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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 41, Dolphins 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:37, 2nd and 1 — 3.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:37 · 2nd and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Dolphins
(6:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 35, and recovers at CLE 35. 6-B.Mayfield to CLE 35 for no gain (33-J.Wiltz).
Browns closed -11 and covered, winning by 17.
Cleveland Browns 41–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:37, Dolphins +3.9% win probability on one snap.
3.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
N.ChubbBrownsQ1 15:00(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to MIA 43 for 32 yards (26-S.Parker).
3.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsQ1 5:46(5:46) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to MIA 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 48-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIA 34 for 6 yards (31-J.Burris). PENALTY on MIA-33-J.Wiltz, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 28.
3.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Dolphins171 of 178 plays carry both curves
(6:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 35, and recovers at CLE 35. 6-B.Mayfield to CLE 35 for no gain (33-J.Wiltz).
Swing −3.9 for BrownsExpected points −3.38 for BrownsThe model had Dolphins 14 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:37MIA +4% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 35, and recovers at CLE 35. 6-B.Mayfield to CLE 35 for no gain (33-J.Wiltz).
1st · 15:00CLE +4% win prob(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to MIA 43 for 32 yards (26-S.Parker).
1st · 5:46CLE +3% win prob(5:46) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to MIA 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 48-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIA 34 for 6 yards (31-J.Burris). PENALTY on MIA-33-J.Wiltz, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 28.
1st · 1:59CLE +3% win prob(1:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:39MIA +3% win prob(8:39) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to CLE 27 for 4 yards (94-C.Wilkins). PENALTY on CLE-77-W.Teller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 27.
1st · 8:50MIA +2% win prob(8:50) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 6 yards (42-P.Laird; 35-W.Aikens).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Landry's 7-yard touchdown catch with 10:03 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:03J.Landry·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom B.Mayfieldfrom B.MayfieldLead never changed again+70–7
Browns ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Dolphins: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.24Browns: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Dolphins: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.39Browns: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Dolphins: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.08Browns: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 62 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Browns’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Browns 7.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 6 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Browns14.6%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.5%, 8.0 points above their season mean of 66.5% and 1.1 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
62Shaq CalhounG · Every snap100%63 snaps
—Julién DavenportT · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%63 snaps
63Michael DeiterOG · Every snap100%63 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Every snap100%63 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Every snap100%63 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Full-time90%57 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Rotational48%30 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Rotational38%24 snaps
42Patrick LairdRB · Rotational37%23 snaps
37Myles GaskinRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Situational5%3 snaps
38Chandler CoxFB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ken WebsterDBXavier CrawfordDBKeaton SutherlandGChris ReedGTrent HarrisLBIsaiah PrinceTClive WalfordTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Sam EguavoenLBJosh RosenQBJulie'n DavenportT
Cleveland Browns
46 dressed · 7 inactive
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%75 snaps
64JC TretterT · Every snap100%75 snaps
74Chris HubbardG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%75 snaps
78Greg RobinsonOT · Every snap100%75 snaps
13Odell BeckhamWR · Every snap99%74 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap99%74 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Full-time93%70 snaps
88Demetrius HarrisTE · Heavy rotation67%50 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation56%42 snaps
89Stephen CarlsonTE · Rotational48%36 snaps
81Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational32%24 snaps
83Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Situational24%18 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational12%9 snaps
67Justin McCrayG · Situational7%5 snaps
25Dontrell HilliardRB · Situational4%3 snaps
18Damion RatleyWR · Situational1%1 snap
3Garrett GilbertQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Robert JacksonCBOlivier VernonDEEric MurrayFSDrew ForbesGKendall LammTPharaoh BrownTETaywan TaylorWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield FUMBLES−7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 35, and recovers at CLE 35. 6-B.Mayfield to CLE 35 for no gain (33-J.Wiltz).
Q1 6:37 · Browns · 2nd & 1 at MIA 45 · gained nothing · -3.38 EP · −7.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 78 yards from the MIA 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
49%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31-0.1665%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2078%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.0136%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.4267%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1180%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Dolphins0Browns6
Dolphins0Browns7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 7
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Dolphins 45
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 19
Dolphins0Browns13
Dolphins0Browns14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 39
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 42
Dolphins0Browns20
Dolphins0Browns21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Dolphins 5
Intercepted10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Browns 31
Dolphins0Browns27
Dolphins0Browns28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Dolphins 6
Dolphins3Browns28
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Browns 18
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 29
Intercepted3 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 42
Dolphins9Browns28
Dolphins10Browns28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 11
No good11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 20
Dolphins16Browns28
Dolphins17Browns28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Browns 6
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Dolphins17Browns31
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Dolphins 21
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 44
Dolphins17Browns34
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 8
Intercepted4 plays
Dolphins17Browns40
Dolphins17Browns41
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 5
Dolphins23Browns41
Dolphins24Browns41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Browns 19
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
