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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Ravens161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(7:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.3 for RamsExpected points −2.63 for RamsThe model had Rams 12 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:51LA +8% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:15LA +5% win prob(12:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end pushed ob at LA 25 for 16 yards (24-T.Rapp).
1st · 13:50BAL +4% win prob(13:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-C.Kupp [54-T.Bowser].
1st · 1:37LA +4% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:45LA +3% win prob(13:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-D.Thomas pushed ob at BAL 45 for 20 yards (41-K.Young).
1st · 7:23BAL +3% win prob(7:23) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 22 for -8 yards (22-J.Smith).
1st · 3:23
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marquise Brown's 6-yard touchdown catch with 7:51 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th6:41Justin Tucker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+345–6
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryRams
Ravens8–1Rams
483Total yards222
6.8Yards per play4.7
55%Success rate36%
64%Third-down rate22%
6Red-zone touchdowns0
14Explosive plays4
30First downs10
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.50Ravens: +0.50 expected points added per play
−0.22Rams: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.81Ravens: +0.81 expected points added per play
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.12Rams: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 71 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Rams’s 47 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 7, Rams 1.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 81.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 11.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 29.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 32.8% in week 1.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, +11.4 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 11.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −17.6 pts, is past their previous low of −10.9 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 11.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Rams25.0%
leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.1%, 22.8 points above their season mean of 58.3% and 1.6 times their own 14.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:51 · Ravens · 3rd & 4 at LA 6 · gained 6 · +2.63 EP · +6.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 78 yards from the BAL 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
42%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2283%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.4939%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.2829%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.130%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3980%
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
Ravens6Rams0
Ravens7Rams0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Rams 6
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Ravens13Rams0
Ravens14Rams0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Rams 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 36
2nd quarter49 plays
Ravens14Rams3
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Ravens 7
Ravens20Rams3
Ravens21Rams3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 1
Ravens21Rams6
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Ravens 17
Ravens27Rams6
Ravens28Rams6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Ravens34Rams6
Ravens35Rams6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 7
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
The period ended19 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Rams 12
4th quarter48 plays
Ravens41Rams6
Ravens42Rams6
Touchdown4 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Ravens 30
Ravens45Rams6
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Rams 12
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Ravens 42
Intercepted8 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Ravens 22
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ravenscategory by categoryRams
Ravens6
Rams0
