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2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans34
BY 17final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay17
New Orleans Saints 34 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17. Final.
Saints -5 ✓O 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
New Orleans Saints 34, Buccaneers 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 0:10, 2nd and 10, on D.Davis — 6.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:10 · 2nd and 10
D.Davis
Saints
(:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
Saints closed -5 and covered, winning by 17.
New Orleans Saints 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:10, Saints +6.7% win probability on one snap.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.CookSaintsQ1 12:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 30 for 30 yards (39-A.Adams).
5.6pts
C.GodwinBuccaneersQ3 1:31(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Saints166 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
Swing −6.7 for BuccaneersExpected points −4.81 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 19 points higher than the market did.play 35
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:10NO +7% win prob(:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
1st · 12:19TB +6% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to TB 30 for 30 yards (39-A.Adams).
3rd · 1:31TB +4% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:52TB +4% win prob(14:52) 28-L.Murray right guard to NO 26 for 12 yards (39-A.Adams).
4th · 5:19NO +3% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 45. 43-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:59NO +3% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at TB 37 for -9 yards (34-M.Edwards).
1st · 9:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Lutz's 44-yard field goal with 8:49 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:49W.Lutz·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+33–0
1st0:54W.Lutz·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+36–0
Saints ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Saints: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.19Buccaneers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Saints: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.15Buccaneers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.48Buccaneers: −0.48 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 61 at 89%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Buccaneers 3.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Saints 334-330 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +17.8 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +7.9 pts in week 6.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's early-down pass rate, 87.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 8.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 81.0% in week 6.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.3% in week 10 against 56.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 17.8 pts, 15.5 points above their season mean of 2.3 pts and 2.6 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis (43-M.Williams) at TB 17. 56-D.Davis to TB 16 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
Q1 0:10 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 10 at TB 16 · gained nothing · -4.81 EP · −14.5% win probability
164 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
41%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1283%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1373%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+1.1286%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2217%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0583%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Saints3Buccaneers0
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Saints6Buccaneers0
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Buccaneers 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Saints12Buccaneers0
Saints13Buccaneers0
Touchdown2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 49
Saints19Buccaneers0
Saints20Buccaneers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Buccaneers 3
Saints20Buccaneers6
Saints20Buccaneers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 1
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 27
Intercepted12 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Saints 36
3rd quarter42 plays
Saints20Buccaneers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 32
Saints26Buccaneers10
Saints27Buccaneers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 6
Saints27Buccaneers16
Saints27Buccaneers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 40
4th quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Saints 49
Punt12 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Buccaneers 37
Saints33Buccaneers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 33
Saints34Buccaneers17
Intercepted11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
