2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars
13
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
33
Indianapolis Colts 33–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:43, IND +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 12:43IND +11% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).
- Q1 · 7:02IND +10% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 1:04IND +7% win prob(1:04) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-54-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.
- Q1 · 10:40JAX +7% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 7 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jaguars | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 61 |
| Total yards | 308 | 391 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 6.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.13 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Success rate | 36% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 85% | 48% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.11 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.24 | 0.38 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/14 (edge) | 4/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 21 | 7 | 32 | 3:33 | Punt | |
| 2 | IND | IND 7 | 4 | 0 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 40 | 6 | 60 | 3:02 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | IND | IND 24 | 13 | 81 | 6:18 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 10 | 2:58 | Punt | |
| 6 | IND | IND 30 | 9 | 54 | 4:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | IND 20 | 4 | 4 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 34 | 4 | 3 | 0:47 | Punt | |
| 10 | IND | IND 15 | 7 | 10 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 23 | 1 | 0 | 0:11 | Interception | |
| 12 | IND | IND 42 | 4 | 6 | 0:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 39 | 4 | 31 | 0:17 | End of half | |
| 14 | IND | IND 23 | 12 | 92 | 6:14 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 25 | 11 | 31 | 4:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | IND | IND 44 | 6 | 43 | 2:55 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 5 | 0:51 | Punt | |
| 18 | JAX | IND 29 | 4 | 1 | 0:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | IND | IND 36 | 5 | 64 | 2:10 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 36 | 3:34 | Punt | |
| 21 | IND | IND 12 | 7 | 37 | 4:40 | Interception | |
| 22 | JAX | JAX 10 | 12 | 90 | 3:29 | Touchdown | |
| 23 | IND | IND 11 | 3 | 0 | 0:59 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 92 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- IND -2.5
- Closing total
- 41.5
- JAX moneyline
- +121
- IND moneyline
- -134
Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 46 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- JAX 14 days · IND 7 days
- Coaches
- Doug Marrone vs Frank Reich
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.