2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium

Houston Texans

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -4 ✓U 51 ✓Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 34.

Baltimore Ravens 41–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:36, HOU +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:36HOU — BAL HOU ball · 1st & 10BAL 60%

(12:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -10 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-45-J.Ferguson at HOU 41. 45-J.Ferguson to HOU 41 for no gain (74-M.Scharping).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:36HOU +14% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -10 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-45-J.Ferguson at HOU 41. 45-J.Ferguson to HOU 41 for no gain (74-M.Scharping).
Q1 · 10:07HOU +10% win prob(10:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q2 · 9:24BAL +8% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 11-S.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:05HOU +8% win prob(2:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to HOU 39 for -2 yards (33-A.Moore).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Ravens
Offensive plays	57	62
Total yards	232	493 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	8.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	39%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.60	0.66 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 32	6	9	2:38	Fumble
2	BAL	HOU 41	7	16	2:20	Turnover on downs
3	HOU	HOU 33	8	34	4:16	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 33	7	28	3:45	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 39	5	1	1:58	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 10	11	80	5:46	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 25	6	13	2:41	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 30	8	70	4:22	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 25	12	45	2:08	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	BAL 33	1	0	0:06	End of half
11	BAL	BAL 22	8	48	3:27	Touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 25	7	2	1:52	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 32	6	52	2:49	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 25	6	20	2:08	Interception
15	BAL	HOU 39	6	16	3:14	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 25	8	51	1:48	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 29	9	81	4:52	Touchdown
18	HOU	HOU 23	7	62	2:40	Touchdown
19	BAL	BAL 13	7	87	3:09	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 30	5	-5	1:32	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	HOU 24	4	15	2:29	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 87 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4
Closing total: 51
HOU moneyline: +192
BAL moneyline: -217

Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 34.

Total closed 51; the game landed 48 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: HOU 14 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs John Harbaugh