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Atlanta Falcons 26 at New Orleans Saints 9. Final.
Saints -14 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Atlanta Falcons 26, Saints 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 1st and 10, on J.Jones — 13.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 1st and 10
J.Jones
Falcons
(2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at NO 18 for 54 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 21, YAC 33
U 51.5 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Falcons +13.9% win probability on one snap.
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.RyanFalconsQ3 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 12 for 8 yards (24-V.Bell).
8.2pts
B.HillFalconsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 23-B.Hill for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 8
10.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at NO 18 for 54 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 21, YAC 33
Swing −13.9 for SaintsExpected points −3.47 for SaintsThe model had Falcons 35 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00NO +14% win prob(2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at NO 18 for 54 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 21, YAC 33
4th · 15:00NO +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 23-B.Hill for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 8
3rd · 1:13NO +8% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 12 for 8 yards (24-V.Bell).
2nd · 3:41ATL +8% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 32 for -10 yards (99-A.Clayborn).
4th · 12:40ATL +7% win prob(12:40) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 33 for 12 yards (52-C.Robertson).
3rd · 3:43NO +7% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley to NO 35 for 15 yards (25-E.Apple; 92-M.Davenport). Pass 6, YAC 9
3rd · 7:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Hooper's 8-yard touchdown catch with 11:13 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:32Y.Koo·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+33–0
1st4:13W.Lutz·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd11:13A.Hooper·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom M.Ryanfrom M.RyanLead never changed again+710–3
2nd1:35Y.Koo·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+313–3
2nd0:05W.Lutz·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+313–6
3rd6:09W.Lutz·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+313–9
4th7:33Y.Koo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+323–9
4th2:35Y.Koo·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+326–9
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categorySaints
Falcons5–3Saints
317Total yards310
4.5Yards per play5.1
36%Success rate38%
40%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays2
18First downs18
1Sacks taken6
1Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Falcons: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.26Saints: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.33Saints: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Falcons: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Saints’s 61 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Saints 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's early-down pass rate, 78.3%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 10 — 10.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 63.5% in week 1.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate, 46.3%, is past their previous low of 59.6% in week 6 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Saints13.2%
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.3%, 19.7 points above their season mean of 58.6% and 2.5 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Patrick RobinsonCBSaquan HamptonDBCarl GrandersonDENick EastonGEthan GreenidgeTDan ArnoldTEAustin CarrWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Teddy BridgewaterQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan scrambles+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 39 for 5 yards (24-V.Bell).
Q1 0:36 · Falcons · 4th & 4 at NO 44 · gained 5 · +3.26 EP · +11.5% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 77 yards from the NO 22 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
36%
Yards
627
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0369%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3691%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1625%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.3518%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4950%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Falcons3Saints0
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 13
Falcons3Saints3
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 2
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 44
2nd quarter54 plays
Falcons9Saints3
Falcons10Saints3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 8
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 21
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Saints 47
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 42
Falcons13Saints3
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Saints 10
Falcons13Saints6
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 27
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 47
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 27
Falcons13Saints9
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 10
The period ended16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 12
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons19Saints9
Falcons20Saints9
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Falcons 48
Falcons23Saints9
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Saints 30
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 41
Intercepted3 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 19
Falcons26Saints9
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 12
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Falcons 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
