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Detroit Lions 16 at Washington Commanders 19. Final.
Lions -4 upsetU 39 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
Washington Commanders 19, Lions 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:54, 3rd and 9, on Q.Dunbar — 27.6 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:54 · 3rd and 9
Q.Dunbar
Commanders
(:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).
Lions closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:54, Commanders +27.6% win probability on one snap.
27.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ2 13:095-M.Prater kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to WAS 6. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 9. 15-S.Sims for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.7pts
A.OruwariyeLionsQ4 10:22(10:22) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left intended for 13-K.Harmon INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 35. 24-A.Oruwariye to DET 35 for no gain (13-K.Harmon).
12.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — 2 giveaways, against Lions at 4 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 14 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Lions168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).
Swing +27.6 for CommandersExpected points +2.15 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:54DET +28% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).
2nd · 13:09WAS +18% win prob5-M.Prater kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to WAS 6. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 9. 15-S.Sims for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:22DET +13% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left intended for 13-K.Harmon INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 35. 24-A.Oruwariye to DET 35 for no gain (13-K.Harmon).
4th · 1:58DET +12% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.McLaurin.
1st · 13:29DET +11% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at WAS 38 for -8 yards (42-D.Kennard). FUMBLES (42-D.Kennard), RECOVERED by DET-32-T.Wilson at DET 48. 32-T.Wilson to WAS 38 for 14 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).
1st · 9:57DET +11% win prob(9:57) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Hopkins's 39-yard field goal with 0:20 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:34D.Hopkins·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+30–3
2nd13:12M.Prater·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+33–3
2nd13:09S.Sims·91-yd return TD91-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+73–10
2nd5:48D.Hopkins·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–13
2nd0:19M.Prater·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+36–13
4th12:03M.Prater·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+316–13
4th1:54D.Hopkins·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+316–16
4th0:20D.Hopkins·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.SundbergLead never changed again+316–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCommanders
Lions7–2Commanders
364Total yards232
5.1Yards per play4.2
39%Success rate35%
40%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays6
19First downs12
6Sacks taken3
4Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Lions: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.25Commanders: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Lions: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.29Commanders: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Lions: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 71 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Commanders’s 55 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Commanders 3.
NoteLions outgained Commanders 364-232 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 30.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 17.0% in week 5.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 11.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders30.2%
off script — got home · +15.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.68× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.2%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 2.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
60Graham GlasgowC · Every snap100%74 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%74 snaps
—Ricky WagnerT · Every snap100%74 snaps
2Jeff DriskelQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
66Joe DahlG · Every snap99%73 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Full-time92%68 snaps
79Kenny WigginsG · Full-time91%67 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time91%67 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Heavy rotation62%46 snaps
43Bo ScarbroughRB · Heavy rotation50%37 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational45%33 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Rotational43%32 snaps
31Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational36%27 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Rotational36%27 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Situational15%11 snaps
89Isaac NautaTE · Situational12%9 snaps
17Marvin HallWR · Situational12%9 snaps
76Oday AboushiOG · Situational11%8 snaps
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Frank RagnowCJamal AgnewCBRashaan MelvinCBTracy WalkerDBTrey FlowersDEDa'Shawn HandDLMatthew StaffordQB
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Beau BenzschawelGDavid BloughQBRick WagnerT
Washington Commanders
46 dressed · 7 inactive
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%58 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%58 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time98%57 snaps
7Dwayne HaskinsQB · Full-time98%57 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Full-time84%49 snaps
72Donald PennT · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
13Kelvin HarmonWR · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
29Derrius GuiceRB · Rotational41%24 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Rotational40%23 snaps
18Trey QuinnWR · Rotational38%22 snaps
26Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational34%20 snaps
34Wendell SmallwoodRB · Rotational28%16 snaps
74Geron ChristianT · Rotational28%16 snaps
88Hale HentgesTE · Situational24%14 snaps
10Paul RichardsonWR · Situational24%14 snaps
66Tony BergstromG · Situational19%11 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational3%2 snaps
8Case KeenumQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCAaron ColvinCBJeremy ReavesDBDaron PayneNTColt McCoyQBChris ThompsonRBCam SimsWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Driskel pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).
Q4 0:54 · Lions · 3rd & 9 at DET 37 · gained nothing · -2.15 EP · −23.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
594
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1569%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.3966%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1331%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Commanders 46
No good6 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 21
Lions0Commanders3
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Lions 10
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Commanders 48
2nd quarter51 plays
Lions3Commanders3
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 5
Lions3Commanders9
Lions3Commanders10
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 45
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Lions3Commanders13
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Lions 12
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Commanders 32
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Commanders 13
Lions6Commanders13
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Commanders 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Lions12Commanders13
Lions13Commanders13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Commanders 12
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 2 to the Lions 39
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Commanders 35
4th quarter57 plays
Lions16Commanders13
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Lions 45
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 32
Lions16Commanders16
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Lions 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 37
Lions16Commanders19
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Lions 21
The period ended4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
