2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · FedExField

Detroit Lions

Washington CommandersWinner

DET -4 upsetU 39 ✓17 mph windLions closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:54, DET +28% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:54DET — WAS DET ball · 3rd & 9DET 63%

(:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:54DET +28% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).
Q2 · 13:09WAS +18% win prob5-M.Prater kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to WAS 6. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 9. 15-S.Sims for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:22DET +13% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left intended for 13-K.Harmon INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 35. 24-A.Oruwariye to DET 35 for no gain (13-K.Harmon).
Q4 · 1:58DET +12% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.McLaurin.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Commanders
Offensive plays	71	55
Total yards	364 (edge)	232
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	39% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	61%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	6	3 (edge)
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Lions outgained Commanders 364–232 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 44	4	2	1:44	Fumble
2	DET	WAS 38	6	17	3:24	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 30	14	60	7:21	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 24	11	71	4:22	Turnover on downs
5	WAS	—	2	0	0:15	Defensive touchdown
6	DET	DET 25	5	20	1:42	Interception
7	WAS	WAS 11	4	3	0:51	Punt
8	DET	DET 45	1	6	0:13	Fumble
9	WAS	WAS 49	7	42	4:24	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 30	8	26	3:27	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 5	4	8	1:12	Punt
12	DET	DET 42	6	19	0:51	Turnover on downs
13	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:14	End of half
14	DET	DET 25	11	80	4:57	Touchdown
15	WAS	WAS 25	6	4	1:18	Punt
16	DET	DET 2	11	51	5:50	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 21	4	-7	1:44	Punt
18	DET	50	11	57	4:10	Turnover on downs
19	WAS	WAS 25	5	30	1:46	Interception
20	DET	DET 35	4	3	1:20	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 22	4	3	1:25	Punt
22	DET	DET 27	4	3	1:59	Punt
23	WAS	WAS 22	9	54	3:42	Turnover on downs
24	DET	DET 25	5	12	1:01	Interception
25	WAS	WAS 46	6	33	0:32	Turnover on downs
26	DET	DET 25	3	-1	0:14	Interception
27	WAS	DET 25	1	0	0:02	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -4
Closing total: 39
DET moneyline: -190
WAS moneyline: +169

Lions closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39; the game landed 35 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DET 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Bill Callahan

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.