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Chicago Bears 19, Giants 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:02, 1st and 10, on D.Jones — 12.1 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:02 · 1st and 10
D.Jones
Bears
(7:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 14 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at NYG 7. 97-N.Williams to NYG 3 for 4 yards (70-K.Zeitler).
15 mph wind
Bears closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 19–14. Biggest swing: Q3 7:02, Bears +12.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.RosasBearsQ2 5:50(5:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
10.3pts
A.RobinsonBearsQ3 12:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Bears won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Giants at 1 of 12 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Giants167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(7:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 14 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at NYG 7. 97-N.Williams to NYG 3 for 4 yards (70-K.Zeitler).
Swing +12.1 for BearsExpected points +6.82 for BearsThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 111
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:02NYG +12% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 14 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at NYG 7. 97-N.Williams to NYG 3 for 4 yards (70-K.Zeitler).
3rd · 12:19CHI +11% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:50NYG +10% win prob(5:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4th · 4:17CHI +10% win prob(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].
2nd · 4:25NYG +10% win prob(4:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 13 yards to CHI 48, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
4th · 2:55CHI +10% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton to NYG 29 for 17 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Robinson's 32-yard touchdown catch with 12:19 left in the 3rd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Bears ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Giants: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Giants: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.30Bears: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 58 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bears’s 66 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Bears 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, −4.1 pts, is past their previous low of −1.9 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.3% in week 11 against 20.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears20.5%
leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.5%, 7.9 points above their season mean of 12.6% and 1.4 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
76Nate SolderT · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Will HernandezG · Every snap100%60 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Jon HalapioC · Every snap100%60 snaps
82Kaden SmithTE · Full-time98%59 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time97%58 snaps
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Full-time95%57 snaps
87Sterling ShepardWR · Full-time95%57 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time85%51 snaps
15Golden TateWR · Full-time83%50 snaps
83Scott SimonsonTE · Situational18%11 snaps
12Cody LatimerWR · Situational15%9 snaps
39Elijhaa PennyRB · Situational5%3 snaps
65Nick GatesG · Situational5%3 snaps
22Wayne GallmanRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Chad SladeGChris PeaceLBEric SmithOTAlex TanneyQBEvan EngramTERhett EllisonTEBennie FowlerWR
Duke ShelleyDBAbdullah AndersonDTDanny TrevathanILBAlex BarsTAdam ShaheenTEBradley SowellTERiley RidleyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chase DanielQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 14 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at NYG 7. 97-N.Williams to NYG 3 for 4 yards (70-K.Zeitler).
Q3 7:02 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 23 · lost 16 · -6.82 EP · −13.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 97 yards from the NYG 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
37%
Yards
578
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2470%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1263%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.1682%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0250%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2050%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Bears 47
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 16
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Drive ended14 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Giants 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 34
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 16
Giants6Bears0
Giants7Bears0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays
No good4 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 24
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 35
No good5 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 21
Giants7Bears3
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Giants 7
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants7Bears9
Giants7Bears10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Giants 32
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Giants7Bears13
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 6 to the Giants 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays
Giants7Bears19
Touchdown3 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 2
No good3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 44
4th quarter46 plays
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Bears 44
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Giants 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Giants13Bears19
Giants14Bears19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Bears 15
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Giants 35
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Giantscategory by categoryBears
Giants6
Bears0
