumble
17	IND	PIT 30	8	30	3:12	Touchdown
18	PIT	PIT 25	7	43	2:07	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 25	7	11	2:38	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 35	4	2	1:30	Punt
21	IND	IND 15	8	25	1:17	Turnover on downs
22	PIT	PIT 33	2	0	1:11	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -1
Closing total: 39.5
IND moneyline: +107
PIT moneyline: -117

Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 50 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: IND 7 days · PIT 6 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Tomlin