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2019 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 21, 2019 · NRG Stadium
17
20
Houston Texans 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, HOU +21% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 64 | 55 |
| Total yards | 296 | 396 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.6 | 7.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 | 0.07 (edge) |
| Success rate | 47% (edge) | 40% |
| Dropback rate | 44% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.11 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 9/15 (edge) | 6/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 25 | 8 | 11 | 4:15 | Punt | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 15 | 9 | 34 | 4:17 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 1 | 7 | 18 | 3:16 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 46 | 10 | 42 | 4:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | IND | IND 9 | 10 | 37 | 5:41 | Punt | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 35 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | Interception | |
| 7 | IND | HOU 42 | 8 | 42 | 3:27 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 25 | 9 | 75 | 2:35 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | IND | IND 24 | 11 | 58 | 1:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 51 | 3:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | IND | IND 34 | 11 | 66 | 6:09 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | HOU 25 | 7 | 57 | 2:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | IND | IND 28 | 5 | 6 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 14 | 9 | 86 | 3:37 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | IND | IND 25 | 7 | 22 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 13 | 7 | 27 | 2:41 | Punt | |
| 17 | IND | IND 23 | 10 | 36 | 4:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 41 | 7 | 24 | 2:49 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 37 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
