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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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New York Jets 34, Giants 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:23, 3rd and 1, on D.Jones — 22.9 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Giants closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 34–27. Biggest swing: Q3 14:23, Jets +22.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:23 · 3rd and 1
D.Jones
Jets
(14:23) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams) [33-J.Adams], RECOVERED by NYJ-33-J.Adams at NYG 25. 33-J.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.SlaytonGiantsQ2 5:33(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.2pts
G.TateGiantsQ3 12:01(12:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets won this one — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.75 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 18 on third down, against Jets at 4 of 13 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Giants172 of 180 plays carry both curves
(14:23) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams) [33-J.Adams], RECOVERED by NYJ-33-J.Adams at NYG 25. 33-J.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.9 for JetsExpected points +8.10 for JetsThe model had Jets 13 points higher than the market did.play 89
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:23NYG +23% win prob(14:23) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams) [33-J.Adams], RECOVERED by NYJ-33-J.Adams at NYG 25. 33-J.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:01NYJ +22% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:33NYJ +16% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00NYJ +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-Ro.Anderson (27-D.Baker). PENALTY on NYG-27-D.Baker, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at NYG 34 - No Play.
3rd · 5:26NYJ +12% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 15-G.Tate for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:57NYJ +12% win prob(9:57) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-D.Thomas to NYG 22 for 47 yards (23-S.Beal).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.Bell's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 14:55 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
3rd1:46S.Ficken·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+327–24
4th14:55L.Bell·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–31
4th7:39S.Ficken·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+327–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryJets
Giants1–5Jets
283Total yards295
4.4Yards per play4.9
29%Success rate32%
50%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
15First downs15
6Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Jets ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Giants: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.22Jets: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.75Giants: −0.75 expected points added per play
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 65 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Jets 4.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 9 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.5 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.6% in week 9 against 47.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jets18.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.2%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 14.4% and 1.5 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Will HernandezG · Every snap100%69 snaps
65Nick GatesG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Spencer PulleyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
15Golden TateWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time94%65 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time83%57 snaps
18Bennie FowlerWR · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
79Eric SmithOT · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
82Kaden SmithTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
85Rhett EllisonTE · Rotational48%33 snaps
76Nate SolderT · Situational23%16 snaps
22Wayne GallmanRB · Situational17%12 snaps
39Elijhaa PennyRB · Situational14%10 snaps
12Cody LatimerWR · Situational9%6 snaps
17Cody CoreWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jon HalapioCChad SladeGChris PeaceLBAlex TanneyQBMike RemmersTEvan EngramTESterling ShepardWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Eli ManningQB
New York Jets
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Alex LewisG · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Chuma EdogaT · Every snap100%65 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time83%54 snaps
18Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation72%47 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
67Brian WintersG · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
77Tom ComptonG · Rotational38%25 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
89Chris HerndonTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
29Bilal PowellRB · Situational23%15 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational17%11 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational8%5 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ryan KalilCDarryl RobertsCBJordan WillisDEC.J. MosleyILBNeville HewittOLBBlake CountessSSConor McDermottT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
David FalesQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−23% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:23) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams) [33-J.Adams], RECOVERED by NYJ-33-J.Adams at NYG 25. 33-J.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:23 · Giants · 3rd & 1 at NYG 34 · lost 9 · -8.10 EP · −22.7% win probability
170 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 76 yards from the NYJ 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
33%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0382%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0564%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.2430%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2757%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2317%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.440%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Giants0Jets6
Giants0Jets7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Giants 2
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 20
Giants0Jets13
Giants0Jets14
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Giants 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 28
2nd quarter48 plays
Giants6Jets14
Giants7Jets14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Jets 5
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Giants13Jets14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Jets 39
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 19
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 39
No good5 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 36
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 44 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSeven
Giants13Jets20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 34
Giants13Jets21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Giants19Jets21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 39
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants25Jets21
Giants27Jets21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Jets 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Giants27Jets24
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Giants 35
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 41
4th quarter48 plays
Giants27Jets30
Giants27Jets31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 1
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 44
Giants27Jets34
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Giants 17
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 35
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 36
The period ended1 play
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Giants 46
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Giantscategory by categoryJets
Giants0
Jets6
