2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · New Era Field
Denver Broncos
3
Buffalo BillsWinner
20
Buffalo Bills 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:39, BUF +6% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 35 for 3 yards (39-L.Wallace). Slant pass, caught at DEN 35.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 13:39BUF +6% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 35 for 3 yards (39-L.Wallace). Slant pass, caught at DEN 35.
- Q2 · 1:07DEN +6% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 8. 27-T.White to BUF 15 for 7 yards (60-C.McGovern).
- Q1 · 12:17BUF +6% win prob(12:17) 2-B.Allen pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 35 for 27 yards (27-T.White). Caught at BUF 41, crossing from left.
- Q3 · 13:02BUF +6% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-C.Beasley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-A.Johnson]. Caught at DEN 7, slanting slightlly from right.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 46 | 71 |
| Total yards | 134 | 425 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 2.9 | 6.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.33 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Success rate | 33% | 46% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 39% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.52 | 0.29 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.06 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Third downs | 2/11 | 8/16 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 12 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 7 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 46 | 5:01 | Punt | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 10 | 17 | 69 | 8:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 25 | 6 | 15 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 8 | 12 | 97 | 5:50 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 31 | 6 | -5 | 3:09 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 8 | 3 | 16 | 0:57 | Interception | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 47 | 6 | 38 | 3:06 | Interception | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 15 | 5 | 40 | 0:57 | End of half | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 41 | 10 | 59 | 2:03 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 25 | 11 | 38 | 5:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 27 | 8 | 35 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 13 | 4 | 7 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 42 | 4 | 8 | 1:26 | Punt | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 18 | 4 | -3 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 45 | 7 | 29 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 11 | 4 | -9 | 1:09 | Punt | |
| 17 | BUF | DEN 31 | 3 | 31 | 0:46 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 28 | 5 | 7 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 19 | BUF | DEN 48 | 4 | 7 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 20 | DEN | DEN 10 | 4 | 0 | 0:51 | Punt | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 39 | 10 | 34 | 7:02 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 97 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -3.5
- Closing total
- 37
- DEN moneyline
- +170
- BUF moneyline
- -190
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 37; the game landed 23 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- 40°F, wind 17 mph
- Referee
- Jerome Boger
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · BUF 7 days
- Coaches
- Vic Fangio vs Sean McDermott
Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.