2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
New York Jets
18
Miami DolphinsWinner
26
Miami Dolphins 26–18. Biggest swing: Q2 0:54, NYJ +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Wiltz [52-R.McMillan] at MIA 1. 33-J.Wiltz to MIA 1 for no gain (82-J.Crowder).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 0:54NYJ +14% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Wiltz [52-R.McMillan] at MIA 1. 33-J.Wiltz to MIA 1 for no gain (82-J.Crowder).
- Q2 · 14:52MIA +12% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 1:51MIA +11% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 61 yards from MIA 35 to NYJ 4. 17-V.Smith pushed ob at MIA 18 for 78 yards (26-S.Parker).
- Q2 · 3:49MIA +9% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki to NYJ 14 for 34 yards (58-J.Burgess).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jets | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 62 |
| Total yards | 321 | 323 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 5.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 | 0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 68% | 68% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.05 | 0.35 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 (edge) | -0.40 |
| Third downs | 5/14 | 6/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 13 | 80 | 5:23 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | MIA | MIA 8 | 5 | -2 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 3 | NYJ | NYJ 37 | 10 | 42 | 5:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | MIA | MIA 39 | 8 | 61 | 2:17 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 7 | 36 | 3:18 | Punt | |
| 6 | MIA | MIA 16 | 13 | 77 | 5:16 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 10 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 44 | 8 | 56 | 2:46 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | NYJ | MIA 18 | 5 | 14 | 1:03 | Interception | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 1 | 1 | -1 | 0:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | NYJ | 50 | 5 | 16 | 0:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | MIA | — | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | End of half | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 25 | 9 | 39 | 3:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 39 | 9 | 39 | 4:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 24 | 12 | 43 | 5:46 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 39 | 6 | 25 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ 15 | 4 | 2 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 45 | 6 | 16 | 2:51 | Punt | |
| 20 | NYJ | NYJ 7 | 1 | 0 | 0:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | MIA | MIA 48 | 7 | 9 | 3:39 | Punt | |
| 22 | NYJ | NYJ 8 | 14 | 76 | 2:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | MIA | NYJ 46 | 3 | 0 | 0:15 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NYJ -3.5
- Closing total
- 42.5
- NYJ moneyline
- -187
- MIA moneyline
- +167
Jets closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 44 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 85°F, wind 11 mph
- Referee
- Walt Anderson
- Rest
- NYJ 7 days · MIA 6 days
- Coaches
- Adam Gase vs Brian Flores
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.