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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 16 at Green Bay Packers 24. Final.
Packers -5 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Green Bay Packers 24, Panthers 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:56, 4th and 10, on D.Moore — 14.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:56 · 4th and 10
D.Moore
Panthers
(:56) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to GB 13 for 12 yards (38-T.Williams).
Packers closed -5 and covered, winning by 8.
Green Bay Packers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, Panthers +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ2 12:46(12:46) 7-K.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 47, RECOVERED by GB-90-M.Adams at GB 48. 90-M.Adams to GB 48 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
11.0pts
J.WilliamsPanthersQ2 0:02(:02) 30-J.Williams up the middle to CAR 4 for -3 yards (93-G.McCoy).
10.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 5 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Panthers166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:56) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to GB 13 for 12 yards (38-T.Williams).
Swing −14.2 for PackersExpected points −2.12 for PackersThe model had Packers 4 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:56GB +14% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to GB 13 for 12 yards (38-T.Williams).
2nd · 12:46CAR +11% win prob(12:46) 7-K.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 47, RECOVERED by GB-90-M.Adams at GB 48. 90-M.Adams to GB 48 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
2nd · 0:02CAR +11% win prob(:02) 30-J.Williams up the middle to CAR 4 for -3 yards (93-G.McCoy).
4th · 0:04CAR +10% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to GB 1 for 1 yard (91-P.Smith). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 2:53GB +9% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-J.Graham to CAR 26 for 48 yards (25-E.Reid).
2nd · 12:05GB +9% win prob(12:05) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to CAR 10 for 37 yards (47-R.Cockrell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Jones's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:29 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd1:26M.Crosby·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+310–24
4th12:02C.McCaffrey·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+616–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryPackers
Panthers2–7Packers
401Total yards388
5.7Yards per play6.7
47%Success rate48%
40%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
25First downs19
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.19Packers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Panthers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Panthers: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.19Packers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 70 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Packers’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Packers 4.
NotePanthers outgained Packers 401-388 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.7% in week 9 against 49.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers18.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 49.0%, 8.3 points below their season mean of 57.3% and 1.0 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
12D.J. MooreWR · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%72 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%72 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%72 snaps
88Greg OlsenTE · Every snap100%72 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Every snap100%72 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time83%60 snaps
65Dennis DaleyT · Heavy rotation61%44 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation61%44 snaps
60Daryl WilliamsT · Rotational39%28 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational15%11 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Situational6%4 snaps
18DeAndrew WhiteWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
James BradberryCBJordan KunaszykLBChristian MillerLBBryan WitzmannTGreg LittleTGreg DortchWRBrandon ZylstraWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Allen FUMBLES−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:46) 7-K.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 47, RECOVERED by GB-90-M.Adams at GB 48. 90-M.Adams to GB 48 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
Q2 12:46 · Panthers · 2nd & 1 at GB 46 · gained nothing · -5.59 EP · −16.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 88 yards from the CAR 11 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0984%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3169%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2640%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2164%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.5614%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0567%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Packers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 19
Panthers6Packers0
Panthers7Packers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Packers 2
Panthers7Packers6
Panthers7Packers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Packers 29
2nd quarter45 plays
Panthers10Packers7
Field goal1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 33
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Packers 46
Panthers10Packers13
Panthers10Packers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Panthers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Packers 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
The period ended21 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Panthers 1
3rd quarter39 plays
Panthers10Packers20
Panthers10Packers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 13
Intercepted11 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Packers 11
Panthers10Packers24
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Panthers 23
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 32
4th quarter55 plays
Panthers16Packers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Packers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 27
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Panthers 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended25 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Packers 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
