2019 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Miami DolphinsWinner
16
Indianapolis Colts
12
Miami Dolphins 16–12. Biggest swing: Q4 0:45, MIA +40% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:45MIA +40% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
- Q4 · 5:45MIA +27% win prob(5:45) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham at IND 35. 40-N.Needham to IND 35 for no gain (14-Z.Pascal).
- Q4 · 15:00MIA +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [97-A.Muhammad] at MIA 35. 53-D.Leonard to MIA 34 for 1 yard (88-M.Gesicki).
- Q2 · 3:38MIA +16% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 28-B.McCain at IND 44. 28-B.McCain ran ob at IND 12 for 32 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Dolphins | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 68 |
| Total yards | 230 | 301 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 3.8 | 4.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.29 (edge) | -0.35 |
| Success rate | 28% | 38% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 64% | 60% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 (edge) | -0.51 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.47 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/16 | 5/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 (edge) | 3 |
Colts outgained Dolphins 301–230 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 24 | 1:54 | Fumble | |
| 2 | IND | MIA 49 | 7 | 40 | 2:37 | Interception | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 20 | 8 | 51 | 3:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 36 | 13 | 61 | 5:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | IND | IND 3 | 10 | 56 | 5:04 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 6 | 7 | 8 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | IND 47 | 4 | 9 | 1:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 44 | 4 | 3 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 10 | IND | IND 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | Interception | |
| 11 | MIA | IND 12 | 4 | 12 | 1:34 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:27 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 33 | 4 | -1 | 1:10 | Punt | |
| 14 | IND | IND 23 | 1 | 0 | 0:15 | End of half | |
| 15 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 2 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 16 | MIA | MIA 34 | 4 | -3 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 17 | IND | IND 37 | 10 | 56 | 4:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 19 | IND | MIA 49 | 10 | 33 | 5:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 25 | 3 | 6 | 0:44 | Interception | |
| 21 | IND | MIA 34 | 8 | 34 | 3:24 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | MIA | MIA 25 | 13 | 55 | 5:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | IND | IND 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:08 | Interception | |
| 24 | MIA | IND 35 | 4 | 5 | 2:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | IND | IND 25 | 13 | 67 | 2:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 26 | MIA | MIA 8 | 1 | 0 | 0:40 | End of game |
0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 67 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- IND -11
- Closing total
- 44.5
- MIA moneyline
- +390
- IND moneyline
- -481
Colts closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Clay Martin
- Rest
- MIA 7 days · IND 7 days
- Coaches
- Brian Flores vs Frank Reich