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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Chiefs -5.5 ✓U 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs 24, Chargers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:01, 3rd and 8, on T.Mathieu — 12.4 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:01 · 3rd and 8
T.Mathieu
Chiefs
(9:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at LAC 41. 32-T.Mathieu to LAC 6 for 35 yards (78-T.Scott).
Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Kansas City Chiefs 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 9:01, Chiefs +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.BadgleyChargersQ2 0:01(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
10.1pts
D.SorensenChiefsQ4 0:24(:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC -3. Touchback.
10.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 2 giveaways, against Chargers at 4 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 5 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Chargers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Chiefs177 of 187 plays carry both curves
(9:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at LAC 41. 32-T.Mathieu to LAC 6 for 35 yards (78-T.Scott).
Swing −12.4 for ChargersExpected points −5.14 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 22 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:01KC +12% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at LAC 41. 32-T.Mathieu to LAC 6 for 35 yards (78-T.Scott).
4th · 0:24KC +10% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC -3. Touchback.
2nd · 0:01LAC +10% win prob(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
4th · 0:52LAC +9% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams pushed ob at KC 25 for 50 yards (27-R.Fenton).
2nd · 13:34KC +8% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 91-D.Nnadi (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark] at KC 31. 91-D.Nnadi to KC 31 for no gain (75-M.Schofield).
1st · 12:29LAC +7% win prob(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to KC 12 for 37 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.McCoy's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 8:50 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:34M.Badgley·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+30–3
2nd8:50L.McCoy·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
2nd5:03M.Badgley·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+37–6
2nd1:47H.Butker·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+310–6
2nd0:01M.Badgley·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+310–9
Chiefs ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Chiefs: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.02Chargers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Chargers’s 72 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers outgained Chiefs 440-311 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 32.0% in week 10 against 13.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Chargers13.5%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LAC's early-down pass rate, 69.6% against a season mean of 59.6% — and LAC swings 11.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%67 snaps
Ryan GroyGTyrod TaylorQBSpencer DrangoTLance KendricksTE
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at LAC 41. 32-T.Mathieu to LAC 6 for 35 yards (78-T.Scott).
Q2 9:01 · Chargers · 3rd & 8 at LAC 27 · gained nothing · -5.14 EP · −16.1% win probability
175 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 85 yards from the KC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
750
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1677%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2375%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.2747%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.2360%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Chiefs0Chargers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chiefs 9
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 39
No good7 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chiefs 22
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chiefs 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 40
2nd quarter52 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chiefs 25
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Chiefs 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 27
Chiefs6Chargers3
Chiefs7Chargers3
Touchdown2 plays
Chiefs7Chargers6
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 8
Chiefs10Chargers6
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 23
Chiefs10Chargers9
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 25
3rd quarter43 plays
Chiefs16Chargers9
Chiefs17Chargers9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 6
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 24
Chiefs23Chargers9
Chiefs24Chargers9
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to the Chargers 23
Chiefs24Chargers15
Chiefs24Chargers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 37
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 36
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 15
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 49
Intercepted3 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chargers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
