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2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · CenturyLink Field
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay34
BY 6final margin
SeahawksSeattle40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 at Seattle Seahawks 40. Final.
Seahawks -4 ✓O 51 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Seattle Seahawks 40, Buccaneers 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 1, on J.Myers — 36.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 1
J.Myers
Buccaneers
(:03) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Seattle Seahawks 40–34. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Buccaneers +36.0% win probability on one snap.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.WinstonSeahawksQ4 10:48(10:48) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at SEA 48 for -8 yards (56-M.Kendricks). FUMBLES (56-M.Kendricks) [98-R.Green], RECOVERED by SEA-98-R.Green at SEA 49. 98-R.Green to TB 15 for 36 yards (13-M.Evans).
26.9pts
DK.MetcalfSeahawksOT 6:55(6:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf to TB 6 for 29 yards (35-J.Dean).
24.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 8 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 4 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Buccaneers192 of 204 plays carry both curves
(:03) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Swing −36.0 for SeahawksExpected points −2.55 for SeahawksThe model had Buccaneers 8 points higher than the market did.play 190
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03TB +36% win prob(:03) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 10:48TB +27% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at SEA 48 for -8 yards (56-M.Kendricks). FUMBLES (56-M.Kendricks) [98-R.Green], RECOVERED by SEA-98-R.Green at SEA 49. 98-R.Green to TB 15 for 36 yards (13-M.Evans).
Overtime · 6:55SEA +24% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf to TB 6 for 29 yards (35-J.Dean).
4th · 11:42TB +20% win prob(11:42) 32-C.Carson left end to SEA 43 for 3 yards (45-D.White; 28-V.Hargreaves). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 32-C.Carson left end to SEA 42 for 2 yards (45-D.White; 28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (45-D.White), RECOVERED by TB-31-J.Whitehead at SEA 45.
4th · 4:34SEA +19% win prob(4:34) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-DK.Metcalf for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:36SEA +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Hollister's 10-yard touchdown catch with 6:27 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime6:27J.Hollister·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Wilsonfrom R.WilsonLead never changed again+634–40
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categorySeahawks
Buccaneers2–5Seahawks
418Total yards494
5.8Yards per play7.2
47%Success rate51%
43%Third-down rate25%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays7
26First downs28
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Buccaneers: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.36Seahawks: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.15Seahawks: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 72 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 69 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Seahawks 7.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, +8.8 pts, is past their previous high of +3.8 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 8.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.2% in week 8 against 65.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Seahawks6.4%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.8 pts, 11.5 points above their season mean of -2.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Myers−28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:03) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:03 · Seahawks · 3rd & 1 at TB 22 · gained nothing · -2.55 EP · −27.7% win probability
190 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 204 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 85 yards from the SEA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
912
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0778%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2280%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2647%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4833%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.360%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Buccaneers6Seahawks0
Buccaneers7Seahawks0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Seahawks 8
Buccaneers7Seahawks6
Buccaneers7Seahawks7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Buccaneers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Buccaneers13Seahawks7
Buccaneers14Seahawks7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Seahawks 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
2nd quarter50 plays
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Buccaneers 29
Buccaneers20Seahawks7
Buccaneers21Seahawks7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Seahawks 1
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 40
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers21Seahawks13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Buccaneers 1
No good6 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Seahawks 32
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to midfield
Buccaneers21Seahawks19
Buccaneers21Seahawks21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Buccaneers 1
Buccaneers24Seahawks21
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Seahawks 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Buccaneers 40
4th quarter58 plays
Buccaneers24Seahawks24
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Seahawks 40
Buccaneers24Seahawks27
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 4
Buccaneers27Seahawks27
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Seahawks 27
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Buccaneers27Seahawks33
Buccaneers27Seahawks34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 47
Buccaneers33Seahawks34
Buccaneers34Seahawks34
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Seahawks 1
No good10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Buccaneers 22
Overtime13 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers34Seahawks40
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Buccaneers 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -4
Closing total
51
Buccaneers moneyline
+185
Seahawks moneyline
-209
Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 51; the game landed 74 — over by 23.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Pete Carroll
(8:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson to TB 44 for 15 yards (31-J.Whitehead).
3rd · 0:48SEA +13% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at TB 40 for 30 yards (39-A.Adams).
3rd · 10:49SEA +13% win prob(10:49) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right tackle to TB 26 for 59 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White), ball out of bounds at TB 24.
