2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

NE -4.5 ✓U 45 ✓Patriots closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.

New England Patriots 17–10. Biggest swing: Q2 2:34, NE +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:34NE — PHI PHI ball · 2nd & 6NE 53%

(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 23 for -9 yards (71-D.Shelton). FUMBLES (71-D.Shelton) [71-D.Shelton], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at PHI 22. 93-L.Guy to PHI 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:34NE +15% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 23 for -9 yards (71-D.Shelton). FUMBLES (71-D.Shelton) [71-D.Shelton], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at PHI 22. 93-L.Guy to PHI 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Q3 · 10:55PHI +11% win prob(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-M.Jenkins].
Q1 · 15:00PHI +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 35-B.Scott. PENALTY on NE-30-J.McCourty, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at PHI 25 - No Play.
Q2 · 12:40PHI +8% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Jones at NE -3. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Eagles
Offensive plays	71	65
Total yards	301 (edge)	255
Yards per play	4.2 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	35%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	5/16 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	5	7	1:22	Turnover on downs
2	NE	NE 25	6	15	1:30	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 21	4	6	1:51	Punt
4	NE	NE 26	6	14	3:08	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 5	17	90	9:33	Touchdown
6	NE	NE 24	14	48	3:59	Turnover on downs
7	PHI	PHI 22	5	-7	1:56	Punt
8	NE	PHI 48	11	44	3:20	Turnover on downs
9	PHI	PHI 28	3	-6	0:55	Fumble
10	NE	PHI 22	4	1	0:42	Turnover on downs
11	PHI	PHI 25	7	21	1:42	Punt
12	NE	NE 17	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	NE	NE 16	12	86	4:11	Touchdown
14	PHI	PHI 26	5	6	1:32	Punt
15	NE	NE 21	4	5	0:59	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 19	6	5	3:15	Punt
17	NE	NE 48	4	7	1:48	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 3	4	3	1:40	Punt
19	NE	NE 48	5	5	1:30	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 20	6	19	2:20	Punt
21	NE	NE 20	8	31	2:41	Punt
22	PHI	PHI 12	5	27	1:46	Punt
23	NE	NE 2	7	37	4:11	Punt
24	PHI	PHI 6	11	63	3:09	Turnover on downs
25	NE	NE 26	4	8	0:24	Punt
26	PHI	PHI 12	3	21	0:34	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 90 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -4.5
Closing total: 45
NE moneyline: -210
PHI moneyline: +186

Patriots closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 45; the game landed 27 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: NE 14 days · PHI 14 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Doug Pederson