2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -4.5 ✓O 42 ✓Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Tennessee Titans 42–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, JAX +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00JAX — TEN TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 77%

(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at JAX 18 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 17. 91-Y.Ngakoue to JAX 15 for -2 yards (64-N.Davis).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00JAX +13% win prob(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at JAX 18 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 17. 91-Y.Ngakoue to JAX 15 for -2 yards (64-N.Davis).
Q1 · 10:12JAX +7% win prob(10:12) 27-L.Fournette left guard to TEN 16 for 7 yards (94-A.Johnson). PENALTY on JAX-65-B.Linder, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23 - No Play.
Q2 · 6:39TEN +6% win prob(6:39) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:55TEN +6% win prob(1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Titans
Offensive plays	80	48
Total yards	371	475 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	9.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.36 (edge)
Success rate	40%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.73 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	0.09
Third downs	7/18	4/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 28	12	41	6:08	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 11	8	48	3:31	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 6	4	3	1:30	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 37	9	56	4:01	Fumble
5	JAX	JAX 15	7	28	4:12	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 27	8	73	4:09	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 25	10	49	4:39	Turnover on downs
8	TEN	TEN 25	5	5	0:43	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 21	6	17	0:53	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 15	1	0	0:14	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 36	6	48	1:47	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 17	5	4	2:22	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 26	2	74	0:11	Touchdown
14	JAX	—	1	0	0:10	Fumble
15	TEN	JAX 7	2	7	0:06	Touchdown
16	JAX	JAX 30	5	8	2:01	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 20	4	80	1:26	Touchdown
18	JAX	JAX 26	14	71	4:34	Touchdown
19	TEN	TEN 25	6	41	2:36	Fumble
20	JAX	JAX 44	8	56	2:57	Touchdown
21	TEN	JAX 40	6	27	2:03	Touchdown
22	JAX	JAX 12	12	54	4:59	Turnover on downs
23	TEN	TEN 11	8	13	0:41	Punt
24	JAX	JAX 29	9	43	2:31	Turnover on downs
25	TEN	TEN 38	3	0	1:36	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -4.5
Closing total: 42
JAX moneyline: +198
TEN moneyline: -225

Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 42; the game landed 62 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: JAX 7 days · TEN 14 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.