2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -10 pushO 44 ✓49ers closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

San Francisco 49ers 36–26. Biggest swing: Q4 4:41, ARI +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:41ARI — SF SF ball · 3rd & 7SF 62%

(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 82-R.Dwelley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 7. 34-J.Thompson to ARI 25 for 18 yards (75-L.Tomlinson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:41ARI +32% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 82-R.Dwelley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 7. 34-J.Thompson to ARI 25 for 18 yards (75-L.Tomlinson).
Q4 · 0:37SF +30% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 30-J.Wilson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 20. 20-yac
Q4 · 3:05ARI +19% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 19 for -11 yards (91-A.Armstead).
Q4 · 6:35SF +15% win prob(6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	62	67
Total yards	266	442 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.49
Third downs	3/10	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	11	36	4:29	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 25	5	5	1:19	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 19	12	73	5:08	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 27	5	5	1:27	Turnover on downs
5	ARI	ARI 41	4	-1	1:24	Punt
6	SF	SF 15	4	-8	2:07	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 43	10	57	5:03	Touchdown
8	SF	SF 25	7	75	1:11	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 19	7	2	3:06	Punt
10	SF	SF 20	11	47	4:46	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 16	8	79	3:53	Touchdown
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	-4	1:32	Punt
13	SF	SF 37	7	48	4:16	Interception
14	ARI	SF 47	7	22	2:25	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 25	12	75	5:40	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 22	12	78	5:44	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 33	7	43	1:58	Interception
18	ARI	ARI 25	4	-6	2:20	Punt
19	SF	SF 35	9	65	1:41	Touchdown
20	ARI	ARI 25	2	5	0:06	Fumble
21	SF	ARI 30	4	8	0:19	Turnover on downs
22	ARI	ARI 22	2	4	0:06	Defensive touchdown

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -10
Closing total: 44
ARI moneyline: +353
SF moneyline: -429

49ers closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 44; the game landed 62 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 6 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.