2019 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2019 · New Era Field
Washington Commanders
9
Buffalo BillsWinner
24
Buffalo Bills 24–9. Biggest swing: Q1 11:06, BUF +4% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 36 for 11 yards (31-F.Moreau). Slant pattern, caught at WAS 40, crossing from middle.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 11:06BUF +4% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 36 for 11 yards (31-F.Moreau). Slant pattern, caught at WAS 40, crossing from middle.
- Q3 · 10:58WAS +4% win prob(10:58) 20-F.Gore up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (20-L.Collins).
- Q1 · 12:25WAS +3% win prob(12:25) 5-T.Way punts 21 yards to BUF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.
- Q4 · 13:53BUF +3% win prob(13:53) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 10-P.Richardson to WAS 41 for 9 yards (39-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at WAS 41. Pressure on QB: M.Milano.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Commanders | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 49 | 58 |
| Total yards | 243 | 271 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 (edge) | 4.7 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.11 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 45% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 59% | 40% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | 0.34 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.08 |
| Third downs | 2/11 | 6/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 17 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | WAS 25 | 5 | 13 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 46 | 9 | 54 | 3:56 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | WAS | WAS 18 | 7 | 26 | 2:13 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 10 | 12 | 66 | 5:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | WAS | WAS 18 | 9 | 71 | 4:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | BUF | WAS 39 | 13 | 39 | 5:57 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | WAS | WAS 30 | 9 | 55 | 4:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:32 | End of half | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 36 | 9 | 45 | 4:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | WAS | WAS 24 | 6 | 26 | 3:34 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 16 | 7 | 4 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 12 | WAS | BUF 35 | 6 | 14 | 3:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 1 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 14 | WAS | WAS 28 | 10 | 26 | 4:31 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 22 | 4 | 6 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 16 | WAS | WAS 13 | 4 | -9 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 17 | BUF | WAS 46 | 9 | 56 | 3:34 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | WAS | WAS 25 | 6 | 21 | 1:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BUF | WAS 46 | 2 | 0 | 1:14 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 71 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -10.5
- Closing total
- 37
- WAS moneyline
- +368
- BUF moneyline
- -449
Bills closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 37; the game landed 33 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- 42°F, wind 18 mph
- Referee
- Tony Corrente
- Rest
- WAS 10 days · BUF 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Callahan vs Sean McDermott
Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.