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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 27 at San Francisco 49ers 24. Final.
49ers -6.5 upsetO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 10
Seattle Seahawks 27, 49ers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 1:57, 4th and 2 — 65.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:57 · 4th and 2
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
(1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
65.2
49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:57, Seahawks +65.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.Greenlaw49ersOT 5:49(5:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 48-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [24-K.Williams] at SF 4. 57-D.Greenlaw pushed ob at SEA 49 for 47 yards (76-D.Brown).
50.2pts
Unnamed on the sheet49ersOT 1:36(1:36) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to SEA 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 83-D.Moore to SEA 36 for 4 yards (88-G.Celek).
65.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 3 giveaways, against Seahawks at 4 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 5 chunk plays, against 49ers at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks199 of 217 plays carry both curves
(1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
Swing −65.2 for 49ersExpected points +0.91 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 204
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:57SF +65% win prob(1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
Overtime · 1:36SF +65% win prob(1:36) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to SEA 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 83-D.Moore to SEA 36 for 4 yards (88-G.Celek).
Overtime · 5:49SEA +50% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 48-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [24-K.Williams] at SF 4. 57-D.Greenlaw pushed ob at SEA 49 for 47 yards (76-D.Brown).
Overtime · 8:12SF +37% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-M.Turner to SF 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 44. 12-yac The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 1:16SF +27% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right tackle to SF 39 for 18 yards (20-J.Ward).
4th · 12:12SEA +24% win prob(12:12) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 25 for -10 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 24-K.Williams). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead) [24-K.Williams], recovered by SEA-65-G.Ifedi at SEA 23. 65-G.Ifedi to SEA 18 for -5 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at SEA 12. 99-D.Buckner for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Myers's 42-yard field goal with 0:04 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:24C.McLaughlin·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+30–3
4th6:21C.McLaughlin·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+321–21
4th1:49J.Myers·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+324–21
4th0:06C.McLaughlin·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+324–24
Overtime0:04J.Myers·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+327–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks7–149ers
336Total yards305
4.7Yards per play4.0
46%Success rate34%
47%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
20First downs18
5Sacks taken5
4Turnovers3
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Seahawks: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.3649ers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Seahawks: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.4149ers: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Seahawks: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.2649ers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against 49ers’s 77 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, 49ers 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 17.6%, is past their previous high of 13.2% in week 4 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 9.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 46.9% in week 9 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
49ers18.6%
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 17.6%, 7.6 points above their season mean of 10.1% and 1.5 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Dickson punts+65% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
OT 1:57 · Seahawks · 4th & 2 at SEA 45 · gained nothing · -0.91 EP · +65.2% win probability
197 snaps placed · 20 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 217 plays across 32 drives, personnel groupings on 217 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 32 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 83 yards from the SF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
217 of 217 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
217
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
39%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.4358%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.5992%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27-0.2744%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0620%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.2922%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.3180%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.0520%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
217 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
217 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Seahawks049ers3
Field goal17 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 25
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Seahawks049ers9
Seahawks049ers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Seahawks 9
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Seahawks 33
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the 49ers 33
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks649ers10
Touchdown2 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 23
Seahawks749ers10
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the 49ers 27
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 22
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the 49ers 47
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the Seahawks 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the 49ers 48
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 41
Seahawks1349ers10
Seahawks1449ers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the 49ers 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 40
Seahawks2049ers10
Seahawks2149ers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 1
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
4th quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Seahawks2149ers16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 35
Seahawks2149ers18
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Seahawks2149ers21
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Seahawks 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Seahawks2449ers21
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 27
Seahawks2449ers24
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Seahawks 29
The period ended2 plays
Overtime37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Seahawks 45
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
Seahawks2749ers24
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the 49ers 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6.5
Closing total
47
Seahawks moneyline
+233
49ers moneyline
-268
49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 51 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 72°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Seahawks 8 days · 49ers 11 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:06SF +20% win prob(:06) 5-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
Overtime · 9:31SF +19% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Gordon to SEA 46 for 14 yards (25-R.Sherman). Caught at SEA 45. 1-yac
