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Minnesota Vikings 23 at Kansas City Chiefs 26. Final.
Vikings -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Vikings 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 6:25, 2nd and 4, on Dam.Williams — 23.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:25 · 2nd and 4
Dam.Williams
Chiefs
(6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.2
O 46 ✓
Vikings closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Kansas City Chiefs 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 6:25, Chiefs +23.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.KelceChiefsQ4 0:59(:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce to MIN 39 for 17 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).
16.6pts
H.ButkerChiefsQ4 0:03(:03) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
18.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 1 giveaway.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Vikings167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +23.2 for ChiefsExpected points +7.10 for ChiefsThe model had Chiefs 13 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:25KC +23% win prob(6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03KC +18% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4th · 0:59KC +17% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce to MIN 39 for 17 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).
4th · 4:53KC +16% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to MIN 19 for 41 yards (26-T.Waynes) [98-L.Joseph].
4th · 3:27MIN +15% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore sacked at MIN 33 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], and recovers at MIN 36. 8-M.Moore to MIN 36 for no gain (97-E.Griffen).
1st · 14:44KC +15% win prob(14:44) 2-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 28, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.
4th · 2:36
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
H.Butker's 44-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:36H.Butker·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+323–23
4th0:03H.Butker·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+323–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryChiefs
Vikings5–4Chiefs
308Total yards377
4.7Yards per play6.6
32%Success rate51%
33%Third-down rate31%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays4
16First downs17
1Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Vikings: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Vikings: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.30Chiefs: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 66 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 57 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Chiefs 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 8 against 25.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.3% in week 8 against 10.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chiefs10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 7.9 points above their season mean of 15.2% and 1.7 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Dam.Williams up+26% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 6:25 · Chiefs · 2nd & 4 at KC 9 · gained 91 · +7.10 EP · +26.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 97 yards from the KC 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
685
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0177%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.1169%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.3762%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.2331%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.0169%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.8860%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 35
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 27
Vikings0Chiefs6
Vikings0Chiefs7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Vikings 40
Vikings6Chiefs7
Vikings7Chiefs7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 45
Vikings7Chiefs10
Field goal19 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Vikings 5
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
Punt4 plays
Vikings10Chiefs10
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Vikings16Chiefs10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Chiefs 16
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 36
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Chiefs 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Vikings16Chiefs16
Vikings16Chiefs17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Chiefs 9
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 42
Vikings16Chiefs20
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Vikings 25
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Vikings22Chiefs20
Vikings23Chiefs20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chiefs 3
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSeven
Vikings23Chiefs23
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Vikings 19
Punt5 plays
Vikings23Chiefs26
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
