For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2019 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
CardinalsArizona27
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay30
Arizona Cardinals 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30. Final.
Buccaneers -5.5 no coverO 51 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Cardinals 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 8:20, 2nd and 4, on C.Kirk — 18.4 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:20 · 2nd and 4
C.Kirk
Cardinals
(8:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 8:20, Cardinals +18.4% win probability on one snap.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
P.CooperCardinalsQ4 8:39(8:39) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee pass deep left to 12-P.Cooper to TB 38 for 26 yards (39-A.Adams). Penalty on TB-39-A.Adams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
17.3pts
C.KirkCardinalsQ4 7:28(7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 1 of 10 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Buccaneers at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Cardinals189 of 198 plays carry both curves
(8:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.4 for BuccaneersExpected points −5.87 for BuccaneersThe model had Cardinals 4 points higher than the market did.play 117
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:20TB +18% win prob(8:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:39TB +17% win prob(8:39) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee pass deep left to 12-P.Cooper to TB 38 for 26 yards (39-A.Adams). Penalty on TB-39-A.Adams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 7:28TB +17% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:46ARI +17% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 27-R.Jones to TB 43 for 8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by ARI-32-B.Baker at ARI 44. 32-B.Baker to ARI 44 for no gain (12-C.Godwin).
2nd · 1:10TB +14% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:40TB +14% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin to ARI 43 for 49 yards (34-J.Thompson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Barber's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:47 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:17Z.Gonzalez·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–0
4th1:47P.Barber·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Cardinals3–5Buccaneers
418Total yards457
6.5Yards per play5.9
36%Success rate38%
10%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays8
18First downs22
2Sacks taken4
2Turnovers3
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Cardinals: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Cardinals: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 78 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Buccaneers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, +11.0 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Buccaneers10.6%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 27.4 points below their season mean of 27.4% and 1.3 times their own 21.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Lee pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:39) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee pass deep left to 12-P.Cooper to TB 38 for 26 yards (39-A.Adams). Penalty on TB-39-A.Adams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 8:39 · Cardinals · 4th & 10 at ARI 36 · gained 26 · +4.24 EP · +21.0% win probability
187 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 96 yards from the ARI 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
874
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0577%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.4177%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2753%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR15+0.2193%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1756%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3829%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.3960%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 30
Cardinals3Buccaneers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 15
Cardinals3Buccaneers6
Cardinals3Buccaneers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Cardinals 7
The period ended12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Buccaneers 31
2nd quarter58 plays
Cardinals6Buccaneers7
Field goal4 plays
Cardinals6Buccaneers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cardinals 12
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 11
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Buccaneers 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cardinals12Buccaneers10
Cardinals13Buccaneers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Buccaneers 33
Cardinals13Buccaneers16
Cardinals13Buccaneers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cardinals 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Buccaneers 23
Cardinals13Buccaneers20
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Cardinals 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Cardinals19Buccaneers20
Cardinals20Buccaneers20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 39
Intercepted4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Cardinals20Buccaneers23
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Cardinals 23
Offense on the fieldTwo tight ends, two receivers, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldOne lineman, two linebackers and five backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Cardinals26Buccaneers23
Cardinals27Buccaneers23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Buccaneers 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Buccaneers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one linemanDefense on the fieldFour linemen, five linebackers and two backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Cardinals27Buccaneers29
Cardinals27Buccaneers30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Cardinals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -5.5
Closing total
51
Cardinals moneyline
+207
Buccaneers moneyline
-235
Buccaneers closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51; the game landed 57 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Cardinals 10 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Bruce Arians
4th · 2:00
TB +14% win prob
(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on ARI-34-J.Thompson, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at ARI 13 - No Play.
3rd · 1:19ARI +14% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 31-D.Johnson to TB 11 for 8 yards (54-L.David). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 31-D.Johnson to TB 11 for 8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 11. 54-L.David to TB 11 for no gain (31-D.Johnson).
