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Washington Commanders 9 at Buffalo Bills 24. Final.
Bills -10.5 ✓U 37 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 9
Buffalo Bills 24, Commanders 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:06, 3rd and 3, on I.McKenzie — 4.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:06 · 3rd and 3
I.McKenzie
Bills
(11:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 36 for 11 yards (31-F.Moreau). Slant pattern, caught at WAS 40, crossing from middle.
17.9 mph wind
Bills closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Buffalo Bills 24–9. Biggest swing: Q1 11:06, Bills +4.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
4.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ1 12:25(12:25) 5-T.Way punts 21 yards to BUF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.
3.3pts
F.GoreCommandersQ3 10:58(10:58) 20-F.Gore up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (20-L.Collins).
3.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Commanders139 of 147 plays carry both curves
(11:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 36 for 11 yards (31-F.Moreau). Slant pattern, caught at WAS 40, crossing from middle.
Swing +4.2 for BillsExpected points +1.54 for BillsThe model had Commanders 22 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:06BUF +4% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 36 for 11 yards (31-F.Moreau). Slant pattern, caught at WAS 40, crossing from middle.
3rd · 10:58WAS +4% win prob(10:58) 20-F.Gore up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (20-L.Collins).
1st · 12:25WAS +3% win prob(12:25) 5-T.Way punts 21 yards to BUF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.
4th · 13:53BUF +3% win prob(13:53) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 10-P.Richardson to WAS 41 for 9 yards (39-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at WAS 41. Pressure on QB: M.Milano.
4th · 6:43WAS +3% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at WAS 4 for -9 yards (27-T.White).
4th · 8:41WAS +3% win prob(8:41) 20-F.Gore right tackle to BUF 28 for -3 yards (51-S.Hamilton).
1st · 12:15
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Beasley's 6-yard touchdown catch with 8:25 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:25C.Beasley·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jos.Allenfrom Jos.AllenLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:28S.Hauschka·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+30–10
2nd10:45D.Hopkins·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–10
Bills ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Commanders: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.09Bills: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Commanders: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.34Bills: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Commanders: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.08Bills: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's early-down pass rate, 34.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 48.1% in week 2.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 8.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
BUF's pass rate over expected, −10.5 pts, is past their previous low of −4.4 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Bills13.8%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.1%, 20.6 points below their season mean of 54.7% and 1.7 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jos.Allen pass+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 36 for 11 yards (31-F.Moreau). Slant pattern, caught at WAS 40, crossing from middle.
Q1 11:06 · Bills · 3rd & 3 at WAS 47 · gained 11 · +1.54 EP · +7.0% win probability
137 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 71 yards from the WAS 18 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
511
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.3138%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0975%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0640%
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR5-0.1420%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.140%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
Commanders0Bills6
Commanders0Bills7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Commanders 6
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 44
Commanders0Bills10
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Commanders 2
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter36 plays
Commanders3Bills10
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Bills 10
Commanders3Bills16
Commanders3Bills17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Commanders 1
Commanders6Bills17
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Bills 15
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Commanders 24
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 45
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 27
Commanders9Bills17
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 21
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter41 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Bills 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 31
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Commanders 15
Commanders9Bills23
Commanders9Bills24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Commanders 2
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -10.5
Closing total
37
Commanders moneyline
+368
Bills moneyline
-449
Bills closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 37; the game landed 33 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Commanders 10 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Bill Callahan vs Sean McDermott
NoteWind at 17.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
WAS +3% win prob
(12:15) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard to 50 for 4 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
1st · 15:00WAS +2% win prob(15:00) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to WAS 35 for 10 yards (24-T.Johnson, 39-L.Wallace). PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 25 - No Play.
