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2019 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 7, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
ChargersLos Angeles24
BY 2final margin
RaidersOakland26
Los Angeles Chargers 24 at Oakland Raiders 26. Final.
Chargers -1 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Oakland Raiders 26, Chargers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:06, 3rd and 1, on J.Jacobs — 26.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
O 49 ✓
Chargers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Oakland Raiders 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:06, Chargers +26.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:06 · 3rd and 1
J.Jacobs
Chargers
(1:06) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
E.HarrisRaidersQ1 6:14(6:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 86-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris [98-M.Crosby] at LV 44. 25-E.Harris for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.2pts
K.AllenChargersQ4 8:01(8:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen ran ob at LV 36 for 26 yards (20-D.Worley).
18.3pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 89 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers166 of 172 plays carry both curves
(1:06) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −26.7 for RaidersExpected points −2.84 for RaidersThe model had Chargers 5 points higher than the market did.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:06OAK +27% win prob(1:06) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:14LAC +25% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 86-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris [98-M.Crosby] at LV 44. 25-E.Harris for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:01OAK +18% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen ran ob at LV 36 for 26 yards (20-D.Worley).
1st · 14:57OAK +18% win prob(14:57) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 42 for 23 yards (42-K.Joseph).
1st · 12:05LAC +18% win prob(12:05) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris [90-J.Hankins] at LV 10. 25-E.Harris to LAC 31 for 59 yards (86-H.Henry, 81-M.Williams).
4th · 4:08OAK +17% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-50-N.Morrow, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Jacobs's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 1:06 left in the 4th put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:05D.Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+30–3
4th1:06J.Jacobs·18-yd TD run18-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+624–26
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 48.1%, 11.4 points below their season mean of 59.6% and 1.0 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass−22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 86-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris [98-M.Crosby] at LV 44. 25-E.Harris for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:14 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 46 · gained nothing · -9.66 EP · −21.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 80 yards from the LAC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
46%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.3754%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1274%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.8822%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.1544%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+1.4267%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Raiders 33
Chargers0Raiders3
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Chargers0Raiders9
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 46
Chargers0Raiders10
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 43
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 43
2nd quarter45 plays
Chargers6Raiders10
Chargers7Raiders10
Touchdown16 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 2
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 19
Chargers13Raiders10
Chargers14Raiders10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Raiders 3
Chargers14Raiders16
Chargers14Raiders17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Chargers 9
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Chargers14Raiders20
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Chargers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 14
No good4 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chargers 47
Chargers17Raiders20
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Raiders 6
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Chargers 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Chargers23Raiders20
Chargers24Raiders20
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Raiders 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers24Raiders26
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 18
Drive ended6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
The period ended1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -1
Closing total
49
Chargers moneyline
-117
Raiders moneyline
+106
Chargers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 50 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ring Central Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Chargers 4 days · Raiders 4 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Jon Gruden
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 3:56OAK +11% win prob(3:56) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams to LV 38 for 45 yards (27-T.Mullen).
3rd · 14:18OAK +11% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 44 for 14 yards (20-D.King) [97-J.Bosa]. PENALTY on LAC-20-D.King, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 44.
