2019 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 11, 2019 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -6.5 upsetO 47 ✓49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:57, SF +65% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 1:57SEA — SF SEA ball · 4th & 2SF 83%

(1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 1:57SF +65% win prob(1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
OT · 1:36SF +65% win prob(1:36) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to SEA 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 83-D.Moore to SEA 36 for 4 yards (88-G.Celek).
OT · 5:49SEA +50% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 48-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [24-K.Williams] at SF 4. 57-D.Greenlaw pushed ob at SEA 49 for 47 yards (76-D.Brown).
OT · 8:12SF +37% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-M.Turner to SF 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 44. 12-yac The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	72	77
Total yards	336 (edge)	305
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.30 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	46% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	60%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34 (edge)	-0.41
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	5	5
Turnovers	4	3 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	14	35	6:41	Turnover on downs
2	SEA	SEA 25	5	1	2:02	Punt
3	SF	SF 17	8	83	4:14	Touchdown
4	SEA	SEA 29	5	4	1:32	Punt
5	SF	SF 26	4	7	2:04	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 40	6	23	2:48	Punt
7	SF	SF 8	8	36	3:30	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 17	7	24	3:31	Punt
9	SF	SF 20	2	-10	0:47	Defensive touchdown
10	SF	SF 25	5	1	1:04	Punt
11	SEA	SF 39	3	37	0:43	Fumble
12	SF	SF 2	3	20	1:04	End of half
13	SEA	SEA 22	7	31	2:59	Fumble
14	SF	SF 44	4	8	1:59	Turnover on downs
15	SEA	SEA 33	6	10	2:55	Punt
16	SF	SF 30	3	11	1:00	Interception
17	SEA	SF 16	4	16	1:30	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 25	4	-6	0:58	Fumble
19	SEA	SF 24	5	24	1:57	Touchdown
20	SF	SF 25	8	10	2:38	Punt
21	SEA	SEA 20	4	3	2:03	Defensive touchdown
22	SEA	SEA 25	5	7	1:39	Punt
23	SF	SF 31	8	48	4:05	Turnover on downs
24	SEA	SEA 25	12	47	4:32	Turnover on downs
25	SF	SF 26	11	40	1:44	Turnover on downs
26	SEA	—	1	0	0:01	Turnover on downs
27	SEA	SEA 25	10	61	4:26	Interception
28	SF	SEA 49	7	20	2:28	Turnover on downs
29	SEA	SEA 37	4	8	1:16	Punt
30	SF	SF 20	4	0	0:25	Punt
31	SEA	SEA 36	7	40	1:25	Turnover on downs

0 of 31 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -6.5
Closing total: 47
SEA moneyline: +233
SF moneyline: -268

49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 51 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: SEA 8 days · SF 11 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.