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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 20, Broncos 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:39, 3rd and 3, on T.Patrick — 6.2 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:39 · 3rd and 3
T.Patrick
Broncos
(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 35 for 3 yards (39-L.Wallace). Slant pass, caught at DEN 35.
17.6 mph wind
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Buffalo Bills 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:39, Broncos +6.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
6.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.SuttonBroncosQ1 12:17(12:17) 2-B.Allen pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 35 for 27 yards (27-T.White). Caught at BUF 41, crossing from left.
6.1pts
T.WhiteBillsQ2 1:07(1:07) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 8. 27-T.White to BUF 15 for 7 yards (60-C.McGovern).
6.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Broncos at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.52 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Broncos156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 35 for 3 yards (39-L.Wallace). Slant pass, caught at DEN 35.
Swing −6.2 for BillsExpected points −0.99 for BillsThe model had Broncos 6 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:39BUF +6% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 35 for 3 yards (39-L.Wallace). Slant pass, caught at DEN 35.
2nd · 1:07DEN +6% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 8. 27-T.White to BUF 15 for 7 yards (60-C.McGovern).
1st · 12:17BUF +6% win prob(12:17) 2-B.Allen pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 35 for 27 yards (27-T.White). Caught at BUF 41, crossing from left.
3rd · 13:02BUF +6% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-C.Beasley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-A.Johnson]. Caught at DEN 7, slanting slightlly from right.
1st · 10:51DEN +6% win prob(10:51) 2-B.Allen pass short right to 28-R.Freeman to BUF 29 for no gain (24-T.Johnson). PENALTY on DEN-66-D.Risner, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 29 - No Play.
3rd · 7:45BUF +6% win prob(7:45) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Hauschka's 39-yard field goal with 1:15 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:15S.Hauschka·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+30–3
2nd8:12S.Hauschka·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+30–6
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Broncos: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.09Bills: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.52Broncos: −0.52 expected points added per play
+0.29Bills: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Bills: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 46 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 71 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 0, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 30.9%, is past their previous low of 34.1% in week 9 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, is past their previous low of −10.5 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bills19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 30.9%, 23.8 points below their season mean of 54.7% and 1.9 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%49 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%49 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%49 snaps
2Brandon AllenQB · Every snap100%49 snaps
65Ronald LearyG · Every snap100%49 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%49 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Every snap100%49 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation73%36 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation65%32 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Heavy rotation65%32 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Heavy rotation55%27 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Heavy rotation55%27 snaps
82Jeff HeuermanTE · Rotational33%16 snaps
84Troy FumagalliTE · Situational20%10 snaps
83Andrew BeckTE · Situational16%8 snaps
11Diontae SpencerWR · Situational10%5 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Cyrus JonesCBDeMarcus WalkerDEJonathan HarrisDEJustin HollinsLBJa'Wuan JamesOTCalvin AndersonTJuwann WinfreeWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Allen pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:17) 2-B.Allen pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 35 for 27 yards (27-T.White). Caught at BUF 41, crossing from left.
Q1 12:17 · Broncos · 2nd & 7 at DEN 38 · gained 27 · +2.32 EP · +8.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 87 yards from the BUF 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
39%
Yards
558
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.1342%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.8981%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4844%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.020%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.2050%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.4667%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bills 29
Broncos0Bills3
Field goal17 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Broncos 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Broncos0Bills6
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Broncos 5
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 49
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 24
Intercepted7 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Bills 25
The period ended12 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 46
3rd quarter49 plays
Broncos0Bills12
Broncos0Bills13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Broncos 18
Broncos3Bills13
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bills 22
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Broncos 43
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 20
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 42 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Broncos 47
4th quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 36
Punt4 plays
Broncos3Bills19
Broncos3Bills20
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 35
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Broncos 22
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -3.5
Closing total
37
Broncos moneyline
+170
Bills moneyline
-190
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 37; the game landed 23 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Sean McDermott
NoteWind at 17.6 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
2nd · 4:13DEN +6% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at BUF 46. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at BUF 32 for 14 yards (67-Q.Spain). Return credited to BUF 38 (spot of foul). PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 38.
3rd · 14:17BUF +5% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 16-R.Foster pushed ob at DEN 36 for 24 yards (31-J.Simmons). BUF-16-R.Foster was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Caught at BUF 41, crossing from middle. R.Foster assisted off.
