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2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
PatriotsNew England17
BY 7final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia10
New England Patriots 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 10. Final.
Patriots -4.5 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
New England Patriots 17, Eagles 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:34, 2nd and 6, on C.Wentz — 14.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:34 · 2nd and 6
C.Wentz
Patriots
(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 23 for -9 yards (71-D.Shelton). FUMBLES (71-D.Shelton) [71-D.Shelton], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at PHI 22. 93-L.Guy to PHI 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Patriots closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.
New England Patriots 17–10. Biggest swing: Q2 2:34, Patriots +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.WentzEaglesQ1 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 35-B.Scott. PENALTY on NE-30-J.McCourty, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at PHI 25 - No Play.
8.2pts
P.DorsettPatriotsQ3 10:55(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-M.Jenkins].
10.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 1 giveaway.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.05 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Patriots180 of 190 plays carry both curves
(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 23 for -9 yards (71-D.Shelton). FUMBLES (71-D.Shelton) [71-D.Shelton], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at PHI 22. 93-L.Guy to PHI 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Swing −14.7 for EaglesExpected points −5.08 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 19 points higher than the market did.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:34NE +15% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 23 for -9 yards (71-D.Shelton). FUMBLES (71-D.Shelton) [71-D.Shelton], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at PHI 22. 93-L.Guy to PHI 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
3rd · 10:55PHI +11% win prob(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-M.Jenkins].
1st · 15:00PHI +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 35-B.Scott. PENALTY on NE-30-J.McCourty, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at PHI 25 - No Play.
2nd · 12:40PHI +8% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Jones at NE -3. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:05NE +8% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 13-N.Agholor [54-D.Hightower]. PHI-13-N.Agholor was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:23NE +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Dorsett's 15-yard touchdown catch with 10:55 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:42J.Elliott·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+30–3
Patriots ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Patriots: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.31Eagles: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Patriots: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.08Eagles: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 71 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Eagles’s 65 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Eagles 1.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +10.5 pts, is past their previous high of +8.4 pts in week 9 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Eagles12.2%
right on their number · −4.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.5 pts, 10.6 points above their season mean of -0.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 23 for -9 yards (71-D.Shelton). FUMBLES (71-D.Shelton) [71-D.Shelton], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at PHI 22. 93-L.Guy to PHI 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Q2 2:34 · Eagles · 2nd & 6 at PHI 32 · lost 10 · -5.08 EP · −17.1% win probability
178 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 95 yards from the PHI 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
555
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0372%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38-0.2379%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.3465%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.28100%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.010%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Patriots0Eagles3
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Patriots 19
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 40
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 27
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 40
The period ended13 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Patriots 24
2nd quarter56 plays
Patriots0Eagles9
Patriots0Eagles10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 5
Patriots3Eagles10
Field goal15 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Eagles 17
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 26
Patriots6Eagles10
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 32
Patriots9Eagles10
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 20
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Patriots 44
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Patriots15Eagles10
Patriots17Eagles10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Eagles 14
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 32
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 26
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 38
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Eagles 45
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 3 to the Eagles 5
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Eagles 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 39
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 42
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 39
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 6 to the Patriots 26
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Patriotscategory by categoryEagles
Patriots0
Eagles3
