2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · FedExField

New York JetsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -1 upsetO 37.5 ✓Commanders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:05, NYJ +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:05NYJ — WAS NYJ ballNYJ 76%

3-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to NYJ 0. 17-V.Smith to NYJ 27 for 27 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-34-W.Smallwood at NYJ 27.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:05NYJ +10% win prob3-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to NYJ 0. 17-V.Smith to NYJ 27 for 27 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-34-W.Smallwood at NYJ 27.
Q2 · 10:41NYJ +9% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-T.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic at NYJ 42. 53-J.Bostic pushed ob at NYJ 16 for 26 yards (17-V.Smith).
Q2 · 6:41NYJ +7% win prob(6:41) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q2 · 14:47WAS +6% win prob(14:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. PENALTY on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Roughing the Kicker, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 12 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Commanders
Offensive plays	64	63
Total yards	403 (edge)	227
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	47% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	52%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	6/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	70	3:10	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 27	7	13	2:40	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	25	2:46	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 14	4	0	1:59	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 38	13	56	5:24	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 21	5	6	2:17	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 45	2	2	1:13	Interception
8	WAS	NYJ 16	4	-10	1:26	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	—	1	0	0:08	Fumble
10	WAS	NYJ 27	6	16	2:20	Turnover on downs
11	NYJ	NYJ 20	9	27	4:18	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 25	4	14	1:00	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 18	4	82	0:43	Touchdown
14	WAS	WAS 30	4	21	0:36	End of half
15	WAS	WAS 19	14	40	7:31	Turnover on downs
16	NYJ	NYJ 31	5	26	1:44	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 20	7	2	3:01	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 40	11	55	4:33	Touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 11	2	0	0:14	Interception
20	NYJ	WAS 5	3	5	0:42	Touchdown
21	WAS	WAS 31	8	71	2:16	Touchdown
22	NYJ	NYJ 27	10	52	5:28	Turnover on downs
23	WAS	WAS 39	4	0	0:26	Punt
24	NYJ	NYJ 3	4	3	0:59	Punt
25	WAS	NYJ 49	8	54	1:55	Touchdown
26	NYJ	WAS 44	3	0	1:11	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 82 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1
Closing total: 37.5
NYJ moneyline: +111
WAS moneyline: -122

Commanders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 51 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NYJ 7 days · WAS 14 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Bill Callahan