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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 9 · Thu, Oct 31, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco28
BY 3final margin
CardinalsArizona25
San Francisco 49ers 28 at Arizona Cardinals 25. Final.
49ers -10.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
San Francisco 49ers 28, Cardinals 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:09, 2nd and 8, on A.Isabella — 9.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:09 · 2nd and 8
A.Isabella
Cardinals
(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
49ers closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:09, Cardinals +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.MurrayCardinalsQ1 13:45(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SF 38 for -4 yards (55-D.Ford). PENALTY on SF-55-D.Ford, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34 - No Play.
9.0pts
G.Kittle49ersQ1 0:13(:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.3pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 11 of 17 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 8 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.25 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.18 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on 49ers159 of 173 plays carry both curves
(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.6 for CardinalsExpected points +7.35 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 3 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:09ARI +10% win prob(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:45ARI +9% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SF 38 for -4 yards (55-D.Ford). PENALTY on SF-55-D.Ford, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34 - No Play.
1st · 0:13ARI +8% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:46SF +7% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 43 for -12 yards (55-D.Ford).
4th · 2:00ARI +6% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 82-R.Dwelley to ARI 37 for 11 yards (27-K.Peterson).
2nd · 14:01SF +6% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 17 for -19 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
2nd · 9:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Bourne's 7-yard touchdown catch with 9:05 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2249ers: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.21Cardinals: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.5549ers: +0.55 expected points added per play
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.2449ers: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.25Cardinals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 67 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 51 at 57%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Cardinals 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Cardinals12.8%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 10.3% against a season mean of 15.5% — and SF swings 5.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:09 · Cardinals · 2nd & 8 at ARI 12 · gained 88 · +7.35 EP · +16.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 90 yards from the ARI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
43%
Yards
770
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR41-0.0941%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4664%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.7180%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0231%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.4840%
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Cardinals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
49ers0Cardinals6
49ers0Cardinals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the 49ers 4
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the 49ers 30
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the 49ers 40
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
49ers6Cardinals7
49ers7Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Cardinals 30
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 36
49ers13Cardinals7
49ers14Cardinals7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Cardinals 7
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 39
49ers20Cardinals7
49ers21Cardinals7
Touchdown20 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Cardinals 1
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 42
49ers21Cardinals13
49ers21Cardinals14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the 49ers 9
49ers27Cardinals14
49ers28Cardinals14
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 21
Punt7 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Cardinals 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 28
4th quarter41 plays
49ers28Cardinals17
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the 49ers 14
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
49ers28Cardinals23
49ers28Cardinals25
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 12
The period ended16 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Cardinals 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -10.5
Closing total
43.5
49ers moneyline
-445
Cardinals moneyline
+365
49ers closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
49ers 4 days · Cardinals 4 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Kliff Kingsbury
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
ARI +5% win prob
(9:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:27ARI +5% win prob(2:27) 26-T.Coleman left end pushed ob at ARI 49 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks). Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
