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Pittsburgh Steelers 7 at Cleveland Browns 21. Final.
Browns -3 ✓U 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 11
Cleveland Browns 21, Steelers 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:32, 1st and 10, on J.Schobert — 9.0 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:32 · 1st and 10
J.Schobert
Browns
(6:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle intended for 13-J.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at PIT 24. 53-J.Schobert to PIT 4 for 20 yards (2-M.Rudolph).
Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Cleveland Browns 21–7. Biggest swing: Q4 6:32, Browns +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
O.BeckhamBrownsQ1 11:34(11:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to PIT 1 for 42 yards (22-S.Nelson).
8.7pts
M.RudolphSteelersQ1 9:24(9:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Washington. PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at PIT 34 - No Play. Penalty on CLE-26-G.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
6.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 4 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.52 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 6 of 16 on third down, against Steelers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Steelers173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(6:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle intended for 13-J.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at PIT 24. 53-J.Schobert to PIT 4 for 20 yards (2-M.Rudolph).
Swing +9.0 for BrownsExpected points +5.64 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:32PIT +9% win prob(6:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle intended for 13-J.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at PIT 24. 53-J.Schobert to PIT 4 for 20 yards (2-M.Rudolph).
1st · 11:34CLE +9% win prob(11:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to PIT 1 for 42 yards (22-S.Nelson).
1st · 9:24CLE +7% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Washington. PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at PIT 34 - No Play. Penalty on CLE-26-G.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
4th · 13:29PIT +6% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Holton (92-C.Thomas) [53-J.Schobert].
3rd · 0:01PIT +6% win prob(:01) 4-A.Seibert 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
1st · 7:52PIT +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.Mayfield's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:13 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:13B.Mayfield·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Browns ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.52Steelers: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.11Browns: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.58Steelers: −0.58 expected points added per play
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Steelers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.24Browns: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 64 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Browns’s 67 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 1, Browns 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.52.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.9 pts in week 10 against −7.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 10 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns22.4%
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.2%, 15.8 points below their season mean of 55.0% and 2.0 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Robert JacksonCBOlivier VernonDEBryan CoxDEEric MurrayFSKendall LammTTaywan TaylorWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to PIT 1 for 42 yards (22-S.Nelson).
Q1 11:34 · Browns · 1st & 10 at PIT 43 · gained 42 · +3.18 EP · +9.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 77 yards from the CLE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
37%
Yards
529
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.5980%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.4522%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.2181%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR11+0.6855%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2163%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3543%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays
Steelers0Browns6
Steelers0Browns7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Steelers 1
No good10 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Browns 26
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Steelers 43
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays
Steelers0Browns13
Steelers0Browns14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Steelers 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 45
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Steelers 48
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 41
No good4 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 27
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Browns 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Browns 11
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 41
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Steelers 45
Steelers6Browns14
Steelers7Browns14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Browns 3
No good15 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Steelers 31
4th quarter53 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Browns 32
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 40
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Steelers 20
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Steelers 47
Intercepted1 play
Steelers7Browns20
Steelers7Browns21
Touchdown4 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 42
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Steelers 31
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -3
Closing total
41.5
Steelers moneyline
+146
Browns moneyline
-163
Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 28 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Steelers 4 days · Browns 4 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Freddie Kitchens
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
2nd · 13:19CLE +5% win prob(13:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 12-K.Hodge to PIT 18 for 59 yards (28-M.Hilton). Pittsburgh challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 12-K.Hodge to PIT 36 for 41 yards (28-M.Hilton).
2nd · 14:04CLE +5% win prob(14:04) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.
