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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 19, Bills 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:22, 4th and 4, on S.Hauschka — 18.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:22 · 4th and 4
S.Hauschka
Browns
(:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Browns closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Cleveland Browns 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, Browns +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jos.AllenBillsQ4 6:29(6:29) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen scrambles up the middle to CLE 8 for 3 yards (98-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (98-S.Richardson), recovered by BUF-76-J.Feliciano at CLE 1. 76-J.Feliciano to CLE 1 for no gain (38-T.Carrie). CLE-98-S.Richardson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. CLE-92-C.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
13.9pts
Jos.AllenBrownsQ4 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Brown.
15.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.08 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bills165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Swing +18.1 for BrownsExpected points +1.57 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:22BUF +18% win prob(:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 0:26BUF +16% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Brown.
4th · 6:29CLE +14% win prob(6:29) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen scrambles up the middle to CLE 8 for 3 yards (98-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (98-S.Richardson), recovered by BUF-76-J.Feliciano at CLE 1. 76-J.Feliciano to CLE 1 for no gain (38-T.Carrie). CLE-98-S.Richardson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. CLE-92-C.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
2nd · 0:20BUF +14% win prob(:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 8:04CLE +13% win prob(8:04) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep middle to 10-C.Beasley to CLE 11 for 26 yards (23-D.Randall).
4th · 1:48CLE +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Higgins's 7-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:48R.Higgins·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom B.Mayfieldfrom B.MayfieldLead never changed again+716–19
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryBrowns
Bills3–5Browns
344Total yards369
5.5Yards per play5.7
40%Success rate43%
31%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
17First downs22
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Bills: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.12Browns: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Bills: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.08Browns: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 62 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Browns’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 10.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.3 points.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.1 pts in week 9 against +4.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.1% in week 9 against 59.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Browns11.6%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 42.7 points above their season mean of 24.0% and 1.8 times their own 23.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%68 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%68 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time93%63 snaps
10Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
77Ty NsekheT · Heavy rotation62%42 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational43%29 snaps
70Cody FordT · Rotational40%27 snaps
20Frank GoreRB · Rotational32%22 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Situational22%15 snaps
18Andre RobertsWR · Situational19%13 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational16%11 snaps
Inactive · 7
Dean MarloweDBVincent TaylorDTT.J. YeldonRBIke BoettgerTRyan BatesTTommy SweeneyTEDuke WilliamsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt BarkleyQB
Cleveland Browns
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Chris HubbardG · Every snap100%69 snaps
64JC TretterT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Greg RobinsonOT · Every snap100%69 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
13Odell BeckhamWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Full-time93%64 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Full-time81%56 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
88Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational48%33 snaps
81Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational48%33 snaps
89Stephen CarlsonTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational23%16 snaps
25Dontrell HilliardRB · Situational12%8 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational10%7 snaps
67Justin McCrayG · Situational6%4 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational1%1 snap
18Damion RatleyWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Robert JacksonCBEric MurrayFSOlivier VernonOLBKendall LammTRicky Seals-JonesTETaywan TaylorWRAntonio CallawayWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Garrett GilbertQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry ran ob at BUF 7 for 24 yards (39-L.Wallace) [97-J.Phillips].
Q4 2:00 · Browns · 2nd & 6 at BUF 31 · gained 24 · +2.04 EP · +18.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 82 yards from the CLE 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
712
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0273%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.4676%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR18+0.0472%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.3533%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.5050%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0967%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3980%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Bills0Browns6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 17
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Browns 39
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Bills 1
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 3 to the Bills 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 32
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Bills6Browns6
Bills7Browns6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Browns 10
Bills7Browns9
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Bills 1
No good15 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Browns 16
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 35
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Browns 44
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree backs and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Bills9Browns9
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bills9Browns12
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Bills 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Browns 36
4th quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 40
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Bills15Browns12
Bills16Browns12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bills16Browns18
Bills16Browns19
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Bills 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Browns 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
