2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · Gillette Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -5.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓16 mph windPatriots closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 13–9. Biggest swing: Q4 8:53, NE +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:53DAL — NE DAL ball · 2nd & 5NE 89%

(8:53) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to NE 37 for 47 yards (32-D.McCourty) [52-E.Roberts]. FUMBLES (32-D.McCourty), and recovers at NE 30. 18-R.Cobb to NE 25 for 5 yards (32-D.McCourty). Penalty on NE-27-J.Jac

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:53NE +10% win prob(8:53) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to NE 37 for 47 yards (32-D.McCourty) [52-E.Roberts]. FUMBLES (32-D.McCourty), and recovers at NE 30. 18-R.Cobb to NE 25 for 5 yards (32-D.McCourty). Penalty on NE-27-J.Jackson, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q4 · 1:50DAL +8% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 45 for 20 yards (27-J.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-A.Cooper.
Q1 · 7:44DAL +8% win prob(7:44) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 · 7:48NE +7% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to NE 14 for 12 yards (54-D.Hightower).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Patriots
Offensive plays	59	64
Total yards	321 (edge)	285
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	-0.13 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	41% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	58%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	2/13	3/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Cowboys outgained Patriots 321–285 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	9	1:23	Punt
2	NE	NE 22	7	27	2:25	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 19	7	42	3:33	Turnover on downs
4	NE	NE 36	5	19	2:40	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 20	6	20	3:31	Punt
6	NE	DAL 12	3	12	0:43	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 18	4	8	1:28	Interception
8	NE	DAL 29	4	3	1:31	Turnover on downs
9	DAL	DAL 30	10	42	4:10	Turnover on downs
10	NE	NE 25	8	52	1:50	Turnover on downs
11	DAL	DAL 36	9	40	4:18	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 25	10	45	2:28	Turnover on downs
13	NE	NE 36	5	11	1:51	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 20	4	3	1:00	Punt
15	NE	NE 28	8	24	3:28	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 28	4	9	2:22	Punt
17	NE	NE 28	4	7	1:31	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 20	8	30	4:14	Punt
19	NE	NE 38	12	38	6:02	Turnover on downs
20	DAL	DAL 11	9	78	3:28	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 25	9	34	3:26	Punt
22	DAL	DAL 8	5	27	0:54	Turnover on downs
23	NE	DAL 25	6	13	1:43	Turnover on downs
24	DAL	DAL 15	1	13	0:01	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -5.5
Closing total: 44.5
DAL moneyline: +203
NE moneyline: -231

Patriots closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 22 — under by 22.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: DAL 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Bill Belichick

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.