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2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
TexansHouston7
BY 34final margin
RavensBaltimore41
Houston Texans 7 at Baltimore Ravens 41. Final.
Ravens -4 ✓U 51 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Baltimore Ravens 41, Texans 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:36, 1st and 10, on D.Watson — 14.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:36 · 1st and 10
D.Watson
Ravens
(12:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -10 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-45-J.Ferguson at HOU 41. 45-J.Ferguson to HOU 41 for no gain (74-M.Scharping).
Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 34.
Baltimore Ravens 41–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:36, Ravens +14.3% win probability on one snap.
14.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.TuckerTexansQ1 10:07(10:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
10.3pts
S.RobertsRavensQ2 9:24(9:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 11-S.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.66 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.60 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 10 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 4 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Texans159 of 166 plays carry both curves
(12:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -10 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-45-J.Ferguson at HOU 41. 45-J.Ferguson to HOU 41 for no gain (74-M.Scharping).
Swing +14.3 for RavensExpected points +6.53 for RavensThe model had Texans 8 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:36HOU +14% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -10 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-45-J.Ferguson at HOU 41. 45-J.Ferguson to HOU 41 for no gain (74-M.Scharping).
1st · 10:07HOU +10% win prob(10:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
2nd · 9:24BAL +8% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 11-S.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:05HOU +8% win prob(2:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to HOU 39 for -2 yards (33-A.Moore).
1st · 5:56HOU +7% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins [99-M.Judon]. Houston challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:46.)
1st · 11:44BAL +5% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 81-H.Hurst to HOU 27 for 12 yards (32-L.Johnson; 54-J.Martin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Roberts's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:24 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd9:24S.Roberts·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom L.Jacksonfrom L.JacksonLead never changed again+70–7
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Texans: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.60Texans: −0.60 expected points added per play
+0.66Ravens: +0.66 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Texans: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Ravens’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Ravens 7.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 25.6%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Ravens25.6%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 10.0 points below their season mean of 13.2% and 1.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%60 snaps
73Zach FultonG · Every snap100%60 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Max ScharpingT · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Nick MartinC · Every snap100%60 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Full-time98%59 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Full-time93%56 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Full-time93%56 snaps
16Keke CouteeWR · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
87Darren FellsTE · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation58%35 snaps
25Duke JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation58%35 snaps
23Carlos HydeRB · Rotational35%21 snaps
38Buddy HowellRB · Situational7%4 snaps
14DeAndre CarterWR · Situational7%4 snaps
2AJ McCarronQB · Situational7%4 snaps
63Roderick JohnsonOT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Vernon Hargreaves IIICBBradley RobyCBJoel HeathDETyrell AdamsLBChris ClarkOTWill FullerWRSteven MitchellWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Mike AdamsFS
Baltimore Ravens
46 dressed · 7 inactive
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%67 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time87%58 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Full-time87%58 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Full-time87%58 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation76%51 snaps
11Seth RobertsWR · Heavy rotation66%44 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation54%36 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Rotational48%32 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational42%28 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational39%26 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational37%25 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Rotational31%21 snaps
74James HurstG · Situational15%10 snaps
65Patrick MekariT · Situational13%9 snaps
3Robert Griffin IIIQB · Situational13%9 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational12%8 snaps
Inactive · 7
Iman MarshallDBMichael PierceDTZach SielerDTBen PowersGTrace McSorleyQBChris MooreWRJaleel ScottWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson sacked−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -10 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-45-J.Ferguson at HOU 41. 45-J.Ferguson to HOU 41 for no gain (74-M.Scharping).
Q1 12:36 · Texans · 1st & 10 at BAL 45 · lost 14 · -6.53 EP · −15.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 90 yards from the BAL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
723
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2471%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.1244%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.7553%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.9250%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.8738%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.0013%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1360%
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Ravens 45
Drive ended2 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 39
Drive ended2 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 27
No good3 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 25
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Ravens 32
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Texans 37
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Ravens 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Texans0Ravens6
Texans0Ravens7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Texans 15
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 47
Texans0Ravens13
Texans0Ravens14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Texans 11
No good15 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Texans0Ravens20
Texans0Ravens21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Texans 24
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
Texans0Ravens24
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Texans 16
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 45
Texans0Ravens27
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 37
4th quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Ravens 29
Texans0Ravens33
Texans0Ravens34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Texans 12
Texans6Ravens34
Texans7Ravens34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Ravens 41
Texans7Ravens40
Texans7Ravens41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 37
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Texanscategory by categoryRavens
Texans0
Ravens6
