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2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
BearsChicago7
BY 10final margin
RamsLos Angeles17
Chicago Bears 7 at Los Angeles Rams 17. Final.
Rams -5 ✓U 40 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Los Angeles Rams 17, Bears 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:16, 3rd and 10, on T.Cohen — 11.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:16 · 3rd and 10
T.Cohen
Bears
(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Rams closed -5 and covered, winning by 10.
Los Angeles Rams 17–7. Biggest swing: Q3 7:16, Bears +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.SmithBearsQ1 6:25(6:25) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 17. 58-R.Smith to CHI 17 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
10.6pts
C.KuppRamsQ2 3:51(3:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-C.Kupp for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-C.Kupp to CHI 1 for 50 yards (24-B.Skrine). FUMBLES (24-B.Skrine), ball out of bounds at CHI 1.
10.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bears at 2 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Rams at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Bears158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.0 for RamsExpected points −3.32 for RamsThe model had Bears 6 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:16LA +11% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:25CHI +11% win prob(6:25) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 17. 58-R.Smith to CHI 17 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
2nd · 3:51LA +10% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-C.Kupp for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-C.Kupp to CHI 1 for 50 yards (24-B.Skrine). FUMBLES (24-B.Skrine), ball out of bounds at CHI 1.
4th · 5:06LA +9% win prob(5:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 83-J.Reynolds to CHI 22 for 26 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
1st · 1:02CHI +9% win prob(1:02) 15-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
1st · 11:54CHI +8% win prob(11:54) 30-T.Gurley right tackle to LA 43 for 5 yards (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-21-H.Clinton-Dix at LA 47. 21-H.Clinton-Dix to LA 46 for 1 yard (18-C.Kupp).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
G.Zuerlein's 38-yard field goal with 11:38 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd11:38G.Zuerlein·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+30–3
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Bears: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.12Rams: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.23Rams: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Bears: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.33Rams: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 74 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Rams’s 50 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Bears 1, Rams 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, −17.0 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −8.4 pts in week 6.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 32.5%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 47.4% in week 7.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 10.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Rams9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.0 pts, 18.6 points below their season mean of 1.6 pts and 2.4 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
46 dressed · 7 inactive
69Rashaad CowardOT · Every snap100%76 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%76 snaps
68James DanielsC · Every snap100%76 snaps
65Cody WhitehairOG · Every snap100%76 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Every snap99%75 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Full-time91%69 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Full-time91%69 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Full-time86%65 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Heavy rotation75%57 snaps
82Ben BrauneckerTE · Heavy rotation66%50 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Heavy rotation59%45 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Rotational46%35 snaps
73Cornelius LucasT · Rotational26%20 snaps
81J.P. HoltzTE · Situational24%18 snaps
83Javon WimsWR · Situational20%15 snaps
4Chase DanielQB · Situational9%7 snaps
35Ryan NallRB · Situational4%3 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
85Bradley SowellTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Duke ShelleyDBAbdullah AndersonDTDanny TrevathanILBIsaiah IrvingLBAlex BarsTAdam ShaheenTERiley RidleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:25) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 17. 58-R.Smith to CHI 17 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
Q1 6:25 · Rams · 2nd & 7 at CHI 27 · gained nothing · -4.29 EP · −13.1% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
37%
Yards
550
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1568%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32-0.2622%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.2365%
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8-0.2075%
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.29100%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.630%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
No good10 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Rams 30
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 31
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Bears 27
No good13 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Rams 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 47
2nd quarter39 plays
Bears0Rams3
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Bears 20
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 46
Bears0Rams9
Bears0Rams10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Bears 1
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Rams 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 37
Bears6Rams10
Bears7Rams10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Rams 14
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 29
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 43 to the Bears 43
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 24
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 36
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 26
Bears7Rams16
Bears7Rams17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Bears 5
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
