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2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville13
BY 20final margin
ColtsIndianapolis33
Jacksonville Jaguars 13 at Indianapolis Colts 33. Final.
Colts -2.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Indianapolis Colts 33, Jaguars 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 12:43, 3rd and 19, on J.Williams — 10.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:43 · 3rd and 19
J.Williams
Colts
(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).
Dome
Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Indianapolis Colts 33–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:43, Colts +10.7% win probability on one snap.
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CharkJaguarsQ1 7:02(7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ2 1:04(1:04) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-54-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.
7.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jaguars158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).
Swing +10.7 for ColtsExpected points +3.83 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:43IND +11% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).
1st · 7:02IND +10% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:04IND +7% win prob(1:04) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-54-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.
1st · 10:40JAX +7% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 7 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen).
1st · 0:45IND +7% win prob(:45) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:31IND +7% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook to IND 39 for 15 yards (23-K.Moore II).
3rd · 8:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Vinatieri's 34-yard field goal with 8:30 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Colts ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.22Colts: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Jaguars: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.03Colts: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Jaguars: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.38Colts: +0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 59 snaps at a 85% dropback rate against Colts’s 61 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Colts 5.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate, 37.5%, is past their previous low of 41.1% in week 5 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 13.1 points below their season mean of 50.6% and 1.5 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pierre DesirCBQuincy WilsonCBLe'Raven ClarkOGChad KellyQBJordan WilkinsRBT.Y. HiltonWRParris CampbellWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass+11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 33-J.Williams to JAX 45 for 31 yards (94-D.Smoot).
Q3 12:43 · Colts · 3rd & 19 at IND 24 · gained 31 · +3.83 EP · +10.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 90 yards from the JAX 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
697
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0891%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0552%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.5343%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR19-0.06100%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.5429%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4220%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 43
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Colts 14
Jaguars6Colts0
Jaguars7Colts0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Colts 34
Jaguars7Colts6
Jaguars7Colts7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Jaguars 13
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 39
Jaguars7Colts10
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 16
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 24
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 37
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 32
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Jaguars 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Colts 48
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Jaguars7Colts16
Jaguars7Colts17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Jaguars 1
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 44
Jaguars7Colts23
Jaguars7Colts24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Jaguars 5
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
No good2 plays
Jaguars7Colts30
Jaguars7Colts31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Jaguars 7
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Intercepted7 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 49
Jaguars13Colts31
Jaguars13Colts33
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Colts 20
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
