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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 32 at Tennessee Titans 35. Final.
Chiefs -5 upsetO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Tennessee Titans 35, Chiefs 32 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 5, on H.Butker — 45.1 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 5
H.Butker
Titans
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (46-J.Kalu), Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at KC 47. 36-L.Sims to KC 33 for 14 yards (42-A.Sherman).
Chiefs closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Titans +45.1% win probability on one snap.
45.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dam.WilliamsTitansQ2 6:28(6:28) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to TEN 45 for -1 yards (51-D.Long). FUMBLES (51-D.Long), RECOVERED by TEN-54-R.Evans at TEN 47. 54-R.Evans for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.3pts
A.HumphriesTitansQ4 0:29(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-A.Humphries for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
37.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Titans at 2 of 9 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 9 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Chiefs168 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (46-J.Kalu), Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at KC 47. 36-L.Sims to KC 33 for 14 yards (42-A.Sherman).
Swing +45.1 for TitansExpected points +1.84 for TitansThe model had Titans 17 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03KC +45% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (46-J.Kalu), Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at KC 47. 36-L.Sims to KC 33 for 14 yards (42-A.Sherman).
4th · 0:29TEN +37% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-A.Humphries for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:28KC +26% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to TEN 45 for -1 yards (51-D.Long). FUMBLES (51-D.Long), RECOVERED by TEN-54-R.Evans at TEN 47. 54-R.Evans for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:10TEN +22% win prob(6:10) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:17TEN +19% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-D.Robinson to TEN 39 for 23 yards (26-L.Ryan).
4th · 12:05TEN +16% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Humphries's 23-yard touchdown catch with 0:29 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.17Titans: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.42Chiefs: +0.42 expected points added per play
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Chiefs: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.32Titans: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 78 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 50 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Titans 4.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, −19.5 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −12.4 pts in week 5.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 9.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 32.0%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 10 — 7.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 29.3% in week 8.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 9.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.9% in week 9 against 41.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +16.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Titans7.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -19.5 pts, 13.3 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Dam.Williams up−31% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:28) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to TEN 45 for -1 yards (51-D.Long). FUMBLES (51-D.Long), RECOVERED by TEN-54-R.Evans at TEN 47. 54-R.Evans for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:28 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at TEN 44 · lost 3 · -9.97 EP · −30.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 79 yards from the KC 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
50%
Yards
903
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.5077%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0553%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29-0.2862%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2433%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs6Titans0
Chiefs7Titans0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Titans 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
Chiefs10Titans0
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 12
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chiefs 40
The period ended3 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 17
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 47
Chiefs10Titans6
Chiefs10Titans7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Chiefs 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs10Titans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Titans 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Chiefs13Titans13
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Titans 23
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 17
Chiefs19Titans13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Titans 11
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Chiefs19Titans19
Chiefs19Titans20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chiefs22Titans20
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Titans 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
4th quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Chiefs28Titans20
Chiefs29Titans20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 37
Chiefs29Titans26
Chiefs29Titans27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chiefs 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chiefs32Titans27
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Titans 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 44
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end, one punter, one long snapper and one kickerDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Titans 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chiefs32Titans33
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Chiefs 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs32Titans35
No good6 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Titans 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -5
Closing total
49
Chiefs moneyline
-233
Titans moneyline
+205
Chiefs closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 67 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 0:53TEN +13% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 86-A.Firkser to KC 23 for 20 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
4th · 1:27KC +12% win prob(1:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Colquitt Aborted. 41-J.Winchester FUMBLES at TEN 37, recovered by KC-2-D.Colquitt at TEN 37. 2-D.Colquitt pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on KC-2-D.Colquitt, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 29.
Chiefscategory by categoryTitans
Chiefs6
Titans0
