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2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
JetsNew York18
BY 8final margin
DolphinsMiami26
New York Jets 18 at Miami Dolphins 26. Final.
Jets -3.5 upsetO 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Miami Dolphins 26, Jets 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:54, 2nd and 2, on J.Wiltz — 14.4 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:54 · 2nd and 2
J.Wiltz
Dolphins
(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Wiltz [52-R.McMillan] at MIA 1. 33-J.Wiltz to MIA 1 for no gain (82-J.Crowder).
Jets closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 26–18. Biggest swing: Q2 0:54, Dolphins +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
P.WilliamsDolphinsQ2 14:52(14:52) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ2 1:517-J.Sanders kicks 61 yards from MIA 35 to NYJ 4. 17-V.Smith pushed ob at MIA 18 for 78 yards (26-S.Parker).
10.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 14 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Jets at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jets171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Wiltz [52-R.McMillan] at MIA 1. 33-J.Wiltz to MIA 1 for no gain (82-J.Crowder).
Swing +14.4 for DolphinsExpected points +4.93 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 13 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:54NYJ +14% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Wiltz [52-R.McMillan] at MIA 1. 33-J.Wiltz to MIA 1 for no gain (82-J.Crowder).
2nd · 14:52MIA +12% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:51MIA +11% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 61 yards from MIA 35 to NYJ 4. 17-V.Smith pushed ob at MIA 18 for 78 yards (26-S.Parker).
2nd · 3:49MIA +9% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki to NYJ 14 for 34 yards (58-J.Burgess).
2nd · 6:19MIA +9% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Parker for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:42MIA +8% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins]. PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Parker's 17-yard touchdown catch with 6:19 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
2nd0:48J.Burgess·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+29–21
2nd0:06S.Ficken·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+312–21
3rd6:52S.Ficken·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+315–21
3rd1:05J.Sanders·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+315–24
4th6:33Dolphins·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+215–26
4th0:19S.Ficken·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+318–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Jets2–6Dolphins
321Total yards323
5.2Yards per play5.2
44%Success rate44%
36%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays3
16First downs19
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.11Dolphins: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Jets: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.35Dolphins: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Jets: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.40Dolphins: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 62 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Dolphins 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 23.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 18.4% in week 8.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +14.3 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +5.1 pts in week 8.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.1 pts in week 8 against −8.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins23.8%
off script — got home · +13.0 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+2.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 10.8% and 2.5 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%67 snaps
71Alex LewisG · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Every snap100%67 snaps
67Brian WintersG · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Chuma EdogaT · Every snap100%67 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time96%64 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Full-time93%62 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Full-time91%61 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time85%57 snaps
18Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational12%8 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational9%6 snaps
29Bilal PowellRB · Situational9%6 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ryan KalilCTrumaine JohnsonCBRontez MilesFSC.J. MosleyILBNeville HewittOLBKelvin BeachumTJosh BellamyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
David FalesQBConor McDermottTChris HerndonTE
Miami Dolphins
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
63Michael DeiterOG · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Evan BoehmG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%69 snaps
61J'Marcus WebbT · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time83%57 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
22Mark WaltonHB · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
18Preston WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Rotational43%30 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Rotational36%25 snaps
74Keaton SutherlandG · Rotational36%25 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Rotational30%21 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Situational20%14 snaps
38Chandler CoxFB · Situational17%12 snaps
87Clive WalfordTE · Situational14%10 snaps
Inactive · 7
Daniel KilgoreCKen WebsterDBShaq CalhounGAvery MossOLBMyles GaskinRBReshad JonesSSIsaiah PrinceT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Sam EguavoenLBJosh RosenQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:52) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:52 · Dolphins · 3rd & 10 at NYJ 12 · gained 12 · +3.10 EP · +12.6% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 92 yards from the MIA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0869%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2273%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.2160%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0633%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0760%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Jets6Dolphins0
Jets7Dolphins0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 12
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Dolphins 13
No good12 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Dolphins 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Jets 38
2nd quarter58 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jets7Dolphins6
Jets7Dolphins7
Touchdown4 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 48
Jets7Dolphins13
Jets7Dolphins14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Jets 17
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
Jets7Dolphins20
Jets7Dolphins21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Jets 3
Intercepted7 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 2
Jets9Dolphins21
Jets12Dolphins21
Field goal5 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
No good10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 26
Jets15Dolphins21
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Dolphins 22
Jets15Dolphins24
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Jets 3
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Jets 44
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 17
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Jets 39
Jets15Dolphins26
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Jets 35
Jets18Dolphins26
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Dolphins 11
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -3.5
Closing total
42.5
Jets moneyline
-187
Dolphins moneyline
+167
Jets closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 44 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-west; 0.39 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Jets 7 days · Dolphins 6 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Brian Flores
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 2:38MIA +8% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep left to 18-P.Williams (27-D.Roberts). PENALTY on NYJ-27-D.Roberts, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play.
1st · 11:33MIA +8% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-D.Thomas pushed ob at MIA 17 for 15 yards (21-E.Rowe; 40-N.Needham).
