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2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee20
BY 10final margin
PanthersCarolina30
Tennessee Titans 20 at Carolina Panthers 30. Final.
Panthers -3.5 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Carolina Panthers 30, Titans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:47, 4th and 1, on R.Succop — 9.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:47 · 4th and 1
R.Succop
Panthers
(9:47) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Panthers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Carolina Panthers 30–20. Biggest swing: Q1 9:47, Panthers +9.7% win probability on one snap.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
H.LandryTitansQ1 6:55(6:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 13-J.Wright INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (24-K.Vaccaro) at TEN 26. 58-H.Landry to TEN 26 for no gain (13-J.Wright).
8.4pts
D.JacksonPanthersQ2 9:58(9:58) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at TEN 31. 26-D.Jackson to TEN 31 for no gain (64-N.Davis). PENALTY on TEN-84-C.Davis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 30. Penalty on TEN-11-A.Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
8.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 7 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Titans177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(9:47) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Swing +9.7 for PanthersExpected points +4.06 for PanthersThe model had Titans 6 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:47TEN +10% win prob(9:47) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
1st · 6:55TEN +8% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 13-J.Wright INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (24-K.Vaccaro) at TEN 26. 58-H.Landry to TEN 26 for no gain (13-J.Wright).
2nd · 9:58TEN +8% win prob(9:58) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at TEN 31. 26-D.Jackson to TEN 31 for no gain (64-N.Davis). PENALTY on TEN-84-C.Davis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 30. Penalty on TEN-11-A.Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 13:34CAR +8% win prob(13:34) 4-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
1st · 12:02CAR +7% win prob(12:02) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Sharpe. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at TEN 24 - No Play.
2nd · 14:15TEN +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Slye's 35-yard field goal with 13:34 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:34J.Slye·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+30–3
4th10:33C.McCaffrey·58-yd TD run58-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by D.Cruikshank+614–30
4th2:58R.Tannehill·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+620–30
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryPanthers
Titans6–3Panthers
431Total yards372
6.8Yards per play5.6
51%Success rate42%
38%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays7
23First downs20
4Sacks taken3
3Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.09Panthers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Titans: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.12Panthers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Titans: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.05Panthers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 63 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Panthers’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Panthers 5.
NoteTitans outgained Panthers 431-372 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 8 against 42.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Panthers15.6%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.9%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 49.4% and 1.8 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%72 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%72 snaps
75Jamil DouglasOG · Every snap100%72 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Heavy rotation78%56 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Heavy rotation69%50 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation64%46 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Rotational47%34 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational44%32 snaps
14Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational29%21 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational28%20 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Situational15%11 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ben JonesCChris MiltonCBJurrell CaseyDTAaron StinnieGKevin PamphileGReggie GilbertLBDelanie WalkerTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Hroniss GrasuCMarcus MariotaQB
Carolina Panthers
46 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%71 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%71 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
65Dennis DaleyT · Every snap100%71 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time94%67 snaps
88Greg OlsenTE · Full-time92%65 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time86%61 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation75%53 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational48%34 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
39Reggie BonnafonRB · Situational11%8 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Situational7%5 snaps
20Jordan ScarlettRB · Situational4%3 snaps
60Daryl WilliamsT · Situational3%2 snaps
11Brandon ZylstraWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Mario AddisonDEJordan KunaszykLBChristian MillerLBCam NewtonQBBryan WitzmannTGreg LittleT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Will GrierQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lewis left−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:36) 33-D.Lewis left guard to CAR 45 for no gain (25-E.Reid). FUMBLES (25-E.Reid), RECOVERED by CAR-26-D.Jackson at CAR 42. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 42 for no gain (78-J.Conklin).
Q2 11:36 · Titans · 2nd & 3 at CAR 45 · gained nothing · -5.05 EP · −13.9% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 94 yards from the TEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
801
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0474%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0068%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4660%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.200%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2425%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0817%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers3 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 42
No good5 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Panthers 25
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Titans 27
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 33
Drive ended2 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Drive ended5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Titans 21
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter54 plays
Titans0Panthers3
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 9
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Panthers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 18
Titans0Panthers9
Titans0Panthers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 27
Titans0Panthers16
Titans0Panthers17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Titans 12
No good10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Panthers 29
3rd quarter39 plays
Titans6Panthers17
Titans7Panthers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Panthers 8
Titans7Panthers23
Titans7Panthers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Titans 1
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Titans 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 42
4th quarter59 plays
Titans13Panthers24
Titans14Panthers24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Panthers 23
Titans14Panthers30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 42
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 10 to midfield
No good6 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Titans 31
Titans20Panthers30
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Panthers 10
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Titans 42
No good11 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Panthers 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -3.5
Closing total
43
Titans moneyline
+160
Panthers moneyline
-179
Panthers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 43; the game landed 50 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Titans 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Ron Rivera
(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at TEN 17 for -8 yards (58-H.Landry).
2nd · 11:36TEN +7% win prob(11:36) 33-D.Lewis left guard to CAR 45 for no gain (25-E.Reid). FUMBLES (25-E.Reid), RECOVERED by CAR-26-D.Jackson at CAR 42. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 42 for no gain (78-J.Conklin).
1st · 2:35CAR +7% win prob(2:35) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel to TEN 33 for 32 yards (26-L.Ryan).
