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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 12 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17. Final.
Rams -4 upsetU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Rams 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:30, 4th and 10, on J.Goff — 27.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:30 · 4th and 10
J.Goff
Steelers
(1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (34-Te.Edmunds).
27.1
Rams closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17–12. Biggest swing: Q4 1:30, Steelers +27.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.GoffSteelersQ2 1:56(1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 32 for -9 yards (79-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (79-J.Hargrave) [79-J.Hargrave], RECOVERED by PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick at LA 43. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.2pts
M.RudolphRamsQ4 12:46(12:46) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (99-A.Donald).
15.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — -0.31 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.78 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Rams at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 5 of 16 on third down, against Rams at 1 of 14 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Rams189 of 200 plays carry both curves
(1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (34-Te.Edmunds).
Swing +27.1 for SteelersExpected points +2.61 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 12 points higher than the market did.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:30LA +27% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (34-Te.Edmunds).
2nd · 1:56LA +24% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 32 for -9 yards (79-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (79-J.Hargrave) [79-J.Hargrave], RECOVERED by PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick at LA 43. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:46LA +15% win prob(12:46) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (99-A.Donald).
1st · 14:53LA +14% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 35, RECOVERED by LA-56-D.Fowler at PIT 26. 56-D.Fowler for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:10LA +13% win prob(1:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LA 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LA 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35.
4th · 8:55
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Fitzpatrick's 43-yard touchdown with 1:56 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd0:14G.Zuerlein·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+310–14
4th12:46A.Donald·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+212–14
4th2:49C.Boswell·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+312–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySteelers
Rams4–4Steelers
306Total yards274
4.4Yards per play4.1
36%Success rate28%
7%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
13First downs13
4Sacks taken3
4Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.78 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.42Rams: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.36Steelers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.47Rams: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.09Steelers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Rams: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.78Steelers: −0.78 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 69 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Rams 2, Steelers 2.
NoteRams outgained Steelers 306-274 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Steelers19.6%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.0%, 7.7 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.0 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph Aborted−23% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 35, RECOVERED by LA-56-D.Fowler at PIT 26. 56-D.Fowler for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:53 · Steelers · 2nd & 10 at PIT 40 · gained nothing · -8.81 EP · −22.7% win probability
187 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 200 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 200 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 82 yards from the PIT 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
200 of 200 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
200
EPA per play
-0.28
Success rate
32%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62-0.4268%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.4873%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16-0.2425%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0990%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2860%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
200 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
200 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams6Steelers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
Rams7Steelers0
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 26
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 31
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Rams 44
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 42
Rams7Steelers6
Rams7Steelers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Rams 3
The period ended4 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Rams 49
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Steelers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Steelers 49
Fumble lost2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Rams7Steelers13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 41
Rams7Steelers14
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 25
No good8 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Steelers 38
3rd quarter42 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 26 to midfield
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Rams 45
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 29
Punt5 plays
Rams10Steelers14
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Steelers 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 38
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Rams12Steelers14
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Rams 38
Rams12Steelers17
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Rams 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Steelers 30
Punt8 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Rams 47
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -4
Closing total
43
Rams moneyline
-214
Steelers moneyline
+189
Rams closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 29 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Rams 14 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Mike Tomlin
PIT +13% win prob
(8:55) (Pass formation) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 33-T.Edmunds to PIT 40 for 6 yards (58-C.Littleton, 32-E.Weddle).
2nd · 14:33PIT +11% win prob(14:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 2 yards (82-J.Mundt). FUMBLES (82-J.Mundt), recovered by PIT-98-V.Williams at PIT 29. 98-V.Williams to PIT 29 for no gain (88-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PIT-98-V.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29.
4th · 0:30LA +10% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (23-J.Haden) at PIT 45. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to LA 41 for 14 yards (17-R.Woods).
