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Indianapolis Colts 17 at Houston Texans 20. Final.
Texans -3.5 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
Houston Texans 20, Colts 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 2nd and 13, on D.Hopkins — 21.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 2nd and 13
D.Hopkins
Texans
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.0
Dome
Texans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Texans +21.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
W.FullerTexansQ3 5:36(5:36) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller to IND 24 for 51 yards (23-K.Moore II).
15.9pts
D.HopkinsTexansQ4 12:41(12:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Colts152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +21.0 for TexansExpected points +4.22 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00HOU +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:36HOU +16% win prob(5:36) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller to IND 24 for 51 yards (23-K.Moore II).
4th · 12:41HOU +15% win prob(12:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:05HOU +11% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller to IND 41 for 44 yards (39-M.Tell III) [93-J.Sheard].
2nd · 8:01IND +11% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II (93-J.Sheard) at HOU 43. 23-K.Moore II to HOU 42 for 1 yard (23-C.Hyde).
1st · 0:14HOU +10% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 87-D.Fells pushed ob at IND 23 for 24 yards (39-M.Tell III).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Hopkins's 30-yard touchdown catch with 12:41 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd13:46K.Fairbairn·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+30–3
3rd2:47K.Fairbairn·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+317–13
4th12:41D.Hopkins·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Watsonfrom D.WatsonLead never changed again+717–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryTexans
Colts5–3Texans
296Total yards396
4.6Yards per play7.2
47%Success rate40%
60%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays7
19First downs16
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Colts: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Colts: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Colts: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.16Texans: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Texans’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Texans 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −22.8 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −17.2 pts in week 1.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 11 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans14.3%
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.8 pts, 17.4 points below their season mean of -5.4 pts and 2.0 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 12:41 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at IND 30 · gained 30 · +3.31 EP · +17.7% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 86 yards from the HOU 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1743%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0159%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.5156%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.2211%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.9460%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.8040%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 44
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 42
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 1 to the Colts 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Colts 42
2nd quarter50 plays
Colts0Texans3
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 17
Punt12 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Colts6Texans3
Colts7Texans3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 5
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Colts7Texans9
Colts7Texans10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 32
Colts10Texans10
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Texans 18
3rd quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Colts16Texans10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Texans 13
Colts17Texans10
Colts17Texans13
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 18
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 34
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Colts17Texans19
Colts17Texans20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 30
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 47
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 40
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Texans 47
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Colts 35
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
