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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 8 at San Francisco 49ers 37. Final.
49ers -3 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
San Francisco 49ers 37, Packers 8 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:17, 3rd and 10, on A.Rodgers — 16.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:17 · 3rd and 10
A.Rodgers
49ers
(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -11 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner) [54-F.Warner], touched at GB 12, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at GB 8. 97-N.Bosa to GB 2 for 6 yards (69-D.Bakhtiari). 5-yds loose ball yardage on fumble.
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 29.
San Francisco 49ers 37–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:17, 49ers +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.Jones49ersQ1 12:27(12:27) 33-A.Jones right tackle to GB 31 for -1 yards (93-D.Jones, 51-A.Al-Shaair).
4.3pts
J.WilliamsPackersQ2 7:31(7:31) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to GB 17 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner). PENALTY on SF-99-D.Buckner, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at GB 17.
4.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Packers at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.32 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 3 of 9 on third down, against Packers at 1 of 15 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Packers156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -11 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner) [54-F.Warner], touched at GB 12, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at GB 8. 97-N.Bosa to GB 2 for 6 yards (69-D.Bakhtiari). 5-yds
Swing +16.6 for 49ersExpected points +5.90 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:17GB +17% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -11 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner) [54-F.Warner], touched at GB 12, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at GB 8. 97-N.Bosa to GB 2 for 6 yards (69-D.Bakhtiari). 5-yds loose ball yardage on fumble.
2nd · 7:31SF +5% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to GB 17 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner). PENALTY on SF-99-D.Buckner, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at GB 17.
1st · 12:27GB +4% win prob(12:27) 33-A.Jones right tackle to GB 31 for -1 yards (93-D.Jones, 51-A.Al-Shaair).
1st · 0:06GB +3% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 34 for -7 yards (50-B.Martinez).
3rd · 3:05SF +3% win prob(3:05) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at GB 26. 26-yac
2nd · 5:33SF +3% win prob(5:33) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to GB 28 for 22 yards (20-K.King). Caught at GB 34. 6-yac
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Coleman's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 13:07 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:07T.Coleman·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st3:17C.McLaughlin·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+30–10
2nd2:59C.McLaughlin·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+30–13
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Packers: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Packers: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.3349ers: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Packers: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.0049ers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 71 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against 49ers’s 44 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, 49ers 6.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, −9.3 pts, is past their previous low of −3.5 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.1 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 21.7%, is past their previous high of 20.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
49ers17.4%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.3 pts, 12.2 points below their season mean of 3.0 pts and 2.2 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dee FordDERobbie GouldKC.J. BeathardQBMatt BreidaRBJoe StaleyTLevine ToiloloTEMarquise GoodwinWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Mike PersonCNick MullensQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -11 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner) [54-F.Warner], touched at GB 12, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at GB 8. 97-N.Bosa to GB 2 for 6 yards (69-D.Bakhtiari). 5-yds loose ball yardage on fumble.
Q1 13:17 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at GB 25 · lost 13 · -5.90 EP · −13.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
36%
Yards
539
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.3563%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.0862%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.0140%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1770%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2533%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.2029%
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Packers049ers6
Packers049ers7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Packers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 13
Packers049ers10
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Packers 11
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the 49ers 41
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Packers 20 to the 49ers 28
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays
Packers049ers13
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Packers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
Packers049ers19
Packers049ers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Packers 42
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 28
Packers049ers23
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Packers 30
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays
Packers649ers23
Packers849ers23
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 35 to the 49ers 2
Packers849ers29
Packers849ers30
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 39
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 40
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Packers 45 to the 49ers 27
Packers849ers36
Packers849ers37
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Packers 15
The period ended15 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by category49ers
Packers0
49ers6
