For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver23
BY 4final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
Denver Broncos 23 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Vikings -10 no coverO 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Minnesota Vikings 27, Broncos 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 3rd and 4, on B.Allen — 31.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 3rd and 4
B.Allen
Vikings
(:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
31.4
Dome
Vikings closed -10, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Vikings +31.4% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
B.McManusVikingsQ4 8:19(8:19) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
16.2pts
T.PatrickBroncosQ4 1:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to MIN 24 for 6 yards (21-M.Hughes).
16.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 5 of 18 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Broncos175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
Swing +31.4 for VikingsExpected points +2.83 for VikingsThe model had Broncos 13 points higher than the market did.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02DEN +31% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
4th · 1:57MIN +17% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to MIN 24 for 6 yards (21-M.Hughes).
4th · 8:19DEN +16% win prob(8:19) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
4th · 6:10MIN +16% win prob(6:10) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:29MIN +15% win prob(10:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:34MIN +14% win prob(2:34) 2-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to DEN 31, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Penalty on DEN-97-J.Attaochu, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
2nd · 1:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Rudolph's 32-yard touchdown catch with 6:10 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:36B.McManus·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
4th6:10K.Rudolph·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom K.Cousinsfrom K.CousinsLead never changed again+723–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryVikings
Broncos4–4Vikings
394Total yards321
5.3Yards per play5.4
41%Success rate47%
28%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
17First downs19
2Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Broncos: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Broncos: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.17Vikings: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Broncos: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 75 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Vikings’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +2.7 pts, is past their previous high of −1.8 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Vikings14.0%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.5%, 23.4 points above their season mean of 47.0% and 1.7 times their own 14.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%79 snaps
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%79 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%79 snaps
2Brandon AllenQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
65Ronald LearyG · Every snap100%79 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap99%78 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time89%70 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Full-time86%68 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Heavy rotation52%41 snaps
84Troy FumagalliTE · Rotational37%29 snaps
83Andrew BeckTE · Rotational30%24 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Rotational29%23 snaps
32Andy JanovichRB · Situational18%14 snaps
19Fred BrownWR · Situational10%8 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Situational6%5 snaps
11Diontae SpencerWR · Situational6%5 snaps
71Austin SchlottmannG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Cyrus JonesCBDeMarcus WalkerDEJonathan HarrisDEJa'Wuan JamesOTCalvin AndersonTJeff HeuermanTEJuwann WinfreeWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Allen pass−44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
Q4 0:02 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at MIN 4 · gained nothing · -2.83 EP · −44.5% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 90 yards from the DEN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
715
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR46+0.1978%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2664%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3047%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.6357%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-1.3933%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Broncos3Vikings0
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Vikings 29
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Broncos 47
Broncos9Vikings0
Broncos10Vikings0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Vikings 3
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Vikings 16
2nd quarter46 plays
Broncos16Vikings0
Broncos17Vikings0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 1
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 36
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 47
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 25
Broncos20Vikings0
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 11
Fumble lost1 play
Intercepted1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 47
3rd quarter42 plays
Broncos20Vikings6
Broncos20Vikings7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Broncos 10
Broncos23Vikings7
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Vikings 23
The period ended16 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Broncos 32
4th quarter54 plays
Broncos23Vikings13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 3
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Broncos23Vikings19
Broncos23Vikings20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
No good8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Vikings 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Broncos23Vikings26
Broncos23Vikings27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Broncos 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended25 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Vikings 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -10
Closing total
40.5
Broncos moneyline
+341
Vikings moneyline
-412
Vikings closed -10, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 50 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Broncos 14 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Mike Zimmer
DEN +14% win prob
8-B.McManus kicks 68 yards from DEN 35 to MIN -3. 31-A.Abdullah to MIN 16 for 19 yards (34-W.Parks; 23-D.Booker). FUMBLES (34-W.Parks), RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at MIN 17. 47-J.Jewell to MIN 17 for no gain (30-C.Ham).
2nd · 1:00DEN +14% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Sendejo at MIN 2. 34-A.Sendejo to MIN 23 for 21 yards (17-D.Hamilton).
