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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore49
BY 36final margin
BengalsCincinnati13
Baltimore Ravens 49 at Cincinnati Bengals 13. Final.
Ravens -10.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Baltimore Ravens 49, Bengals 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on M.Brown — 7.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
M.Brown
Ravens
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown to CIN 26 for 49 yards (23-B.Webb).
7.3
Ravens closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 36.
Baltimore Ravens 49–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Ravens +7.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.JacksonRavensQ1 10:37(10:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to BAL 36 for 9 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
3.2pts
M.PetersRavensQ2 3:55(3:55) 5-R.Finley pass short right intended for 12-A.Erickson INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 11. 24-M.Peters for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.91 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.67 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.54 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens148 of 157 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown to CIN 26 for 49 yards (23-B.Webb).
Swing −7.3 for BengalsExpected points −3.47 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 38 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00CIN +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown to CIN 26 for 49 yards (23-B.Webb).
2nd · 3:55BAL +4% win prob(3:55) 5-R.Finley pass short right intended for 12-A.Erickson INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 11. 24-M.Peters for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:37CIN +3% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to BAL 36 for 9 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
1st · 12:22CIN +3% win prob(12:22) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:29CIN +3% win prob(11:29) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 25 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah; 50-Jo.Evans).
1st · 12:13CIN +2% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard to CIN 30 for 4 yards (45-J.Ferguson).
1st · 5:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Andrews's 2-yard touchdown catch with 12:22 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:22M.Andrews·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom L.Jacksonfrom L.JacksonLead never changed again+77–0
4th2:34R.Bullock·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+349–13
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens8–0Bengals
380Total yards307
8.6Yards per play4.3
61%Success rate44%
67%Third-down rate47%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
20First downs20
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.91 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.54Ravens: +0.54 expected points added per play
−0.36Bengals: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.91Ravens: +0.91 expected points added per play
−0.67Bengals: −0.67 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Ravens: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.06Bengals: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 44 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Bengals’s 72 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Bengals 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.54 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, −18.3 pts, is past their previous low of −2.9 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.9 pts in week 9 against +3.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bengals17.4%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.3 pts, 17.0 points below their season mean of -1.2 pts and 2.0 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
46 dressed · 7 inactive
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%46 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%46 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%46 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation76%35 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Heavy rotation76%35 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Heavy rotation76%35 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Heavy rotation76%35 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation57%26 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation50%23 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Rotational48%22 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Rotational48%22 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Rotational46%21 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational39%18 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Rotational39%18 snaps
11Seth RobertsWR · Rotational39%18 snaps
74James HurstG · Rotational30%14 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational26%12 snaps
3Robert Griffin IIIQB · Rotational26%12 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Situational24%11 snaps
65Patrick MekariT · Situational24%11 snaps
Inactive · 7
Cyrus JonesCBUfomba KamaluDEDaylon MackDTBen PowersGTrace McSorleyQBChris MooreWRJaleel ScottWR
Cincinnati Bengals
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
19Auden TateWR · Every snap100%73 snaps
64John JerryG · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%73 snaps
53Billy PriceC · Every snap100%73 snaps
67John MillerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
5Ryan FinleyQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time88%64 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Full-time84%61 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation75%55 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation56%41 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Heavy rotation52%38 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Rotational49%36 snaps
85Tyler EifertTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Rotational25%18 snaps
71Andre SmithT · Situational16%12 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Situational11%8 snaps
60Mike JordanOG · Situational7%5 snaps
82Cethan CarterTE · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Dre KirkpatrickCBTorry McTyerCBFred JohnsonGAlex RedmondGCordy GlennOTJake DolegalaQBA.J. GreenWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Andy DaltonQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Finley pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:55) 5-R.Finley pass short right intended for 12-A.Erickson INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 11. 24-M.Peters for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 3:55 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at BAL 15 · gained nothing · -11.79 EP · −16.7% win probability
146 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
48%
Yards
686
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.2149%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.4242%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.5133%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+1.5971%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1917%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.18100%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Ravens6Bengals0
Ravens7Bengals0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 30
Ravens13Bengals0
Ravens14Bengals0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Ravens 26
2nd quarter49 plays
Ravens14Bengals3
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 24
Ravens20Bengals3
Ravens21Bengals3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 17
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Ravens27Bengals3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 15
Ravens28Bengals3
Ravens28Bengals9
Ravens28Bengals10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 43
3rd quarter41 plays
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 34
Ravens34Bengals10
Ravens35Bengals10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Bengals 47
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
Ravens41Bengals10
Ravens42Bengals10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 20
Ravens48Bengals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 43
Ravens49Bengals10
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Ravens 38
4th quarter32 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Ravens 20
Intercepted8 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bengals 45
Ravens49Bengals13
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Ravens 15
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
