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2019 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
DolphinsMiami16
BY 4final margin
ColtsIndianapolis12
Miami Dolphins 16 at Indianapolis Colts 12. Final.
Colts -11 upsetU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Miami Dolphins 16, Colts 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:45, 4th and 10, on E.Ebron — 40.4 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:45 · 4th and 10
E.Ebron
Dolphins
(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
40.4
Dome
Colts closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 16–12. Biggest swing: Q4 0:45, Dolphins +40.4% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.LeonardColtsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [97-A.Muhammad] at MIA 35. 53-D.Leonard to MIA 34 for 1 yard (88-M.Gesicki).
16.1pts
N.NeedhamDolphinsQ4 5:45(5:45) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham at IND 35. 40-N.Needham to IND 35 for no gain (14-Z.Pascal).
26.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Dolphins165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
Swing −40.4 for ColtsExpected points −2.61 for ColtsThe model had Dolphins 6 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:45MIA +40% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
4th · 5:45MIA +27% win prob(5:45) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham at IND 35. 40-N.Needham to IND 35 for no gain (14-Z.Pascal).
4th · 15:00MIA +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [97-A.Muhammad] at MIA 35. 53-D.Leonard to MIA 34 for 1 yard (88-M.Gesicki).
2nd · 3:38MIA +16% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 28-B.McCain at IND 44. 28-B.McCain ran ob at IND 12 for 32 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
4th · 2:49IND +15% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 80-C.Rogers to IND 47 for 20 yards (30-C.Lammons).
4th · 5:50IND +14% win prob(5:50) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Sanders's 48-yard field goal with 5:50 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st6:49J.Sanders·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+33–0
4th5:50J.Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+313–12
4th3:36J.Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+316–12
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryColts
Dolphins1–7Colts
230Total yards301
3.8Yards per play4.4
28%Success rate38%
38%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays9
12First downs19
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers3
The read
Colts ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Dolphins: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.35Colts: −0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Dolphins: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.51Colts: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Dolphins: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Colts’s 68 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Colts 5.
NoteColts outgained Dolphins 301-230 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.1% in week 9 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.3 pts in week 9 against −0.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Colts17.9%
leaned — got home · +5.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 58.1%, 8.4 points below their season mean of 66.5% and 1.2 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
61J'Marcus WebbT · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Evan BoehmG · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%65 snaps
63Michael DeiterOG · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Every snap100%65 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time95%62 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Full-time95%62 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Full-time82%53 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational48%31 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Situational23%15 snaps
38Chandler CoxFB · Situational12%8 snaps
42Patrick LairdRB · Situational11%7 snaps
87Clive WalfordTE · Situational11%7 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Situational8%5 snaps
37Myles GaskinRB · Situational8%5 snaps
3Josh RosenQB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ken WebsterDBXavier CrawfordDBKeaton SutherlandGAvery MossOLBReshad JonesSSIsaiah PrinceTGary JenningsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Shaq CalhounGSam EguavoenLB
Indianapolis Colts
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%69 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
2Brian HoyerQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Every snap99%68 snaps
83Marcus JohnsonWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Rotational49%34 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Rotational46%32 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational42%29 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational10%7 snaps
33Jonathan WilliamsRB · Situational10%7 snaps
73Joe HaegT · Situational6%4 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Pierre DesirCBQuincy WilsonCBTyquan LewisDTE.J. SpeedLBJacoby BrissettQBT.Y. HiltonWRParris CampbellWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Le'Raven ClarkOGJosh AndrewsOGChad KellyQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Hoyer pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
Q4 0:45 · Colts · 4th & 10 at MIA 16 · gained 8 · -2.61 EP · −33.5% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 67 yards from the IND 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.27
Success rate
30%
Yards
529
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1565%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0352%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.8677%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.9480%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1150%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0117%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-1.0060%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 9
Dolphins3Colts0
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Colts 29
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Colts 8
2nd quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Dolphins 25
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 6 to the Dolphins 16
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Dolphins 45
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Colts 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Dolphins9Colts0
Dolphins10Colts0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 7
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
Punt6 plays
Dolphins10Colts3
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Dolphins 7
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Dolphins10Colts6
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 14
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Dolphins10Colts12
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Dolphins 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Dolphins13Colts12
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Colts 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Dolphins16Colts12
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Dolphins 16
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -11
Closing total
44.5
Dolphins moneyline
+390
Colts moneyline
-481
Colts closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Frank Reich
4th · 2:00IND +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 27 for 23 yards (21-E.Rowe).
2nd · 10:39MIA +11% win prob(10:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at MIA 37 for -9 yards (55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (55-J.Baker) [55-J.Baker], recovered by IND-25-M.Mack at MIA 41.
