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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 34 at Washington Commanders 17. Final.
Commanders -1 upsetO 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
New York Jets 34, Commanders 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 9:05 — 9.9 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:05
Unnamed on the sheet
Commanders
3-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to NYJ 0. 17-V.Smith to NYJ 27 for 27 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-34-W.Smallwood at NYJ 27.
Commanders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:05, Commanders +9.9% win probability on one snap.
9.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BosticCommandersQ2 10:41(10:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-T.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic at NYJ 42. 53-J.Bostic pushed ob at NYJ 16 for 26 yards (17-V.Smith).
8.9pts
D.HopkinsJetsQ2 6:41(6:41) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
7.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.27 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Jets172 of 181 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 9:05Jets 13 — Commanders 3NYJ ballNYJ 76%
Jets 76%Commanders 24%
3-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to NYJ 0. 17-V.Smith to NYJ 27 for 27 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-34-W.Smallwood at NYJ 27.
Swing +9.9 for CommandersExpected points +5.17 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:05NYJ +10% win prob3-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to NYJ 0. 17-V.Smith to NYJ 27 for 27 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-34-W.Smallwood at NYJ 27.
2nd · 10:41NYJ +9% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-T.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic at NYJ 42. 53-J.Bostic pushed ob at NYJ 16 for 26 yards (17-V.Smith).
2nd · 6:41NYJ +7% win prob(6:41) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
2nd · 14:47WAS +6% win prob(14:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. PENALTY on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Roughing the Kicker, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 12 - No Play.
2nd · 1:03WAS +6% win prob(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 84-R.Griffin to WAS 16 for 45 yards (31-F.Moreau).
1st · 3:12WAS +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Brown's 20-yard touchdown catch with 11:58 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:58D.Brown·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom S.Darnoldfrom S.Darnold · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–0
Jets ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Jets: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.28Commanders: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Jets: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.27Commanders: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Jets: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Commanders’s 63 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Jets 5, Commanders 4.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 45.1%, is past their previous low of 47.8% in week 10 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Commanders12.1%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.1%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 55.7% and 1.1 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Alex LewisG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Tom ComptonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Every snap100%70 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%70 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Full-time84%59 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time83%58 snaps
18Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
75Chuma EdogaT · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
72Brandon ShellT · Rotational47%33 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Rotational37%26 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational21%15 snaps
29Bilal PowellRB · Situational21%15 snaps
36Josh AdamsRB · Situational10%7 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Leo KoloamatangiCNate HairstonCBDarryl RobertsCBJordan WillisDEC.J. MosleyILBPaul WorrilowOLBMatthias FarleySS
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
David FalesQB
Washington Commanders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%65 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%65 snaps
7Dwayne HaskinsQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
13Kelvin HarmonWR · Full-time92%60 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time91%59 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
72Donald PennT · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
18Trey QuinnWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
34Wendell SmallwoodRB · Rotational43%28 snaps
74Geron ChristianT · Rotational34%22 snaps
29Derrius GuiceRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
88Hale HentgesTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
26Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational20%13 snaps
66Tony BergstromG · Situational17%11 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Situational14%9 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCTim SettleNTColt McCoyQBChris ThompsonRBDeshazor EverettSSVernon DavisTEPaul RichardsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Case KeenumQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hopkins kicks−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
3-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to NYJ 0. 17-V.Smith to NYJ 27 for 27 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-34-W.Smallwood at NYJ 27.
Q2 9:05 · Jets · Kickoff at WAS 35 · gained nothing · -5.17 EP · −14.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 82 yards from the NYJ 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
37%
Yards
627
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.2988%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.5370%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2421%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3022%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.9567%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.4360%
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Jets6Commanders0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Commanders 20
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 41
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Commanders 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Commanders 7
2nd quarter57 plays
Jets12Commanders0
Jets13Commanders0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 6
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 47
Jets13Commanders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 11
Fumble lost1 play
No good6 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 11
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 45
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Jets19Commanders3
Jets20Commanders3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Commanders 16
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 49
3rd quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Jets 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Commanders 43
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 31
The period ended8 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Commanders 45
4th quarter52 plays
Jets26Commanders3
Jets27Commanders3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 29
Intercepted2 plays
Jets33Commanders3
Jets34Commanders3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Commanders 1
Jets34Commanders9
Jets34Commanders11
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Jets 45
No good11 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Commanders 31
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 3 to the Jets 6
Jets34Commanders17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Jets 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
