2019 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium
Buffalo Bills
16
Cleveland BrownsWinner
19
Cleveland Browns 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, BUF +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:22BUF +18% win prob(:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
- Q4 · 0:26BUF +16% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Brown.
- Q4 · 6:29CLE +14% win prob(6:29) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen scrambles up the middle to CLE 8 for 3 yards (98-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (98-S.Richardson), recovered by BUF-76-J.Feliciano at CLE 1. 76-J.Feliciano to CLE 1 for no gain (38-T.Carrie). CLE-98-S.Richardson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. CLE-92-C.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- Q2 · 0:20BUF +14% win prob(:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 65 |
| Total yards | 344 | 369 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.5 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Success rate | 40% | 43% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 69% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.00 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.11 (edge) | -0.08 |
| Third downs | 4/13 | 4/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | CLE 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:51 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 20 | 5 | 6 | 1:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | CLE | CLE 39 | 14 | 58 | 7:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 3 | 4 | 6 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 5 | CLE | CLE 27 | 4 | 8 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 24 | 10 | 76 | 4:40 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | CLE | CLE 23 | 14 | 74 | 6:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 26 | 12 | 68 | 3:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | CLE | CLE 24 | 3 | 19 | 0:17 | End of half | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 23 | 9 | 27 | 4:00 | Punt | |
| 11 | CLE | CLE 8 | 1 | -8 | 0:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 31 | 5 | 22 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 13 | CLE | CLE 15 | 10 | 51 | 5:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 24 | 3:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | CLE | CLE 36 | 4 | 1 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 16 | 6 | 24 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 17 | CLE | CLE 15 | 5 | 9 | 2:15 | Punt | |
| 18 | BUF | CLE 48 | 8 | 51 | 3:44 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | CLE | CLE 18 | 12 | 82 | 3:42 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 25 | 9 | 40 | 1:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | CLE | CLE 43 | 1 | 0 | 0:17 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- CLE -3
- Closing total
- 42
- BUF moneyline
- +136
- CLE moneyline
- -151
Browns closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42; the game landed 35 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- FirstEnergy Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 50°F, wind 10 mph
- Referee
- Ronald Torbert
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · CLE 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Freddie Kitchens