For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Tennessee Titans 42. Final.
Titans -4.5 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
Tennessee Titans 42, Jaguars 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 1st and 10, on R.Tannehill — 12.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 1st and 10
R.Tannehill
Jaguars
(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at JAX 18 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 17. 91-Y.Ngakoue to JAX 15 for -2 yards (64-N.Davis).
Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Tennessee Titans 42–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Jaguars +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.FournetteTitansQ1 10:12(10:12) 27-L.Fournette left guard to TEN 16 for 7 yards (94-A.Johnson). PENALTY on JAX-65-B.Linder, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23 - No Play.
6.5pts
R.TannehillTitansQ2 6:39(6:39) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.73 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Titans at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 6 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Jaguars170 of 177 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at JAX 18 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 17. 91-Y.Ngakoue to JAX 15 for -2 yards (64-N.Davis).
Swing −12.7 for TitansExpected points −5.36 for TitansThe model had Jaguars 6 points higher than the market did.play 36
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00JAX +13% win prob(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at JAX 18 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 17. 91-Y.Ngakoue to JAX 15 for -2 yards (64-N.Davis).
1st · 10:12JAX +7% win prob(10:12) 27-L.Fournette left guard to TEN 16 for 7 yards (94-A.Johnson). PENALTY on JAX-65-B.Linder, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23 - No Play.
2nd · 6:39TEN +6% win prob(6:39) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:55TEN +6% win prob(1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
2nd · 7:10TEN +6% win prob(7:10) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to JAX 21 for 24 yards (26-J.Wilson, 42-A.Wingard).
1st · 7:44TEN +5% win prob(7:44) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 33-D.Lewis to JAX 43 for 24 yards (21-A.Bouye).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Tannehill's 21-yard rushing touchdown with 6:39 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd6:39R.Tannehill·21-yd TD run21-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd1:55J.Lambo·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+33–7
4th4:53J.Lambo·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+320–42
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryTitans
Jaguars2–7Titans
371Total yards475
4.6Yards per play9.9
40%Success rate56%
39%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays11
22First downs21
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.36Titans: +0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.73Titans: +0.73 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Jaguars: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.09Titans: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 80 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Titans’s 48 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Titans 7.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Titans18.2%
leaned — got home · +6.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 18.2%, 6.0 points above their season mean of 12.2% and 1.1 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at JAX 18 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 17. 91-Y.Ngakoue to JAX 15 for -2 yards (64-N.Davis).
Q2 15:00 · Titans · 1st & goal at JAX 10 · lost 7 · -5.36 EP · −13.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 80 yards from the TEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
46%
Yards
842
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0675%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+1.2438%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.0946%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0817%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8-0.2288%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3114%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.5820%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Titans 23
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Jaguars 9
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Jaguars 12
2nd quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 33
Jaguars0Titans6
Jaguars0Titans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Jaguars 21
Jaguars3Titans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 26
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 30
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter48 plays
Jaguars3Titans13
Jaguars3Titans14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 21
Jaguars3Titans20
Jaguars3Titans21
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars3Titans27
Jaguars3Titans28
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 38
Jaguars3Titans34
Jaguars3Titans35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 35
Jaguars9Titans35
Jaguars11Titans35
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Titans 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 49
4th quarter53 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars17Titans35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Titans 1
Jaguars17Titans41
Jaguars17Titans42
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 3
Drive ended2 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 15
Jaguars20Titans42
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Titans 22
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 18
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Titans 32
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -4.5
Closing total
42
Jaguars moneyline
+198
Titans moneyline
-225
Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 42; the game landed 62 — over by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Titans 14 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Mike Vrabel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 12:56TEN +5% win prob(12:56) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 39 for 15 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
1st · 2:19TEN +5% win prob(2:19) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt to JAX 21 for 20 yards (36-R.Harrison). JAX-36-R.Harrison was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Jaguarscategory by categoryTitans
Jaguars0
Titans6
