For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Minnesota Vikings 28, Cowboys 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:44, 4th and 5, on D.Prescott — 42.9 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:44 · 4th and 5
D.Prescott
Vikings
(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).
Dome
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:44, Vikings +42.9% win probability on one snap.
42.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CookVikingsQ3 0:06(:06) 33-D.Cook right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-99-A.Woods was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
14.6pts
E.ElliottVikingsQ4 1:06(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left end to MIN 14 for -3 yards (95-I.Odenigbo).
11.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Vikings at 8 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Vikings174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).
Swing −42.9 for CowboysExpected points −2.84 for CowboysThe model had Vikings 3 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:44MIN +43% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).
3rd · 0:06DAL +15% win prob(:06) 33-D.Cook right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-99-A.Woods was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 1:06MIN +11% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left end to MIN 14 for -3 yards (95-I.Odenigbo).
4th · 3:10DAL +11% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 31 for 20 yards (21-M.Hughes).
2nd · 2:00DAL +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-91-S.Weatherly, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 0:03MIN +10% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at MIN -4. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Cook's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:06 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
3rd0:06D.Cook·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+828–21
4th10:03B.Maher·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+328–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryCowboys
Vikings3–4Cowboys
366Total yards443
5.2Yards per play6.3
47%Success rate43%
57%Third-down rate60%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays9
25First downs22
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Vikings: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.17Cowboys: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Vikings: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.42Cowboys: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Vikings: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.38Cowboys: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Cowboys 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 9.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Cowboys20.0%
leaned — got home · +5.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 25.7 points above their season mean of 24.3% and 1.3 times their own 20.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Adam RedmondCJoe JacksonDETrysten HillDTLuke GiffordLBCameron FlemingTDevin SmithWRCed WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Xavier Su'a-FiloGCooper RushQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−39% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).
Q4 0:44 · Cowboys · 4th & 5 at MIN 14 · gained nothing · -2.84 EP · −38.8% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 90 yards from the MIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
42%
Yards
809
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.2274%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.2179%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.3738%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.069%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1570%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.070%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0340%
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Vikings3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 39
Vikings6Cowboys0
Vikings7Cowboys0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Cowboys 1
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 48
Vikings13Cowboys0
Vikings14Cowboys0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Vikings 40
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 6 to the Vikings 25
Vikings14Cowboys6
Vikings14Cowboys7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 23
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 31
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Vikings14Cowboys13
Vikings14Cowboys14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Vikings 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Vikings17Cowboys14
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 8
3rd quarter43 plays
Vikings20Cowboys14
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 9
Vikings20Cowboys20
Vikings20Cowboys21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 12
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, four linebackers and two backsIn the boxTen defenders
Vikings26Cowboys21
Vikings28Cowboys21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings28Cowboys24
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Vikings 5
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Vikings 11
Punt7 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.1 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Vikings 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3.5
Closing total
48.5
Vikings moneyline
+160
Cowboys moneyline
-179
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Cowboys 6 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Jason Garrett
4th · 11:36
DAL +10% win prob
(11:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to MIN 6 for 24 yards (55-A.Barr).
2nd · 0:41DAL +10% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Diggs. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to DAL 26 for 27 yards (25-X.Woods).
