2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium
Minnesota Vikings
23
Kansas City ChiefsWinner
26
Kansas City Chiefs 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 6:25, KC +23% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 6:25KC +23% win prob(6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 0:03KC +18% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
- Q4 · 0:59KC +17% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce to MIN 39 for 17 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).
- Q4 · 4:53KC +16% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to MIN 19 for 41 yards (26-T.Waynes) [98-L.Joseph].
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Vikings | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 57 |
| Total yards | 308 | 377 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.6 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.06 | 0.14 (edge) |
| Success rate | 32% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 61% | 68% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.24 (edge) | 0.07 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.23 | 0.30 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/15 (edge) | 4/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 17 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:23 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 28 | 4 | 7 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 18 | 4 | 9 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 4 | KC | KC 33 | 8 | 67 | 3:15 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | MIN | MIN 25 | 14 | 65 | 5:31 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | KC | KC 20 | 5 | 9 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIN | MIN 36 | 4 | 9 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 8 | KC | KC 9 | 17 | 85 | 8:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 10 | KC | KC 26 | 4 | -6 | 1:16 | Punt | |
| 11 | MIN | MIN 32 | 12 | 57 | 1:36 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | KC | — | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 13 | KC | — | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Fumble | |
| 14 | MIN | KC 38 | 6 | 48 | 3:01 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | KC | KC 28 | 5 | 8 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 16 | MIN | MIN 20 | 6 | 40 | 3:06 | Punt | |
| 17 | KC | KC 3 | 3 | 97 | 0:48 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | MIN | MIN 25 | 6 | 17 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 19 | KC | KC 34 | 7 | 39 | 2:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | MIN | MIN 25 | 13 | 75 | 4:31 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 14 | 3:12 | Punt | |
| 22 | MIN | MIN 28 | 4 | 0 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 23 | KC | KC 26 | 8 | 38 | 4:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | -7 | 0:43 | Punt | |
| 25 | KC | MIN 45 | 5 | 19 | 1:47 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 97 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- MIN -5.5
- Closing total
- 46
- MIN moneyline
- -225
- KC moneyline
- +198
Vikings closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- 54°F, wind 15 mph
- Referee
- Alex Kemp
- Rest
- MIN 10 days · KC 7 days
- Coaches
- Mike Zimmer vs Andy Reid
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.