2019 Week 9 · Thu, Oct 31, 2019 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

SF -10.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓Dome49ers closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:09, ARI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:09SF — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 8SF 97%

(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:09ARI +10% win prob(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:45ARI +9% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SF 38 for -4 yards (55-D.Ford). PENALTY on SF-55-D.Ford, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34 - No Play.
Q1 · 0:13ARI +8% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:46SF +7% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 43 for -12 yards (55-D.Ford).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	67	51
Total yards	413 (edge)	359
Yards per play	6.2	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	0.21
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.55 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.25 (edge)
Third downs	11/17 (edge)	2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.21.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 29	8	56	2:49	Touchdown
2	SF	SF 23	5	12	2:26	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 32	5	1	2:37	Punt
4	SF	SF 33	4	8	1:32	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 9	4	5	1:06	Punt
6	SF	SF 41	9	54	4:26	Touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 26	7	-6	2:36	Punt
8	SF	SF 24	8	86	3:30	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 10	10	26	4:00	Punt
10	SF	SF 20	14	90	4:58	Touchdown
11	SF	SF 28	8	7	3:18	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 17	8	88	2:41	Touchdown
13	SF	SF 25	9	75	3:06	Touchdown
14	ARI	ARI 25	5	12	2:28	Punt
15	SF	SF 39	6	16	2:26	Punt
16	ARI	ARI 7	13	85	6:37	Turnover on downs
17	SF	SF 17	8	23	3:56	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 10	3	92	0:35	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 26	12	42	4:53	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -10.5
Closing total: 43.5
SF moneyline: -445
ARI moneyline: +365

49ers closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bradley Rogers
Rest: SF 4 days · ARI 4 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.