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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:52 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 35, Lions 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:46, 3rd and 9, on M.Gallup — 12.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:46 · 3rd and 9
M.Gallup
Cowboys
(5:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup to DET 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Ford). Penalty on DET-38-M.Ford, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Dome
Cowboys closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Dallas Cowboys 35–27. Biggest swing: Q2 5:46, Cowboys +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ1 11:37(11:37) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to DET 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew to DET 47 for 10 yards (23-D.Thompson). PENALTY on DET-49-C.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.
8.9pts
T.PollardCowboysQ2 14:19(14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 6 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Cowboys172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(5:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup to DET 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Ford). Penalty on DET-38-M.Ford, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing −12.4 for LionsExpected points −3.60 for LionsThe model had Lions 29 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:46DET +12% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup to DET 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Ford). Penalty on DET-38-M.Ford, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 14:19DET +10% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:37DET +9% win prob(11:37) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to DET 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew to DET 47 for 10 yards (23-D.Thompson). PENALTY on DET-49-C.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.
1st · 3:04DAL +8% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DET 12 for -10 yards (42-D.Kennard).
1st · 12:38DET +8% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 43-B.Scarbrough up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-96-M.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 10:35DET +7% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep left to 17-M.Hall ran ob at DAL 9 for 39 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
E.Elliott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 4:42 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Cowboys: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Cowboys: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Cowboys: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.09Lions: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 69 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 6, Lions 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +13.8 pts, is past their previous high of +0.8 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, −11.3 pts, is past their previous low of −7.4 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Lions12.2%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.8 pts, 16.1 points above their season mean of -2.4 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%73 snaps
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%73 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time89%65 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Full-time86%63 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Full-time86%63 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time82%60 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation56%41 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Rotational40%29 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Situational16%12 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational15%11 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational15%11 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational15%11 snaps
83Ventell BryantWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Joe JacksonDETrysten HillDTConnor WilliamsGLuke GiffordLBJeff HeathSSDevin SmithWRCed WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cooper RushQB
Detroit Lions
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Every snap100%62 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%62 snaps
2Jeff DriskelQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
66Joe DahlG · Full-time95%59 snaps
60Graham GlasgowC · Full-time95%59 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Full-time92%57 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time87%54 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Full-time85%53 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Heavy rotation55%34 snaps
43Bo ScarbroughRB · Heavy rotation50%31 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
79Kenny WigginsG · Rotational32%20 snaps
31Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational29%18 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Situational23%14 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Situational21%13 snaps
17Marvin HallWR · Situational21%13 snaps
46Nick BawdenFB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mike JacksonDBRomeo OkwaraDEDa'Shawn HandDLBeau BenzschawelGDan SkipperGMatthew StaffordQBRick WagnerT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
David BloughQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup to DET 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Ford). Penalty on DET-38-M.Ford, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 5:46 · Cowboys · 3rd & 9 at 50 · gained 41 · +3.60 EP · +16.9% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 84 yards from the DAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
823
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.5173%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1857%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.2867%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4675%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1150%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5220%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.3940%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Cowboys0Lions6
Cowboys0Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Cowboys 5
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 15
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 36
Cowboys3Lions7
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Lions 2
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Lions 40
2nd quarter49 plays
Cowboys9Lions7
Cowboys10Lions7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 21
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 27
Cowboys10Lions13
Cowboys10Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Cowboys16Lions14
Cowboys17Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 1
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Lions 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Cowboys23Lions14
Cowboys24Lions14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Lions 19
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Cowboys24Lions20
Cowboys24Lions21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 9
Cowboys27Lions21
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 16
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 45
4th quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 49 to the Cowboys 43
Cowboys33Lions21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Lions 17
Cowboys35Lions21
Cowboys35Lions27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 25
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Lions 40
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Cowboys 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
