2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium

New England Patriots

Baltimore RavensWinner

NE -3 upsetO 44.5 ✓Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:39, NE +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:39NE — BAL NE ball · 1st & 10NE 60%

(12:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to BAL 30 for no gain (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at BAL 30. 44-M.Humphrey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:39NE +35% win prob(12:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to BAL 30 for no gain (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at BAL 30. 44-M.Humphrey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:38NE +12% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right guard to BAL 16 for 5 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at BAL 19. 93-L.Guy to BAL 19 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
Q2 · 12:50BAL +9% win prob(12:50) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 27-C.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at BAL 20. 29-J.Bethel to BAL 20 for no gain (27-C.Jones).
Q1 · 8:36BAL +9% win prob(8:36) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on NE-90-S.Calhoun, Neutral Zone Infraction, 3 yards, enforced at NE 6 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Ravens
Offensive plays	65	62
Total yards	342	375 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	51%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	5/13	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	13	72	6:47	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 25	5	0	0:24	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 25	11	54	5:20	Turnover on downs
4	NE	NE 25	6	4	1:48	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 23	4	72	1:35	Touchdown
6	NE	NE 31	5	9	1:25	Punt
7	NE	BAL 20	5	20	0:39	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 25	5	4	1:36	Punt
9	NE	NE 21	8	62	3:07	Fumble
10	BAL	BAL 6	2	10	0:50	Fumble
11	NE	BAL 19	6	25	2:48	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	BAL 19	7	15	1:58	Punt
13	NE	NE 18	8	66	1:35	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 17	2	0	0:08	End of half
15	NE	NE 25	9	45	2:39	Defensive touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	13	75	4:18	Touchdown
17	BAL	BAL 19	16	86	8:09	Touchdown
18	NE	NE 25	8	27	2:07	Interception
19	BAL	BAL 32	15	62	9:35	Touchdown
20	NE	NE 26	8	9	2:09	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 9	2	0	1:03	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 86 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 44.5
NE moneyline: -150
BAL moneyline: +135

Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 57 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NE 7 days · BAL 14 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs John Harbaugh