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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
BengalsCincinnati10
BY 7final margin
RaidersOakland17
Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Oakland Raiders 17. Final.
Raiders -13 no coverU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Oakland Raiders 17, Bengals 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:30, 1st and 10, on J.Mixon — 11.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:30 · 1st and 10
J.Mixon
Bengals
(9:30) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 45 for 30 yards (35-C.Riley).
11.1
Raiders closed -13, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Oakland Raiders 17–10. Biggest swing: Q1 9:30, Bengals +11.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CarrRaidersQ1 12:56(12:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 41 for -9 yards (sack split by 97-G.Atkins and 96-C.Dunlap).
7.3pts
J.MixonBengalsQ1 3:09(3:09) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.5pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 36.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 99 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Bengals158 of 172 plays carry both curves
(9:30) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 45 for 30 yards (35-C.Riley).
Swing −11.1 for RaidersExpected points −2.06 for RaidersThe model had Bengals 32 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:30OAK +11% win prob(9:30) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 45 for 30 yards (35-C.Riley).
1st · 3:09OAK +8% win prob(3:09) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:56CIN +7% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 41 for -9 yards (sack split by 97-G.Atkins and 96-C.Dunlap).
2nd · 15:00OAK +7% win prob(15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 31 for 6 yards (31-I.Johnson; 45-A.Ingold).
2nd · 9:15OAK +7% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to CIN 11 for 27 yards (22-W.Jackson III).
4th · 6:51OAK +7% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass deep middle to 19-A.Tate to LV 33 for 20 yards (35-C.Riley). CIN-19-A.Tate was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.
1st · 1:14
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Carr's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:44 left in the 2nd put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd1:44D.Carr·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–14
3rd7:28R.Bullock·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–14
4th9:15D.Carlson·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+310–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.3 pts in week 10 against +1.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0% against a season mean of 32.2% — and CIN swings 25.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Jacobs right−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:41) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle to CIN 7 for 10 yards (91-J.Tupou). FUMBLES (91-J.Tupou), RECOVERED by CIN-59-N.Vigil at CIN 9. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 15 for 6 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
Q1 9:41 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 17 · gained 8 · -5.16 EP · −13.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 91 yards from the LV 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
632
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3972%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2768%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.0247%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.0720%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.8357%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.4214%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3533%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 17
Bengals6Raiders0
Bengals7Raiders0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Raiders 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 38
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
Drive ended4 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 32
Bengals7Raiders6
Bengals7Raiders7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Bengals 2
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 23
Bengals7Raiders13
Bengals7Raiders14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Bengals 2
No good10 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Raiders 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Raiders 45
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 44
Bengals10Raiders14
Field goal5 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 22
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 33
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Raiders 41
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 18
Bengals10Raiders17
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Bengals 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Raiders 27
Punt13 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Bengals 33
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
