2019 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Atlanta FalconsWinner
26
New Orleans Saints
9
Atlanta Falcons 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, NO +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at NO 18 for 54 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 21, YAC 33
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 2:00NO +14% win prob(2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at NO 18 for 54 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 21, YAC 33
- Q4 · 15:00NO +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 23-B.Hill for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 8
- Q3 · 1:13NO +8% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 12 for 8 yards (24-V.Bell).
- Q2 · 3:41ATL +8% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 32 for -10 yards (99-A.Clayborn).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 70 | 61 |
| Total yards | 317 (edge) | 310 |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 5.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.00 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Success rate | 36% | 38% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 54% | 82% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.11 (edge) | -0.33 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.13 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/15 (edge) | 3/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 6 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 25 | 11 | 61 | 5:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | NO | NO 25 | 11 | 64 | 5:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | ATL | ATL 25 | 19 | 60 | 8:00 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | NO | NO 20 | 5 | 6 | 1:52 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 49 | 4 | 14 | 2:30 | Punt | |
| 6 | NO | NO 10 | 7 | 22 | 3:59 | Punt | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 17 | 8 | 65 | 1:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | NO | NO 25 | 10 | 63 | 1:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | NO | NO 25 | 7 | 22 | 2:49 | Punt | |
| 10 | ATL | ATL 10 | 7 | 17 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 11 | NO | ATL 38 | 9 | 28 | 3:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 25 | 15 | 70 | 6:12 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | NO | NO 46 | 5 | 1 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 33 | 11 | 22 | 5:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | NO | NO 20 | 6 | 14 | 2:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | ATL | NO 34 | 2 | 2 | 1:22 | Interception | |
| 17 | NO | NO 11 | 4 | 8 | 0:32 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | ATL | NO 18 | 4 | 6 | 1:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | NO | NO 22 | 13 | 82 | 2:32 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 82 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -14
- Closing total
- 51.5
- ATL moneyline
- +503
- NO moneyline
- -649
Saints closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 35 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome
- Roof / surface
- dome · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Brad Allen
- Rest
- ATL 14 days · NO 14 days
- Coaches
- Dan Quinn vs Sean Payton
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.