2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
New Orleans SaintsWinner
34
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17
New Orleans Saints 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:10, NO +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 0:10NO +7% win prob(:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
- Q1 · 12:19TB +6% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 30 for 30 yards (39-A.Adams).
- Q3 · 1:31TB +4% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 14:52TB +4% win prob(14:52) 28-L.Murray right guard to NO 26 for 12 yards (39-A.Adams).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 61 |
| Total yards | 330 | 334 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 | 5.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.19 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 39% |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 89% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.10 (edge) | -0.48 |
| Third downs | 7/13 (edge) | 5/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 4 |
Buccaneers outgained Saints 334–330 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 14 | 11 | 50 | 6:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 3 | NO | NO 24 | 12 | 78 | 7:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | TB | TB 16 | 3 | 0 | 0:47 | Interception | |
| 5 | NO | TB 16 | 2 | 16 | 0:03 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 5 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 7 | NO | NO 49 | 14 | 51 | 6:42 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | TB | TB 25 | 9 | 80 | 2:31 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 10 | TB | TB 43 | 8 | 19 | 1:38 | Interception | |
| 11 | TB | TB 25 | 11 | 37 | 3:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | NO | NO 25 | 12 | 85 | 5:41 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 75 | 4:05 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | NO | NO 25 | 6 | 8 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 15 | TB | TB 15 | 6 | 36 | 2:59 | Punt | |
| 16 | NO | NO 33 | 9 | 34 | 5:55 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | TB 11 | 5 | 22 | 0:45 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 18 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 54 | 2:24 | Interception | |
| 19 | NO | NO 20 | 5 | 6 | 2:43 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -5
- Closing total
- 50.5
- NO moneyline
- -230
- TB moneyline
- +202
Saints closed -5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 55°F, wind 4 mph
- Referee
- Bradley Rogers
- Rest
- NO 7 days · TB 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean Payton vs Bruce Arians
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.