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2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta29
BY 26final margin
PanthersCarolina3
Atlanta Falcons 29 at Carolina Panthers 3. Final.
Panthers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Atlanta Falcons 29, Panthers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 1:18, 4th and 19 — 11.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:18 · 4th and 19
Unnamed on the sheet
Falcons
(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 49 ✓
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 29–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:18, Falcons +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CampbellFalconsQ1 10:55(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [98-T.McKinley] at CAR 25. 59-D.Campbell to CAR 30 for -5 yards (12-D.Moore).
9.8pts
K.AllenFalconsQ1 5:51(5:51) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 22 for -13 yards (44-V.Beasley).
8.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 4 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 14 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Falcons165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.2 for PanthersExpected points −5.07 for PanthersThe model had Falcons 3 points higher than the market did.play 36
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
1st · 10:55ATL +10% win prob(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [98-T.McKinley] at CAR 25. 59-D.Campbell to CAR 30 for -5 yards (12-D.Moore).
1st · 5:51ATL +9% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 22 for -13 yards (44-V.Beasley).
2nd · 1:49CAR +9% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to CAR 3 for 48 yards (59-L.Kuechly) [97-M.Addison]. PENALTY on CAR-97-M.Addison, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced at CAR 3.
1st · 13:42CAR +8% win prob(13:42) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley ran ob at CAR 26 for 34 yards [55-B.Irvin].
2nd · 12:07CAR +6% win prob(12:07) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at ATL 30 for 8 yards (45-D.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Y.Koo's 38-yard field goal with 11:39 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:39Y.Koo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+33–0
1st1:18K.Barner·78-yd return TD78-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+710–0
2nd5:45Y.Koo·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+313–0
4th13:04J.Slye·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+326–3
4th7:05Y.Koo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+329–3
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons8–0Panthers
351Total yards347
5.8Yards per play5.0
43%Success rate40%
43%Third-down rate14%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays5
20First downs17
3Sacks taken5
0Turnovers4
The read
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Falcons: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.29Panthers: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Falcons: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.32Panthers: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.18Panthers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 60 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Panthers’s 70 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Panthers 2.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 11.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 40.4 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, is past their previous high of 71.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 12.5% in week 10 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Panthers25.0%
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 19.6%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 10.2% and 1.4 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
46 dressed · 7 inactive
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Jamon BrownG · Every snap100%65 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Full-time98%64 snaps
77James CarpenterG · Full-time98%64 snaps
51Alex MackC · Full-time98%64 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Full-time98%64 snaps
11Julio JonesWR · Full-time82%53 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time80%52 snaps
80Luke StockerTE · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
23Brian HillHB · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Rotational48%31 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational25%16 snaps
38Kenjon BarnerRB · Situational22%14 snaps
30Qadree OllisonRB · Situational18%12 snaps
14Justin HardyWR · Situational18%12 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Situational15%10 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational11%7 snaps
74Ty SambrailoT · Situational5%3 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Situational2%1 snap
8Matt SchaubQB · Situational2%1 snap
64Sean HarlowG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
John CominskyDEKemal IshmaelFSDeadrin SenatNTDevonta FreemanRBMatt GonoTAustin HooperTEBrandon PowellWR
Carolina Panthers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%74 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%74 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Greg LittleT · Every snap100%74 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Every snap99%73 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time96%71 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Full-time93%69 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time93%69 snaps
88Greg OlsenTE · Full-time92%68 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Situational12%9 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational11%8 snaps
39Reggie BonnafonRB · Situational9%7 snaps
60Daryl WilliamsT · Situational7%5 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Situational4%3 snaps
19Donte MoncriefWR · Situational4%3 snaps
18DeAndrew WhiteWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ross CockrellCBJordan KunaszykLBChristian MillerLBKyle LoveNTMike DavisRBDennis DaleyTBrandon ZylstraWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Will GrierQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Palardy punts−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:18 · Panthers · 4th & 19 at CAR 21 · gained nothing · -5.07 EP · −14.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 78 yards from the CAR 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
37%
Yards
696
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.3584%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1272%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3350%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.4436%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.3563%
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.31100%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Falcons3Panthers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
No good8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 13
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 35
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 45
Falcons9Panthers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 30
Falcons10Panthers0
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
2nd quarter55 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Falcons 15
Falcons13Panthers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Panthers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 30
Falcons19Panthers0
Falcons20Panthers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Panthers 2
Intercepted16 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Falcons 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Falcons 34
Falcons26Panthers0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Panthers 6
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 34
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Falcons 39
4th quarter42 plays
Falcons26Panthers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 13
Falcons29Panthers3
Field goal15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 1
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 21
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 21
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 41
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
