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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 31 at New Orleans Saints 34. Final.
Saints -10 no coverO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
New Orleans Saints 34, Panthers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 10, on J.Slye — 28.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 10
J.Slye
Saints
(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
28.5
Dome
Saints closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Saints +28.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.MoorePanthersQ4 9:28(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 2, YAC 0
19.1pts
M.ThomasSaintsQ4 0:37(:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas ran ob at CAR 40 for 24 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Pass 22, YAC 2
20.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 6 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Saints at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Panthers175 of 187 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Swing +28.5 for SaintsExpected points +3.88 for SaintsThe model had Panthers 8 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00CAR +29% win prob(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
4th · 0:37NO +20% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas ran ob at CAR 40 for 24 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Pass 22, YAC 2
4th · 9:28NO +19% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 2, YAC 0
4th · 6:47CAR +17% win prob(6:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (25-E.Reid). Penalty on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:43CAR +15% win prob(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 36 for -4 yards (23-J.Elliott). Pass -5, YAC 4
4th · 2:26NO +12% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright. Carolina challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on NO-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Lutz's 33-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03W.Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+331–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Panthers1–6Saints
351Total yards418
5.0Yards per play7.2
49%Success rate50%
38%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
22First downs22
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.12Saints: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Panthers: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.22Saints: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Panthers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.10Saints: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 70 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Saints’s 58 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Saints 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 11 against 10.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.5% in week 11 against 50.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints14.3%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.0%, 7.8 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 1.3 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%74 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%74 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap99%73 snaps
88Greg OlsenTE · Full-time92%68 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time84%62 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time82%61 snaps
74Greg LittleT · Heavy rotation73%54 snaps
60Daryl WilliamsT · Heavy rotation70%52 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational47%35 snaps
65Dennis DaleyT · Rotational30%22 snaps
73Greg Van RotenG · Rotational30%22 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational18%13 snaps
19Donte MoncriefWR · Situational18%13 snaps
69Tyler LarsenC · Situational4%3 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ross CockrellCBCorn ElderCBMarquis HaynesDEWes HortonDEJordan KunaszykLBMike DavisRBBrandon ZylstraWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Slye−29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 2:00 · Panthers · 4th & goal at NO 10 · gained nothing · -3.88 EP · −29.3% win probability
173 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
769
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2573%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1680%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1645%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.6625%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.57100%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.2917%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.7 seconds
Panthers0Saints6
Panthers0Saints7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 29
Panthers0Saints13
Panthers0Saints14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 13
Panthers6Saints14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 31
2nd quarter46 plays
Panthers6Saints17
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 18
Panthers9Saints17
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 23
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEleven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Panthers15Saints17
Touchdown23 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Saints 1
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Panthers15Saints23
Panthers15Saints24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Panthers 20
Panthers18Saints24
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 34
Panthers18Saints30
Panthers18Saints31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 3
Panthers24Saints31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Saints 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
4th quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 46
Punt4 plays
Intercepted4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Panthers30Saints31
Panthers31Saints31
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Saints 1
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 45
No good14 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Saints 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Panthers31Saints34
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Panthers 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
