2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Carolina Panthers
31
New Orleans SaintsWinner
34
New Orleans Saints 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, CAR +29% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 2:00CAR +29% win prob(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
- Q4 · 0:37NO +20% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas ran ob at CAR 40 for 24 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Pass 22, YAC 2
- Q4 · 9:28NO +19% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 2, YAC 0
- Q4 · 6:47CAR +17% win prob(6:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (25-E.Reid). Penalty on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Panthers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 70 | 58 |
| Total yards | 351 | 418 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 7.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.13 (edge) | 0.12 |
| Success rate | 49% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 69% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.31 (edge) | 0.22 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/13 | 4/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 | 22 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 25 | 9 | 75 | 4:21 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 3 | NO | NO 23 | 4 | 14 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 4 | NO | CAR 27 | 5 | 27 | 1:30 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | CAR | CAR 25 | 6 | 75 | 2:04 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | NO | NO 25 | 10 | 52 | 4:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | CAR | CAR 25 | 11 | 47 | 5:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 32 | 18 | 53 | 6:30 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 11 | NO | NO 38 | 6 | 47 | 2:40 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | CAR | CAR 25 | 9 | 36 | 2:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | NO | NO 25 | 8 | 75 | 3:27 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | CAR | CAR 29 | 9 | 71 | 3:41 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | NO | NO 25 | 6 | 21 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 20 | 4 | 0 | 0:42 | Punt | |
| 17 | NO | NO 34 | 3 | 0 | 1:02 | Interception | |
| 18 | CAR | 50 | 7 | 21 | 3:03 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | NO | NO 25 | 7 | 33 | 2:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | CAR | NO 43 | 11 | 36 | 4:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | NO | NO 20 | 11 | 65 | 1:56 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -10
- Closing total
- 46
- CAR moneyline
- +374
- NO moneyline
- -457
Saints closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 65 — over by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome
- Roof / surface
- dome · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Alex Kemp
- Rest
- CAR 7 days · NO 7 days
- Coaches
- Ron Rivera vs Sean Payton
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.