2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Atlanta FalconsWinner
29
Carolina Panthers
3
Atlanta Falcons 29–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:18, ATL +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 1:18ATL +11% win prob(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 10:55ATL +10% win prob(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [98-T.McKinley] at CAR 25. 59-D.Campbell to CAR 30 for -5 yards (12-D.Moore).
- Q1 · 5:51ATL +9% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 22 for -13 yards (44-V.Beasley).
- Q2 · 1:49CAR +9% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to CAR 3 for 48 yards (59-L.Kuechly) [97-M.Addison]. PENALTY on CAR-97-M.Addison, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced at CAR 3.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Falcons | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 60 | 70 |
| Total yards | 351 (edge) | 347 |
| Yards per play | 5.8 (edge) | 5.0 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.16 (edge) | -0.29 |
| Success rate | 43% (edge) | 40% |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.35 (edge) | -0.32 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 (edge) | -0.18 |
| Third downs | 6/14 (edge) | 2/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 4 |
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 25 | 9 | 55 | 3:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 25 | 4 | 6 | 0:54 | Interception | |
| 3 | ATL | CAR 30 | 7 | 15 | 4:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 28 | 4 | -6 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | 50 | 4 | 5 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 20 | 6 | 1 | 2:36 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 7 | CAR | CAR 25 | 13 | 60 | 5:17 | Interception | |
| 8 | ATL | ATL 20 | 10 | 75 | 5:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 26 | 5 | 12 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 10 | ATL | ATL 29 | 8 | 75 | 1:23 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 8 | 11 | 70 | 1:31 | Interception | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | End of half | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 24 | 8 | 44 | 3:28 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 47 | 11 | 53 | 4:52 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 18 | 1:44 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | ATL | CAR 33 | 4 | -8 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 9 | 12 | 78 | 4:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | ATL | ATL 25 | 13 | 74 | 5:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 25 | 10 | 69 | 2:20 | Interception | |
| 20 | ATL | ATL 14 | 4 | 7 | 2:54 | Punt | |
| 21 | CAR | CAR 35 | 4 | -5 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 22 | ATL | ATL 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:11 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- CAR -3.5
- Closing total
- 49
- ATL moneyline
- +177
- CAR moneyline
- -199
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 32 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Bank of America Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 51°F, wind 11 mph
- Referee
- Adrian Hill
- Rest
- ATL 7 days · CAR 7 days
- Coaches
- Dan Quinn vs Ron Rivera
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.