For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 26 at San Francisco 49ers 36. Final.
49ers -10 pushO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
San Francisco 49ers 36, Cardinals 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:41, 3rd and 7, on J.Thompson — 32.4 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:41 · 3rd and 7
J.Thompson
Cardinals
(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 82-R.Dwelley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 7. 34-J.Thompson to ARI 25 for 18 yards (75-L.Tomlinson).
49ers closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
San Francisco 49ers 36–26. Biggest swing: Q4 4:41, Cardinals +32.4% win probability on one snap.
32.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.Murray49ersQ4 3:05(3:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 19 for -11 yards (91-A.Armstead).
18.6pts
J.Wilson49ersQ4 0:37(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 30-J.Wilson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 20. 20-yac
30.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 10 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cardinals174 of 188 plays carry both curves
(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 82-R.Dwelley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 7. 34-J.Thompson to ARI 25 for 18 yards (75-L.Tomlinson).
Swing −32.4 for 49ersExpected points −4.20 for 49ersThe model had Cardinals 9 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:41ARI +32% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 82-R.Dwelley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 7. 34-J.Thompson to ARI 25 for 18 yards (75-L.Tomlinson).
4th · 0:37SF +30% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 30-J.Wilson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 20. 20-yac
4th · 3:05ARI +19% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 19 for -11 yards (91-A.Armstead).
4th · 6:35SF +15% win prob(6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:32ARI +15% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at ARI 5. 58-J.Hicks to SF 47 for 48 yards (84-K.Bourne).
2nd · 9:03SF +14% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at ARI 18 for 57 yards (21-P.Peterson). Caught at SF 20. 62-yac
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Wilson's 25-yard touchdown catch with 0:37 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st10:35Z.Gonzalez·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–0
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.0649ers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Cardinals: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.2649ers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Cardinals: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.4949ers: −0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 62 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against 49ers’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 70.6%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, +5.4 pts, is past their previous high of −0.7 pts in week 10 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 10 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
49ers13.5%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.6%, 23.6 points above their season mean of 47.0% and 2.2 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass+28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 30-J.Wilson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 20. 20-yac
Q4 0:37 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at ARI 25 · gained 25 · +3.47 EP · +28.2% win probability
172 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0286%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.0441%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.4479%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.2362%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10-1.28100%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.3811%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Cardinals349ers0
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 2
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
Cardinals949ers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the 49ers 5
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Cardinals 40
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
Cardinals1549ers0
Cardinals1649ers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the 49ers 5
Cardinals1649ers6
Cardinals1649ers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 4
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 39
Cardinals1649ers10
Field goal18 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Cardinals 16
3rd quarter39 plays
Cardinals1649ers16
Cardinals1649ers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the Cardinals 3
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Cardinals 12
Cardinals1949ers17
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 29
4th quarter55 plays
Cardinals1949ers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cardinals2549ers23
Cardinals2649ers23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the 49ers 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Cardinals 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Drive ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Cardinals2649ers29
Cardinals2649ers30
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Cardinals 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 21
Cardinals2649ers36
Touchdown2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -10
Closing total
44
Cardinals moneyline
+353
49ers moneyline
-429
49ers closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 44; the game landed 62 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · 49ers 6 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 12:03SF +13% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Kirk. Arizona challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Kirk. SF-20-J.Ward was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on SF-25-R.Sherman, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.
3rd · 2:58SF +11% win prob(2:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
